RACE 1
4 – R WAY TO ESCAPE (7/5) – Takes a big class drop for the team of trainer Gerald Bennett (20%) and top jock Daniel Centeno (26% with Bennett). Toyed with nw/1 in 6mos. for $5k back in December at TB. Has positional speed & looks like the one they’ll have to step up for the money.
6 – DOROTHYFROMDUBLIN (3/1) – Stretching back out, should show speed here and looms the main threat.
3 – MY SOLITUDE (6/1) – At her best when using her speed. Can expect some of that here for top trainer Justin Johns (29% at TB). Should be a nice price & would consider at 8/1 or better.
4 – 6 – 3 – 1
RACE 2
5 – RATTLESNAKEROSE (2/1) – The team of Bennett & Centeno look to sweep the early double with a filly who hasn’t been seen since February. Her 2 shown works are good & this is the right level. I would not, however, take too low of a price!
2 – NORTHERN WIND (3/2) – Has decent speed, drops down to her lowest level for her new trainer Keith Nations who is 23% at TB. First time Samy Camacho rides for Nations, but he’s 21% over the last year riding at Tampa.
4 – COUNTRY LINEDANCER (5/2) – Came to life in last 2 & if you subscribe to the ‘lightbulb’ theory, this 3yo filly by Brooks ‘n Down (Montbrook) is your gal! Another who is spotted correctly. She should be the late player.
5 – 2 – 4 – 6
RACE 3
6 – DOLLAR BLUE (9/5) – By Exchange Rate out of a Street Cry mare, this gal ran a respectable race last time from an impossible post 10 at Kee going a mile over yielding turf against much tougher. Makes her 3rd start & takes the biggest drop in racing…logical choice.
9 – NOONSIGHT (12/1) – Showed some speed in her debut at Lrl & also drops into claiming ranks. Should handle the turf & the move to blinkers off is one trainer Sweezey uses effectively.
2 – FORT DESOTO (7/2) – On the board in all 3 starts, should be running on late and is a must use.
13 – FOURTH DESIGN (30/1) – Showed dramatic improvement over the grass & was pressing the pace when a broken rein took her out of the race. Gets a rider change but must overcome outside post.
6 – 9 – 2 – 13
RACE 4
6 – BIG AWESOME (3/1) – This race is loaded with early speed & horses that run their best when on the lead. Here we find an exception. He’s 6 – 16 over the Tampa surface & the race should set up nicely for him under the patient hands of Gallardo. Trainer Gerald Bennett came loaded for bear!
4 – MASTER RORY (6/1) – Turns back after a disappointing effort for a relatively unknown trainer around here in Michel Douaihy. The only other contender who should benefit from a solid pace. Would be willing to take a swing with if we get around 8/1.
3 – CRACKIN JON (5/1) – Top win percentage in the group (28%)…a stat you’ll do well with in main track sprints at Tampa! Another I’d be willing to take a shot with if he floats up to 10/1.
7 – SHE READ MY TEXTS (9/5) – Plenty of speed and has turned in the fastest numbers of the group. Trainer Kobiskie only 8% at TB over the last year. Capable of outrunning these if able to clear early, but I feel he’s vulnerable late in this spot.
6 – 4 – 3 – 7
RACE 5
3 – SHE’S RIGHT AGAIN (9/2) – Tepid choice in wide open event. A 4yo daughter of Discreetly Mine out of a Storm Cat mare, appears perfectly suited to the 1 mile distance. She gets in light at 115lbs. for trainer Sarah Nagle who is winning at 37% with limited starters.
6 – DESERT FOLLY (6/1) – A stone closer that may get overlooked here, but is 2 – 4 at the distance and has won against these type.
5 – TEARLESS (5/2) – Back to back tought beats and stretches out to her favorite distance where she’s 4 – 10. That said she is 0 -5 over the Tampa course. Will likely be on or near the lead and one I will include in my Pick 5. There’s enought doubt from those hard efforts to take a shot with a better price.
2 – POSTINO’S IDOL (5/1) – Has one run and utilizes it best coming from off the pace. 0 – 10 at the distance for moderate connections, but does attract the services of Daniel Centeno.
3 – 6 – 5 – 2
RACE 6
1 – JIFFY JOSH (5/2) – Bennett drops this son of Big Drama to the lowest level of his career after competitive efforts. Has tactical speed in a race that doesn’t show a ton on paper. Allen will be sending from the rail and could front this group all the way to the wire. (Broke his maiden here at Tampa for $25k last April.)
2 – MY BERNIE (9/2) – Toss that last race over the quirky Parx surface. Before that, a game 2nd over soft turf at the Meadowlands. Expect this one to try and go with Jiffy Josh early, making him a contender here. (2nd place finish in lone Tampa effort last year.)
7 – BURTON (6/1) – This son of Pioneer of the Nile is in the capable hands of Xavier Rivera now, so I’m expecting a top effort from off the pace. Has the look of an intriguing overlay!
6 – WILD WIGGLIN JACK (7/2) – Does his best work from off the pace. Not sure that he gets the right setup today. Has had many chances (1 – 19) … will only use defensively.
1 – 2 – 7 – 6
RACE 7
3 – ASTUTE WARRIOR (6/1) – Nicely freshened for this by the capable hands of John Rigattieri after an impressive stretch running victory against a solid group over a less than ideal course at Del. 3 – 3 in the money over the Tampa turf. In a race with many chances, offers a square price!
5 – FRANKLIN TOWERS (2/1) – Impressive wire to wire winner in latest, but the pace should be a bit more contentious as he shortens up to a mile. Fronted the field for quite a ways in the Tropical Park Derby at one time, so the quality is there.
1 – OUSBY (3/1) – Toss his last in an event that came off the turf. Should get good position early from which to launch his closing kick for Jose Delgado (28% in just 75 starts.) Can’t take a low price in an evenly matched field with his running style.
7 – MARKSMAN (5/1) – Two starts ago, this son of Arch just missed at KD at over 40/1. Finished a close up 3rd last time at Ind, but that seems to be what he does. His numbers say he can win, but he hasn’t shown that ability to close out races enough for me to rank any higher.
3 – 5 – 1 – 7
RACE 8
10 – BELTWAY (8/1) – Turns back after a pair of turf routes and drops in class. Many contenders here, but the race should set up perfectly for his late running style. He has the best late pace figures of any of the closers, but must overcome what undoubtably will be a wide trip. Hence the price!
1 – EL GRANDE ROJO (3/1) – 10yo is 5 – 12 at the distance and is Centeno’s choice over the 9. From the rail, should get away mid pack and will have every opportunity late.
2 – HUBBADAHUBBADABOOM (5/2) – Fresh off the claim for top trainer Justin Johns, this 3yo son of Shanghai Bobby appears the best of the speed, but his latest was a hard effort after a layoff. With others challenging him early, he is a candidate for a slight bounce.
11 – STRATEGIC EKATI (8/1) – Hard to trust those numbers from Tdn! If he runs to those numbers, he could be sitting on a winning effort! Another closer who would probably have to circle them all, but I will use on deeper tickets.
10 – 1 – 2 – 11
RACE 9
4 – LEMON PRINCESS (6/1) – Great race here! Last time out, this well-bred daughter of Lemon Drop Kid out of a Singspiel mare had an impossible post at Kee. The time before that she was in a $300k stake at KD. This is a more reasonable spot. Look for her to come charging late at a decent price!
9 – I GOT THE BOY (7/2) – This 4yo daughter of Candy Ride should benefit from turning back from a solid effort at 1 1/8 miles over a yielding course at Haw. Another who will be charging late!
10 – SCANDALEUSE (3/1) – Would expect her to take a step forward on the lawn for Motion, being a daughter of War Front. Must navigate an outside post. A definite contender but may be an underlay.
12 – TOUR D’ ARGENT (20/1) – Much improved as a 4yo, this daughter of Twirling Candy out of a Cozzene mare has tactical speed which she can use to overcome her post. If she takes another step forward, she could surprise at long odds!
4 – 9 – 10 – 12
RACE 10
3 – CHASITY (7/2) – Has a foundation after a pair of good routes followed by 2 turf sprints. Takes another drop to her lowest level and gets a marginal call in a race where you need to go deep!
10 – LA PICHU (4/1) – The price is cut in half for this daughter of Northern Afleet who also shortens up after a pair of troubled turf tries. Not loving the post or the low percentage trainer.
11 – ELLUSIVE BAE (5/2) – Turns back & drops, therefore the logical favorite, but is by no means a lock. Failed miserably as the choice here back in April and has the look of a money burner!
9 – CHOLITA STAR (10/1) – Finished nicely in 1st start after a year off, running her best figure. Not sure about the quick turnaround, but she is worth a look at a price with her late running style!
3 – 10 – 11 – 9
EARLY PICK 5
RACE 1) 4.6 / 2.5 / 2.6.9.12 / 3.4.6.7 / 2.3.5.6
BEST OF LUCK!
@LIGHTNINGJAY_