Tampa Bay Downs Stakes Races Analysis — Saturday, January 18, 2020, by Ken McCarthy

RACE 3 PASCO STAKES 

3YO going 7f. 

Pace will be slow.

Hard to look past the 1-LIAM’S LUCKY CHARM who will drop down and cut back off a decent performance in the Florida Sire Stakes. Will be well bet and deservedly so, as he has battled better horses. Adds Blinkers too, look out.

2-BIG YES Claimed off a maiden win. Will struggle here.

3-GOLDEN CANDY Probably the engine of the race. All 6 career starts in the money, albeit at smaller circuits. Steps up, but his speed figures fit.

4-NO GETTING OVER ME 2 lifetime runs here at Tampa and this horse has done nothing wrong. Firing bullets in the a.m. Gets Camacho in the irons. Formidable.

5-MY MAN FLINTSTONE Meets winners for the first time, but has some win early influence. 

6-ALBERT PARK Has faced much tougher, can he fire off the bench? I would think so given his connections.

7-HE’S SMOKIN’ NOW Overmatched, but in good form, perhaps underneath

4-1/6/3-5-7

Race 7 WAYWARD LASS 

Fillies going 1 1/16m 

1-TWEETING Likely favorite draws the rail. Has been training well and draws a top jock

2-HELEN Prefer on turf, but gets Camacho and will be forwardly placed

3-TAP DANCE STAR Woke up last race, but perhaps overmatched

4- HUNTING SEASON Shug’s horse may surprise, but I prefer others here

5-JEHOZACAT If this is a heavy favorite, it is a vulnerable one. Hasn’t done well off layoffs. Others to like on top but should finish in the money.

6-CLASSIC FIT Has been facing tougher, but not sure what kind of trip she’ll get. Underneath.

7-ALL GOOD TIMES-Great form, in slightly over her head

1 / 2-4-3-5-7

RACE 9 THE GASPARILLA

3YO Fillies going 7 f. 

This is going to be a terrific race and a wide-open wagering affair. Pace should be crazy fast

The 1-WE THE CLOUDS is a daughter of hot sire Constitution and gets Centeno aboard. Won for fun first time out at Keeneland and has been training here very well in the morning. Should finish strong off a blistering pace.

2-CAMPY CASH First race in a while.

3-SWISS SKYDIVER got a couple of nice runs with Gaffalione, not sure how she’ll be handled today. Certainly could score underneath.

4-RANDIABBY Has not fared well vs. winners

5-VERUCA Don’t sleep on this horse with Camacho in the reins. Both maiden efforts were sneaky good.

6-PALICE MISS McPeek’s trainer numbers line up very well here for the daughter of Palace Malice who could hit in the money at a huge price.

7-JUDY’S WAY She’s regressing and not much of an option.

8-TWO SIXTY One of two horses here that have won in Stakes Races. Mark Casse will send this 3YO out to the lead, but will battle several up front. 

9-CECI VALENTINA is the other Stakes winner, but she has not raced since Thanksgiving and has not been pressed in the a.m. apparently.

10-MO CITY Gets one of the top jocks here in Morales who is brilliant in sprints, Trainer Stidhams numbers are great in this situation and this horse won easily here at this distance at 1st asking. A great option at a very solid price

11-GERRI B Off very solid maiden win at first asking, she may struggle with postposition.

1-10-5-6

RACE 4

This will be a tremendous finish, regardless of the start…I see 4-COLTRANE and the 6-DOVER CLIFFS battling it out with the 1-AND ONE right there as well. Good luck separating this tight field

4-6-1

RACE 5

Maiden 27K

1-SKY MISCHIEF held his own in long stretch at HAW

8-DUDLEY SQUARE Pletcher 1st timer

9-JANGADA Probably an even better 1st timer

1-9-8

RACE 6

1 Mile Turf Fillies Alw 22.5k

Should be titled the “Have and the Have Nots” in that 4 of the horses listed here cost 6 figures while the rest of the field are basically mortgage payments

1-SHELTER ISLAND High priced Chad Brown filly should come through

4-BELLO PORTO Won in driving fashion at GP last month and may go gate-to-wire

6-BUYONE GETWON On Paper 7/10 ITM increasing speed figures 30/1 m/l…won last time out on this track…could be a bomb

1-4-6

RACE 8

-Claiming 16K 1M Turf

1-WICKED BOY Cuts back after losing by a neck here on this course last month at this level

5-ALMOREB Gets a very good turf jock and is 9-3-3-0 at this distance-could surprise

7-DAD’S YANKEES In great form. Fits.

1-5-7-10

RACE 10

Mdn 22K 5 f

6-SILVER BANK Daughter of Central Banker has only met state breds but has shown signs for solid connections.

7-BUCKY’S DRAMA drops and lures Centeno

8-WRAPPING 3YO daughter of Data Link could surprise on debut. Watch tote

9-BRAMBLE BERRY Probably overbet, hasn’t fared well in sprints

6-7/8-1-9

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