SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS BY @LIGHTNINGJAY_
(All selections made for FAST and FIRM. Follow me on Twitter for the latest updates.)
RACE 1
2 – TRACK TITAN (5/2) – Showed good speed going 7 furlongs in his first start after being away since March. Recently gelded and returns at the same level while shortening up. Speed and pace figures show steady improvement, so we’re looking for this one to continue moving forward and graduate today. A possible single to start your Pick 5.
6 – SILVER SPRINGS (3/1) – My absolute favorite song by Fleetwood Mac, but I digress…Ran well on the return at the Ocala Training Center and has been given some time since. Gets a great stalking post and has plenty of speed, but stamina is always the issue.
1 – MEXICAN LUCKY (7/2) – Comes out of the same race as the 2 and adds blinkers for this. Would expect Mendez to send from the rail and we’ll see how far he can go. No one in here has shown an ability to finish with any desire. Therefore, we’re going with the best speed figures and hoping they hang on!
2 – 6 – 1 – 4
RACE 2
3 – HELEN ROSE (2/1) – Found the competition to her liking here at Tampa after a brief freshening. Just missed last time at 7 furlongs and shortens up today 2nd time at the level. Gallardo opts off so that’s cause for concern. Could be the lone speed.
7 – MUSIC MAKES SENSE (3/1) – Should get a nice stalking trip from post 7 and that style has been playing well here at Tampa since the start of the meet. This is Gallardo’s choice and it would be no surprise if she gets the money late.
2 – MAKEYOURSELFATHOME (5/2) – Another late player who will have every chance down the lane. Shortens up and goes 2nd time at the level in a wide-open affair.
3 – 7 – 2 – 6
RACE 3
2 – KOOL KATE (5/2) – Best bet on the card. Winner of 6 of 8 on the turf and 2 for 2 at Tampa. Comes off a pair of scores over demanding turf courses versus allowance company. Gets a nice break going into this and has solid pace figures to boot.
3 – MARMALADE (4/1) – Goes for her 5th win in a row, all with Gallardo. Only 3-13 on the turf and many of those scores were against PA breds. Works just ok after the break.
1 – AQUEMINI (6/1) – Late runner needs an honest pace. Not sure she gets that but nonetheless, a solid play underneath.
2 – 3 – 1 – 9
RACE 4
5 – HOMER (5/2) – Coming off a nice closing effort when sprinting over the turf and drops to his lowest level after a break. Should be strong late to get the money.
1 – HEBGONE (12/1) – Plenty of speed from the rail and trainer Tsirigotis is very good with horses off a layoff.
4 – MIKADO (4/1) – Fringe player versus better, takes drop in class off the layoff and figures to run well here. Last work was sharp. Beware!
5 – 1 – 4 – 8
RACE 5
5 – UNION RANKS (15/1) – Had an impossible trip 2 back from a wide post in first start since August. Last time rallied between runners in a race taken off the turf. Should be ready to fire on all cylinders in this his 3rd start after the layoff. The red-hot Castanon gets the mount.
3 – ZEFIRO (9/2) – Son of Twirling Candy has a strong closing kick and may have gained some confidence from that last effort. Steps back up in a wide-open race.
6 – GRAY DUDE (5/1) – Florida bred makes his first start at Tampa and figures to be on or near the pace without a lot of company. That should make him tough to run down late and one to consider at a bit of a price.
5 – 3 – 6 – 2
RACE 6
3 – ST. PADRIAG (6/1) – 9yo soundly defeated $8k claimers here last January and comes in 2nd off a layoff when finishing 3rd against $6250. Today he’s in for $5k looking for his 11th win. 25-41 in the money and there’s no reason to expect a drop-off in performance today.
7 – THORNTON (7/2) – Late running style is something to look for here at Tampa and this guy finished a decent 2nd at this NW2 in 6 months level last time. Camacho is aboard again for the red-hot Carrasco.
9 – BACK TOGETHERAGAIN (9/2) – First time in the barn of Rini and should find the competition here more to his liking.
3 – 7 – 9 – 8
RACE 7
7 – SUNDRENCHED (9/2) – Hopefully this daughter of Get Stormy gets some firm going today. She ran an improved 2nd last time at Lrl and projects to be close to the early pace off the layoff and may offer a solid price. Improving numbers suggest another move forward.
6 – QUEEN OF COUNTRY (12/1) – Should finally get the turf she’s been pointed for after a pair of starts that were moved to the main track. Showed modest improvement in her 2nd start but appears to have taken a step forward after the break with some sharp workouts. Worth a win bet at the price.
3 – STRIKE AT DAWN (5/2) – $140k purchase goes 1st time for Brown and Gallardo. Expect the price to be low and the daughter of Declaration of War would be no surprise, but she offers little in the way of value. Work tab may suggest she needs one?
7 – 6 – 3 – 8
RACE 8
6 – TIGER BLOOD (5/2) – 6yo is at the top of his game these days and will look to take them wire to wire here. 5-6 in the money at 7 furlongs and the numbers suggest another move forward is very possible.
7 – EL GRANDE ROJO (9/2) – Tough call between the top 2 as this 11yo just keeps on rolling. 54-80 in the money lifetime and 11-13 at 7 furlongs. Closed to be 2nd on an off track against allowance company last time while posting a strong number. Centeno sticks.
4 – DISCREETLY PLACED (5/1) – Pinched at the break last time and lost all chance. Navarro has his best stock at GP, but because of that trouble, we’ll give him another chance here.
6 – 7 – 4 – 3
RACE 9
2 – STAY ANCHORED (6/1) – The early pace projects to be contested, so let’s look for a horse that shows strong late pace numbers. The 2 fits the bill and should offer some value.
10 – WELL BLESSED (5/2) – From an outside post she would be best served by stalking just off the lead. She’s proven she can win from off the pace and we’ll trust Centeno can do just that.
4 – BEECHWOOD (12/1) – Strong late pace numbers make her a nice longshot play!
2 – 10 – 4 – 3
RACE 10
5 – SUM MO CASH (3/1) – Flashed speed in progressively better outings and takes a drop in class. Likely spot for maiden score.
1 – MRS. POOCHIE (5/2) – Another speedy gal that faces much easier and draws the rail. Let’s see if she can hold on!
9 – CIERRA’S VINEYARD (8/1) – Beat half the field in her opener over the slop and has every right to move forward off that effort.
5 – 1 – 9 – 6
EARLY PICK 5: 2 / 2.3.5.6.7 / 2 / 1.4.5.8 / 2.3.5.6.9
BEST OF LUCK!
@LIGHTNINGJAY_