All selections made for FAST & FIRM. Follow me on Twitter for the latest updates after scratches.)
RACE 1
3 – REEDER (9/5) – The opener projects to have early pace pressure. Reeder goes 2nd off the claim for Navarro after winning while stalking at 7 furlongs. He shortens up today and drops to his lowest level which would be a red flag for most trainers, but not in this case.
4 – BIG AWESOME (8/5) – Another who has a similar style and shortens up from 7 furlongs for top conditioner Bennett. Could be a very chalky start to the card.
6 – SCHOTT (4/1) – Drops to his lowest level and turns back while making his 3rd start off a layoff. Has some of the better late pace figures and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get up late in this spot. Use all three in your Pick 5’s.
3 – 4 – 6
RACE 2
6 – MIGHTY MINI (3/1) – 5yo mare gave a strong effort in her return to Tampa off a layoff. She stretches out but has won at the distance before. Garcia’s choice.
7 – SCOTTISH SKY (4/1) – Improved in both starts since coming into the barn of Carrasco and has every right to move forward here.
2 – GO BLACK BETTY (7/2) – Was just a little short in her return but still, a very nice effort. Not much separating the top 3, but Garcia did opt for the 6.
6 – 7 – 2 – 3
RACE 3
3 – SUPER SUPER LUCKY (4/1) – Narrow call in a bad group. Wouldn’t be surprised by any result in here. On the plus side, this 5yo son of Super Saver makes only his 8th start and has faced better over at GP & GPW. Lost all chance last time at the start.
4 – ENDURING ARCH (3/1) – This will be his 34th start for a low percentage barn. It is, however, his first at Tampa and he does draw the services of leading rider Centeno. Tough to take from off the pace and a short price.
2 – I’M A CATMAN (7/2) – 6yo finished 2nd two back at this distance and did beat half the field last time. Not sure if he’s capable of taking the next step. A definite spread race in your multi’s.
3 – 4 – 2 – 7
RACE 4
7 – ADIOS NARDO (5/2) – Returned after being off for over a year with one of his best efforts. Tremendous job by leading trainer Bennett getting the 10yo ready. He’s beaten better and the fact that he isn’t up in class doesn’t worry me. At 10, who’s going to claim him? Comes right back.
4 – SALSA JACK (4/1) – Takes a nice class drop for Juan Arriagada who is having a fabulous meet. Camacho returns and this guy should be rolling late.
10 – GEH SCHNELL (15/1) – Should improve 2nd off the layoff. Draws a tough post in a race with plenty of projected early speed. Will need some racing luck but could surprise at a big number.
7 – 4 – 10 – 6
RACE 5
2 – CRIMSON STEPPER (5/2) – Decent opener for the daughter of Two Step Salsa while sprinting on the turf for the Bennett’s. You can’t always expect these youngsters to fire right back after being prepped for their openers, so this is a tepid choice. Centeno opts for the 5 but there’s speed next door in the 6. No worries as Gallardo takes the mount.
5 – TAKE ME HOME (2/1) – Failed as the favorite last time and has backed up down the lane in each of her 3 starts. There’s other speed in here so I’m not sold. Cuts back from 7 furlongs and Centeno does return.
7 – ADVENTURE LAND (10/1) – Not the strongest of Maiden Specials, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if a firster gets the job done. Daughter of Gemoligist has steady works and adds Lasix for the debut.
2 – 5 – 7 – 4
RACE 6
13 – STOCK TRADE (6/1) – Mott owns and trains this guy who is bred for the turf (Motivator (GB) out of the French mare Trading). This is a very soft spot, even from the extreme outside. Dangerous if he draws in.
12 – FRED’STWIRLINGCANDY (5/2) – Has enough speed to gain position from post 12. Another who has faced better, breaking his maiden at KD and then was given a shot in the G3 Bourbon at Kee. Distance should not be a problem and that can’t be said about too many in here.
10 – SHANA TOVA (4/1) – When last seen back in July, this 4yo son of Algorithms (Bernardini) ran a strong 2nd in an overnight stake at GP when saddled with post 12. Works have been steady and Camacho gets the call.
5 – LONE SENTRY (15/1) – By More Than Ready out of an A.P. Indy mare, this guy returns after a year with some impressive workouts. He’s bred to run all day on the turf so you may want to give him a long look. Centeno rides.
13 – 12 – 10 – 5
RACE 7
5 – TIGER BLOOD (3/1) – 6yo is gunning for his 4th straight win for the red-hot Arriagada. He’s not the only speed in here but has shown the ability recently to relinquish the lead and come on again. Loves it here at Tampa where he’s 8-10 with a second. Hard to pick against.
9 – SMALL FORTURNE (5/2) – Makes his first start for Baxter and first at Tampa. Gallardo aboard and from an outside post, he’ll look to stalk and pounce.
8 – WILD WIGGLIN JACK (8/1) – Comes off a pair of wins and the last was a career best. The waters get deeper now, and low percentage rider Uske rides in place of Hamilton.
5 – 9 – 8 – 3
RACE 8
4 – ARCHITECT (3/1) – Delacour sends out a strong pair, but we’ll give this daughter of Arch the top call off an improved effort last time. She makes her 2nd start off the layoff and Centeno returns.
9 – HALSEY (5/2) – Bred to be special (War Front out of a Hennessy mare) she now goes for Linda Rice and looks like the one to beat after that 2nd place finish here last time.
11 – MATERIUM (5/1) – Daughter of Street Cry just missed after almost a year between starts. She was given some time after that strong effort and has 3 works since. She can move forward but draws poorly.
4 – 9 – 11 – 5
RACE 9
5 – TRICKS TO DOO (8/5) – 4yo son of Into Mischief returned to Tampa from a layoff in the Turf Dash and was a rallying 2nd. The pace was ridiculous 20.2 & 43.1 and Gallardo is a master at rating a horse. He should be very tough in here.
8 – R LIMA JOE (7/2) – There’s no rating this guy. He knows one way. Now 7 and in the barn of Georgina Baxter who has given him plenty of time. Fresh and fast, they’ll have to come get him.
3 – SINDARIUS (10/1) – 4yo makes his first start for Keith Nations since September. His works have been good and he’ll be a late player at a price.
5 – 8 – 3 – 1
RACE 10
7 – CROWN ROMANCE (4/1) – Broke a step slow then rushed up to battle for the lead in his debut before tiring back in August. The son of Hello Broadway shows nice works coming in for Baxter and Centeno rides.
4 – LAND CODE (9/2) – This son of Dialed In would appear to want more ground than the 6 furlongs he’ll get today. That said, he drops from Maiden Specials and has a solid work tab.
11 – FIRST DEAL (5/2) – I’m not big on firsters by Navarro here at Tampa, so I’ll use this guy defensively in my multi race wagers.
7 – 4 – 11 – 5
Early Pick 5
Race 1) 3.4.6 / 2.6.7 / 2.3.4.7 / 4.7.10 / 2.4.5.7
Late Pick 5
Race 6) 5.6.10.12.13 / 5.9 / 4.9.11 / 5.8 / 4.7.11
BEST OF LUCK!
@LIGHTNINGJAY_