Turfway Park Saturday December 28, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves bowl haircuts, bowls of cereal, bowling alleys, and college bowl games. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various horse tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
$52,216 in the Pick Five carryover from last night’s card. Fire away.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – MC 15000 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
6-8-11-3
The first leg of the Pick Five carryover feature ten ladies looking to get their picture taken for the first time. Though there appears to be a few complete tosses, I could see six of these finding the winners’ circle for the first time. Obviously, the 8/5 ML favorite #6 My Maiko looms as a huge contender based on pedigree alone. Galileo and Storm Cat progeny seem to have an affinity for the poly-track. That said, this Matthew Martinez trained filly doesn’t appear to be a complete standout in the PPs and she surely will be the most used horse in the Pick Five. I am going to use her, but I sure would like to find some value elsewhere. #8 Starvana is a little juicier at 5/1 on the ML as she finished third at this level in her first try over the Turfway strip. It was a distant third, but she has every right to improve in her second all-weather race. Getting Alex Canchari back in the irons won’t hurt her chances either. #11 Hoosier Gold Case finished a small length behind Starvana in the previously mentioned 12/5/19Turfway Park race. Jockey Rogelio Miranda is en fuego right now, so another improved effort is not out of the question. Yes, she was 90/1 in her last race, but she was out of race position the entire trip.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n2x 5 1/2 F 3YO&Up
12-9-7-5
A puzzling low-level $5000 claimer adds some intrigue to the sequence as I could see any of seven winning this race. While we can’t play them all, I’ll call attention to a few interesting things in the running lines. #5 Zandar loved his lone all-weather trip on 11/26/19 at the Ocala Training Center during their sales day races. New owner/trainer Brett Santangelo might have found a little gem in what appears to be an acquisition by private purchase. #7 Mystic Tiger is consistent as they come, but I wonder about the move to 5 1/2 panels for the first time in his career. Trainer Genaro Garcia doesn’t make too many mistakes, especially with horses in current racing form. I don’t think he is searching here. Using a bug-boy in the irons tells me he wants the weight break and may revert to running on the front-end tonight. #9 Tee Tee drops just a bit out of a 5 1/2 furlong sprint here at Turfway on 12/7/19. That effort alone fits with these and his ML is juicy, but likely wrong. Arch progeny love Turfway Park and his 5/8 ITM career record in Florence can’t be ignored. 7YO #12 Two Putt has been earning checks at this level all year, which tells me owner/trainer Eddie Clouston has him properly placed. He is also 9/13 ITM in his all-weather career.
Race Three: 7:13 post – MC 15000 5 1/2 F 2YO
2-1-5-3
Seven baby boys signed on for this MC $15000 sprint. It won’t take much to win at this level, so I am not surprised that the Wesley Ward trained #2 Uncle Earl was made the ML favorite at 5/2. If he is live at all, he will get pounded at the window and 90% of the horizontal tickets will include him. I like to toss this type of horses from my tickets because I get more value by beating them, but his 10/14/19 workout breezing from the gate spilled the beans. The other FTS #5 Howard of Luck has three useful morning works in the PPs, and, while trainer Billy Hardin has fired a donut with his FTS, the 11/29/19 bullet meant business. Experience usually means a great deal in horse racing, so I would like to find a previously raced to horse to back in this short field, but this race offers slim pickings in that department. I suppose I could see #1 Skatingonthinice improving enough to win out of his lone third place finish at this level at Churchill Downs on 10/30/19. He had an eventfultrip in his debut (experience is important) when he gave the field an eleven-length jump but showed some tenacity. Bug-boy Joseph Ramos could use his weight advantage by going to the lead and playing a game of “catch me if you can” on #3 Commissario. I have some concerns about the jump in class for his new barn as he was properly spotted in his last race by old trainer Brad Cox.
Race Four: 7:42 post – Claiming 5000n2L 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
5-9-6-10
It doesn’t happen very often, but I literally have no horse “on top” in this race as I found this even horse field very difficult and evenly matched. If this race wasn’t in the middle of a carryover sequence, I would likely pass the race or press the ALL button and move along. The ML favorite is 9/2 #5 Social Circle for Southwest Stables and Genaro Garcia. I find it interesting that his new barn claimed her for $10K on 11/17/19, ranher for the barn’s first start at $15K, and now drops her to $5K just six weeks after the original claim. It won’t take much to win this race, so her back class could make the difference and getting a seven-pound bug certainly won’t hurt. #9 Silky Appeal has been better since changing barns four races ago and her first poly-track appearance was a solid second place here at Turfway park on 12/13/19. She makes perfect sense at odds that will likely be a little juicier. The 20/1 ML feels like a ruse on #6 Run Like Rev. How can a horse that just graduated in a career-best race in her first appearance on an all-weather track be so dismissed? She probably won’t win facing winners for the first time, but she keeps solid bug-boy Joseph Ramos aboard, won on the front-end last time out with respectable fractions, and draws a decent post. You must use her in horizontals based on the possibility that she just loves a synthetic track and may have gotten a dose of confidence. I’ll be stunned if she is less than 8/1 and I will apologize to the ML odds maker if so.
Race Five: 8:12 post – MSW $46K 1 Mile 2YO
9-10-13-1
We might as well close an already difficult sequence with a twelve horse MSW for baby boys that has five FTS. I know that the five of you that regularly “Fade Me” know that I usually attack these races with tickets that feature the best-known runner and the best FTS. #9 Golden Endeavor ran a MSW wash-off at Churchill Downs on 10/27/19 that is easily the best race of any horse in the field. That wash-off ended up being run on a fast main track, but the follow-up race ended up being run under sloppy conditions which he clearly didn’t like. I am drawing a line through the 11/23/19 effort and using him tonight. #10 Hail to the Chief picked up a slice in that same CD race at longer odds so this Wesley Ward trained colt also merits respect in this field. Don’t be silly and leave #1 Subliminalcriminal off your ticket, especially if you are playing deep. Kenny McPeek moves this one from turf to the all-weather for the first time so he might have found something in this son of Goldencents. Speaking of Goldencents, if you can over the fact that #5 Gold Account is debuting for trainer Ignacio Correas without Lasix you should respect the decent workouts, especially the 11/17 breeze at Keeneland. Goldencents’ progeny win at 17% first asking, so we’ve got that going for us. Pay attention to #13 Drakesboro Wildcat drawing into the field. The statistics of the connections and pedigree line indicate that we should leave this one off our ticket, but the workout line is improving and strong, especially the bullet fired on 11/26/19. This one is likely live with leading jockey Albin Jimenez in the irons for the debut race.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 5000n2L 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
11-9-7-3
I’m using the ML favorite #9 Bivian B as the barometer for the other runners in the race. While this John Hancock filly has been facing much better than most in this field, her last two races haven’t been spectacular. She is returning to Turfway Park where she is only 1/4 ITM, but those races were run against far better competition. It’s likely that this 3YO filly has improved since her running lines in the previous Turfway meet. #11 Green Garnet completely whiffed in her first all-weather start here at Turfway on 12/7/19, but that was a few steps up the ladder. Owner/trainer Doug Danner is moving her back to a sprint and moved to new pilot Rogelio Miranda. She has Giants Causeway in her pedigree, so I have to believe that the first synthetic start was an aberration and I’ll give her one more chance.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – OC 25000n1x 1 Mile 3YO&Up
8-9-10-5
Mike Maker’s #9 Torazo is 7/8 ITM at Turfway Park and coming in off a brief two-month freshening. His workouts during the time away were very good and he appears ready to pounce tonight. Trainer Tommy Drury puts the blinkers on #10 Animus after a dull effort at Churchill Downs on 11/15/19. He is 3/3 ITM on the all-weather surface, albeit at Presque Isle, but he certainly merits a threat. #8 Eagle Pass has been extremely popular at the claiming box this year and he is making his third straight start for a new barn. It’s nuts that his worst effort of the lot was for Steve Asmussen, but, oh well. I wish I was getting an apprentice jock weight break in this start as I would like to see him a little more forwardly placed, but we can’t all have nice things. I’ll take the longer odds on top and go fish.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – Claiming 5000n2L 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
9-14-3-12
I don’t know how they beat #9 Aspens Little Zip in the closer. She was the favorite on 12/18/19 against a better field here at Turfway Park. She had every chance to win that night, but that race airs this group on the class drop for Genaro Garcia. I do have a little pause as the connections move look to Alex Canchari tonight instead of taking the weight advantage of the apprentice previously in the bike. #14 Patsy J drew into the field from the AE list, and I might take a stab with her and likely cover with her on a couple of back-up Pick Four tickets. Albin Jimenez is aboard for this class dropper and she is probably the best of the rest.