Turfway Park Friday December 21, 2018
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves Secret Santa, Elf on the Shelf, Open Your Presents Christmas Morning, Not Christmas Eve, and Egg Nog. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge.
Let’s play some Reindeer Games at Turfway Park.
Merry Christmas, everyone!
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – Claiming 8000 6F 3YO&Up
8-7-3-1
Tonight’s opening race looks to be incredibly evenly matched. The ML favorite #3 En Hanse has way too many questions for me to endorse, so I will be looking elsewhere. #7 Bud’s Bayonet has had some past success at Turfway and he enters tonight’s race after a little two month freshening. He has been facing weaker, but he fits with these. #1 Plumbago looks to be in good form and is shipping in from The Mountain for Eric Reed. He has some experience at Turfway and Reed does rather well shipping. He attracted John McKee in the irons too. #8 At Guard has run a couple of thirds at this level at Turfway earlier this year. He looks to be in quite good form and has worked twice for Larry Smith here at Turfway. Perry Ouzts has won on him before.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000b 1 1/16 Mile F 3YO&Up
1-2-4-8
It’s going to be hard to argue against the ML favorite #1 Perfect Comic as he won by nine lengths here at Turfway three weeks ago. Strangely, you could make an argument that this race came up weaker than the field he faced three weeks ago even though it should be a slight move up in class. I tossed many in this race and the only contender I think can beat the favorite is #2 Bluegrass Beat. I’m pleased to see the recent Turfway works because he has been off for six months. I normally hate backing a horse of this level coming in off of a long break, so I’ll eat the chalk, but wouldn’t be surprised if the #2 gets it done.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 7500n3L 5 F 3YO&Up F&M
4-1-2-3
The odds-on ML favorite #1 Serious I Candy is definitely worthy here and she drops in class from a third place finish here at Turfway just eight days ago. She was claimed two races back for about the same price as tonight’s tag, so Jason Barkley won’t mind losing her. She will likely air these. I do see one horse that might be able to upset the Egg Nog. #4 Need the Wall won here at Turfway on 12/6 just one step down the ladder and she is 4/4 ITM at Turfway. She should also improve a bit as this is the second start off of a four month break. If I can get a bit of a price on the board, say around 4/1, I will play her.
Race Four: 7:42 post – Claiming 15000n2L 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
4-1-7-3
Small field, but evenly matched as the only horse I can toss is #6 Boastful Denial, so rush to the windows and your ADW because he’s sure to win now that I have publicly tossed him. #1 Red Kite just missed by a nose at this level going a sixteenth shorter back on 11/30. He led from the gate as the favorite in that race, but got nipped at the wire. There is no reason to think he can’t repeat that effort for a win tonight. #7 Thegistofit has no all-weather experience, but his Churchill Downs form suggest he belongs with these, although he hasn’t been much in his last two starts since his five month layoff. He gets a little class relief and that is sure to help his cause. #4 Get Tough has been away from the track for three months, but that doesn’t seem to be a problem for Tom Drury, who fires at 22% 90 days away. He broke his maiden here at Turfway with a gate to wire effort on 3/17/18 that is actually good enough to win tonight. Drury normally doesn’t ship unless they are loaded. He’s your winner tonight.
Race Five: 8:12 post – MSW 18.5 1 Mile 2YO
1-4-9-8
The two most experienced runners, #9 Unity and #4 El Ahijado certainly figure most prominently on paper, but they both have had ample opportunity to get it done before tonight. Of these two, I prefer the #4, even though the Wohler’s runner has demonstrated ability over the all-weather surface. It’ll be interesting to see the tote action on the entry. Both of these first time starters could certainly win at first asking, but I like the #1 Link to Destiny the most. Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad to have them both. Wesley Ward and Luan Machado have created quite a partnership this Turfway meet and I see no reason why it will stop tonight.
Race Six: 8:42 post – MC 7500 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
3-1-8-2
The ML favorite #1 Fun Sucker looks primed to break her maiden in her tenth start. I don’t love taking an odds-on MC favorite that has failed to get it done so many times. That said, she ran well on all-weather in her last race (here at Turfway) on 11/30 and just barely missed. She seems to have woken up a bit for her new trainer Adolfo Macias, but I just can’t ignore his 8% win percentage this year. Let’s beat her. #3 Ameribelle looks to be on the improve and is dropping a class or two tonight after a respectable Turfway outing on 11/30. She pretty much spotted the field a half dozen that night and made up some ground with a middle move before gassing out coming home. The recent workout from the gate shows me that trainer Rey Hernandez addressed the problem at the break and Luan Machado stays in the irons. If her price is right, I will play her over the favorite.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – OC 25000n1x 1 Mile 3YO&Up
7-5-6-2
#6 Absolutely Stylish could be absolutely anything at this point of his career for Mike Maker. His eye-popping effort on 9/8/18 looks downright gaudy compared to the others, but you are going to have to forgive a lot to play him. He tried Graded Stakes competition for the first time in his last race and it just went sideways for some reason. Add in the two month lay-off and a first appearance on the all-weather track and you have some reasons to doubt. #5 Huntin Buddy is just the opposite of the #6: he is 2/2 lifetime on the all-weather surface here at Turfway, he is on the improve, and he won his last race, albeit against weaker competition. #7 Normandy Crossing is a demonstrated all-weather runner finishing in the money in nine of his twelve Turfway starts. I am not thrilled with the small lay-off, but I believe trainer Susan Anderson knows what she has with him and has freshened him for this meet. Why not? He absolutely crushed at this level earlier this year and I expect the same tonight.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – Claiming 5000n1X 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
5-6-4-7
Turfway sprints have been dominated by horses off the lead and on the outside lately, the only problem is I don’t really care too much for any of the horses from the eight hole out. #6 Old Centre is the most experienced runner in the field and probably the most consistent. She fits at this level, then again it is a 5000 claimer, and I wouldn’t fully endorse a horse with 47 starts with none on the all-weather. #5 Put Sarah On just had her first all-weather start and proved she didn’t hate it. She had a really wide trip and chased next-out winner Lusty Get Your Gun in her 11/30 Turfway start. I like her upside the most.