This Tuesday marks the debut of this new feature on The Daily Gallop. Unlike many of the other Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contender lists that are being put out around this time of year, this piece aims to be a bit different in that its approach to ranking these aspiring three year olds will be as if they are commodities on the stock market. Thus opinions will be offered on which horses should be considered major competitors to potentially hit the board in the Derby and therefore their stocks should be bought into as well as which horses are mere pretenders and thus should be divested from as their stock value is falling.
Just like a real futures index, this piece will try an provide projections as to which runners may offer the most value going forward up until Derby Day on May 4th. When considering possible candidates for both the BUY and SELL lists, two major criteria were taken into consideration. First and foremost, the horse must have run in a prep race on the 2019 Road to the Kentucky Derby on or after January 1st, 2019. Thus big names like Game Winner, Improbable, and Instagrand are disqualified at the moment as well as runners like Hidden Scroll; although in the coming weeks, all of these three year olds will soon be eligible to be mentioned on either list, provided they run in and earn points in a prep race.
The second item concerns runners that were on the Derby trail but have since been removed either due to injury or poor performance; these horses are ineligible to make either list as well as it is not fair to offer up opinions on horses that do not have any chance of making the starting gates on May 4th at Churchill Downs. A notable exception to this rule is Maximus Mischief, as he was originally being pointed towards Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park but was ruled out late Sunday afternoon after his latest work was not to the liking of trainer Robert Reid Jr. Thus, without further ado, let’s unveil this week’s Top 5 BUY/SELL Contenders.
BUY
1. War of Will: (War Front-Sadler’s Wells; Mark Casse; Gary Barber; 7-3-1-1; 1st in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), and 1st in the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 60 Kentucky Derby points)
Since debuting on the dirt last November at Churchill Downs, this colt has looked quite impressive in his two stakes efforts this year. He paired up 110 TimeForm US speed figures in both of those wins over the track down at Fair Ground and next month looks to complete the trifecta by capturing the Louisiana Derby (G1). War of Will is the only runner that has enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby (G1), so barring any major setback between now and then, expect to see him in the starting gates on May 1st.
2. Mucho Gusto: (Mucho Macho Man-Giant’s Causeway; Bob Baffert; Michael Lund Peterson; 4-3-1-0; 1st in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3); 14 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
This colt was clearly second best to stablemate Improbable after fading late down the stretch in last December’s Cash Call Futurity at Los Alamitos. However, over a wet track at Santa Anita, he displayed a new facet to his running style as he was able to effectively stalk the initial leaders through the slop before making a bid for the lead in the final turn and then drawing clear in the stretch to win by nearly five lengths. The 111 TimeForm speed rating he earned for that effort was a slight regression from the 113 he earned in December but that newly found running style versatility and affinity for the slop should suit him well going forward.
3. Tax: (Arch-Giant’s Causeway; Danny Gargan; R.A. Hill Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, et al; 4-2-1-1; 1st in the Withers Stakes (G3); 12 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Although Tax’s effort in the Withers was not all that visually impressive, as he narrowly held off Not That Brady to win by a head at the wire, he has continued to improve speed figure-wise in each and every start and the 118 TimeForm figure that he most recently earned ranks as the highest speed figure earned by any winner of a prep race this year. Additionally, unlike many of these other three year olds, he has already has valuable experience racing twice at nine furlongs and will likely get at least one more nine furlong race under his belt prior to contesting the Derby; in contrast, many of the other major Derby contenders will likely only have one or two tries at nine furlongs before stepping into the starting gates on May 4th.
4. Gunmetal Gray: (Exchange Rate-Include; Jerry Hollendorfer; Hollendorfer LLC, Pearl Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds; 6-2-2-0; 1st in the Sham Stakes (G3), and 2nd in the Robert B. Lewis (G3); 18 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
A bona-fide closer, Gunmetal Gray did well to be able to run on for second in his most recent effort over that sloppy surface at Santa Anita in a race; although he did have a fairly fast initial pace to run after. In his three Derby prep races thus far he has earned TimeForm speed figures of 112, 101, and 105 and if he continue to trend upward he should have a good chance of being competitive in each of his starts going forward. Currently Gunmetal Gray is under consideration for next month’s San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita although it may depend on whether or not Hollendorfer elects to point stablemate Instagrand towards that race as well.
5. Country House: (Lookin at Lucky-War Chant; Bill Mott; Shields, Jr., Mrs. J.V., McFadden, Jr., E.J.M. and LNJ Foxwoods; 4-1-2-0; 2nd in the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 20 Kentucky Derby points)
After breaking his maiden in impressive fashion in January at Gulfstream Park with an absolutely brilliant turn of foot down the stretch, Country House was ambitiously pointed towards the Risen Star by Mott. In a race that featured a virtual pace collapse in the final turn, Country House with his late-closing running style did well to charge down the stretch and get second, earning a 104 TimeForm speed rating in doing so. However, he appeared to be quite green during that stretch run and will need to show signs of improving maturity in his works leading up to a likely start in next month’s Louisiana Derby.
SELL
1. Maximus Mischief: (Into Mischief-Songandaprayer; Robert Reid Jr.; Cash is King LLC, and LC Racing; 4-3-0-1; 3rd in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2); 12 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Maximus Mischief put in a work for trainer Robert Reid on Sunday as he was prepping for an effort in the upcoming Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday; however, that work was not quite up to par for Reid and in fact Maximus Mischief may have injured himself slightly during the work. As a result, plans for this colt are up in the air at the moment. Additionally, after a solid performance in December’s Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct in which he earned a 113 TimeForm speed figure, he followed that up with a poor showing in the Holy Bull as his attempt to try and press the pace early on likely was his undoing as he was unable to hold off a hard charging Harvey Wallbanger along the rail as well as Everfast to his outside. The 110 speed figure he earned was just a slight regression but more worrisome going forward is his need to lead or be forwardly placed running style as it appears he may not have enough stamina to outlast his rivals should he face heavy pressure in the early stages of races.
2. Plus Que Parfait: (Point of Entry-Awesome Again; Brendan Walsh; Imperial Racing LLC; 6-1-1-2; NO BOARD FINISHES IN 2019; 4 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
2019 has been a massive disappointment for backers of this ridgling after he finished a game second to Signalman in last November’s Kentuck Jockey Club (G2). Thus far he has finished fifth in the Lecomte and then 13th in the Risen Star. His speed figures are trending in the wrong direction and perhaps a layoff or a change of scenery might be in order for Plus Que Parfait in order to get him back into proper form.
3. Knicks Go: (Paynter-Outflanker; Ben Colebrook; KRA Stud Farm; 7-2-1-1; NO BOARD FINISHES IN 2019; 18 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Knicks Go burst onto the scene late in 2018 when he scored a massive upset win in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in October at odds of 70.0-1 and then followed that up with a solid second place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) the next month at Churchill Downs at odds of 40.5-1. Since then things have gone all downhill for this colt as he was likely coming out of form and did not appreciate the sloppy track at Churchill when finishing 11th in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). His lone start of 2019 in the Sam F Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay was rather ignominious as the field let Well Defined get out to an easy early lead and Knicks Go futilely tried to chase after him from second, at least initially. Knicks Go was never able to get closer than two lengths to Well Defined and as the field turned for home, it appeared that the effort had sapped his stamina and he faded down the stretch and finished a well-beaten fifth. This is the second straight race now that Knicks Go has faded down the lane after being in an ideal stalking position throughout much of the early portion of those races; if this habit continues and his speed figures continue to trend downward, this colt is making it very hard to endorse going forward.
4. Gray Attempt: (Grayday-Consolidator; William Fires; Wynnstay LLC; Donna Moore & Jim Richardson; 5-3-0-0; 1st in the Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
After rattling off three straight wins including a narrow victory over Long Range Toddy by a neck in the Smart Jones Stakes in which he earned a 110 TimeForm speed rating, Gray Attempt threw in an absolute clunker finishing dead last in the Southwest Stakes (G3) on February 18th at Oaklawn Park. With his need to lead running style, Gray Attempt got out of the gates well in that most recent race when running along the rail but then was squeezed along that same rail in the first turn and as a result drifted way out. He initially dueled alone on the lead with rival Jersey Agenda before the rest of the field closed the gap and then simply watched as longshot Super Steed at odds of 62-1 blew past the field at the quarter pole and held on to win down the stretch. The initial contact on that first turn, combined with the brief speed duel and then subsequent heavy pace pressure from the rest of the field likely proved in combination to be Gray Attempt’s undoing and resulted in his poor showing in that race. Moreover, going forward it will be quite hard for Gray Attempt to be remain competitive in prep races with that front-running racing style of his as he will likely continue to encounter fields filled with other early speed type runners and if he was unable to withstand the pace pressure from rivals in a less than stellar edition of the Southwest Stakes it is fair to presume he will not fare much better against stronger competition.
5. Mind Control: (Stay Thirsty-Lightnin N Thunder; Gregory Sacco; Red Oak Stable (Brunetti), and Madaket Stables LLC; 5-3-1-0; 1st in the Jerome Stakes (Listed); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
Mind Control warrants inclusion on this list for the simple reason that he has not been seen since the Jerome Stakes which was run on January 1st of 2019. Although he earned a 107 TimeForm speed figure in that effort, the field that he faced was not particularly robust and the initial pace of that race was rather pedestrian. When combined with the front-running racing style that he displayed in that performance, all signs point towards not considering him as a serious contender going forward. However, the connections have indicated that he will make his next start in the one mile Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct next month, so perhaps he could remove himself from this list with a solid effort in that race.