It’s a big day at Tampa on Saturday, highlighted by the Sam F Davis, which is a Kentucky Derby points race. There’s plenty of other quality racing on the card and some familiar names as well. I’m looking forward to finding some value and cashing some tickets.
For each race, I’ll delve into the different contenders and pretenders, letting you know who to back and who to bet against. Let’s jump in.
Race 1
6.5K Claiming 6f Dirt
Win Contenders: 5-1
Unfortunately, we’re not going to start off with anything too crazy here. I think 5 – Rattlesnakerose should be controlling speed and shown in the past that when she’s allowed to do her thing on the front end, she is very dangerous. There are some other horses that have some 1’s and 2’s in their running lines, but this filly is the only one who has shown that she consistently wants the lead. She could easily be a leader at every pole here and is the most likely winner in my opinion
The third choice on the morning line, 1 – Lil B Quick, has some dirtied up form with the last two outings. Last out she was against a speed bias in the track according to Timeform. Two back, she was taking on some stronger competition than what she’s facing today. Three back she was a winner against similar competition. It’s always hard to predict what the tote board will do, but I’m hopeful Lil B Quick might be a bit overlooked with those past two running lines and can run back to her previous form. She could absolutely win this if Rattlesnakerose has unexpected company up front.
Race 2
16K Maiden Claiming 6f Dirt
Win Contenders: 8-3-1
I’m against the morning line favorite in this race, 4 Princess Brienne. In looking through the field here, I don’t see a ton of speed. This should work against Princess Brienne who showed almost no early speed in her debut. Timeform has the fractions coded red from her debut race which means they ran fast early which would setup for a horse like Brienne. Even with things all her way she didn’t get home last time. Without the same setup, I don’t see her being able to break through here today. Short priced closers are not where I’m going to put my money.
8 – Impazible Girl has the potential to take this field all the way. There’s lots of questions with this filly, but we will certainly be compensated for those questions at 8-1 on the morning line. It’s the first try on dirt for this daughter of Mission Impazible, and if she takes after her dad, there’s a real chance she could find it to her liking. She could get some pressure from 3 – Cosi Momosi. However, she had to gun it to the lead last race because she had post 12, but had no kick in the lane. I think Cosi Momosi is more likely to settle off and give Impazible Girl control which Impazible won’t give up.
If you’re looking for a big price, take a peek at 1 – Eye on the Finish. Looking through the past performances here, there’s not a whole lot to go on. She’s been pretty soundly beaten in all of her starts. However, in her last start against similar competition she showed some tactical speed, moved into perfect position and then had nothing left in the tank. This is the first time for this horse to run 6 furlongs on the dirt, and I’ll be betting this is what she wanted to do all along.
Race 3
8k Claiming 7f Dirt
Win Contenders: 3-7-10
Most Likely – 3 – Sultry Samurai (6/5)
This isn’t a horse I would advise you to put a win bet on, but I think he’s the most likely winner here. This colt is making his second start with the Navarro barn and I think it’s reasonable to expect some improvement. He already sports the two highest lifetime Timeform speed figures in the field and if you can figure him for a move forward he can be really tough. He should be out on the front end as you’d expect being out of the Navarro barn and it’s hard to see him getting beat. Not a ton of value here, but a horse that you could single in some horizontal wagers.
Underneath plays – 7 – Actspectation (8-1), 10 – Fafa Fooey (8-1)
If you’re looking to fill out the rest of the exacta or tri, I don’t think settling on horses that might take a shot or duel with Sultry Samurai is a good idea. I’m looking for a horse or two that might be coming from out of it to pick up some pieces. I think both offer some value in an exacta. Actspectation will be making his second start for a new barn and ran well versus similar competition last time. His current Timeform figures are already right in the mix and with a little improvement, I think he can hit the board. Fafa Fooey is making his first start for John Simms. Simms has some good numbers moving horses from synthetic to dirt, which is what Fafa Fooey is doing here. Three back this horse stalked the leaders and gave it a good run to come in second. I think an effort like that should put him in the money.
Race 4
3 y/o Maiden 1m Dirt
Win Contenders: 7-2-1-3-4
This Maiden affair is really a wide open spot. I’ll be spreading here in any multi race wagers. If you were looking to take a shot, 7-Tabled might be a good spot to start. Tabled is making his first start since the ultimate equipment change, getting Lasix for the first time and is coming in off a layoff. Trainer Mike Stidham has been en fuego lately and Tabled fired a bullet in his last work February 2nd.
Of course, we might look back after the race and kick ourselves if 2-Texas Swing puts on a show. Second career start for Todd Pletcher and Johnny Velasquez is in town to ride. This is a formula that makes noise on the derby trail so be careful if you leave him out of your wagers.
Also worth a look here is 1-Safe and Sound. Ignacio Correas is hitting at about 14% with his first time starters. What I really like about this one is he has 11 works without a break, all coming on the Tampa surface which is historically a little tricky for some runners.
In multis, I would also include 3 – Giocare, a first time starter for Pletcher and 4 – Wind Ridge, a first timer for Christophe Clement who is hitting at 30% with his first timers over the past year.
Race 5
3 y/o Maiden Fillies 6.5f Dirt
Win Contenders: 4-7-11
Another race that’s going to be wide open with 5 of the 11 runners never having started before. Of those that haven’t started before I would lean on 4-Gesture. Trainer Jonathan Thomas is hitting at 14% over the past year with his debut runners and Johnny V in the irons is a plus as well.
Of those that have raced, I think I would prefer 7-Recoded. This Ian Wilkes charge is coming in off a bit of a layoff, but gets a jockey upgrade to Julien Leparoux. She has some literal muddied form as she gave way in the slop last time out in a race that might have been too far anyway. Wilkes is known as a guy who improves his horses the more they run so a step forward could be likely.
I’m actually against the morning line favorite 11-Shari’s Tune here. She got a soft lead last time out and couldn’t finish the job. Now she’s posted out wide and is going to have to use to make the lead which may very well be contested here. If she couldn’t finish the job last time, it’s looking like a more difficult task here.
Race 6
22K Allowance 9f Turf
Win Contenders: 7-12-5-8
When Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables team up, the horse will usually take money and will be pretty likely to win. I don’t think anything is too different here. However, for the short price that 8-Tiltingatwindmills will be here, she doesn’t really have the speed figures to back it up. She’s also been coming from out of it in all her starts so she’s going to have to get a trip. I wouldn’t want to get knocked out of multi race wagers by her, but I also think she can be beaten.
12-Lady Oxbow is a candidate to pull an upset here. She closed well from way out of it last time out with absolutely no pace to speak of. This will be her second start off a layoff so I think some improvment is likely and put hers right in the thick of it.
5-With Herself put the blinkers on for Graham Motion who I always respect because he typically spots his horses very competitively. With Herself showed nothing early in her last start but had some kick coming for home. It was too little too late in that race, which was pretty salty as the winner, Mean Mary, just scored a graded stakes win two weekends ago.
7-East Coast Swing could also jump into the money here at 10-1 on the morning line. She projects as controlling speed here in her first start for Rodolphe Brissett. Jose Ortiz is aboard and certainly knows how to win from the front end. She’s been off for a year, however, but I think it’s fair to project plenty of improvement moving from a 3 year old to 4. This is a horse I will certainly be building some tickets around.
Race 7
3 y/o Maiden 6.5 Dirt
Win Contenders: 6-8
Sometimes maiden races can lead to some creative ideas. Sometimes you can fall back on a tried and true formula. The formula’s name is Todd Pletcher. Pletcher has two runners in here, 6-Silver Maker and 8-Semper Fi. Silver Maker is a son of Empire Maker who is owned by Mike Repole and is being ridden by Jose Ortiz. Semper Fi is a son of Carpe Diem who is owner by Winstar and China Horse Club and being ridden by Johnny V. Both horses are screaming Derby trail, I’d be betting one breaks through here. I’d try and get by with only those two to start the pick 6.
Race 8
G3 Endeavor Stakes 9f Turf
Win Contenders: 7-6
While we’re in the mood not to overthink things, we walk right into the most likely winner on the card, 7-Got Stormy. She towers over this field on speed figures, can make her own trip and has all sorts of a class edge on her competition. She’s a single in multis or pass the sequence. It’s not gonna make you rich, but it’ll keep you alive.
If you’re looking for someone to fill out the exacta, I think 6-Kelsey’s Cross is worth a look. This is her second start off the layoff and at age 4. Her last race was a mile and half and it proved a little too far for her while chasing the loose leader. The good news is that this is a cutback and she should be dead fit. I’m expecting improvement here and would be happy to play a cold exacta 7-6 here.
Race 9
Suncoast Stakes for 3y/o Fillies 1m Dirt
Win Contenders: 3-7-2
This was a tough race to parse through. Lots of fillies with similar types of ability. I don’t think it would be a bad idea to spread a little in this race to make it through a pick 5 or 6.
3-Two Sixty has to be respected here as she’s shown she wants the lead and is going to get it. There’s nobody else in this field with that kind of speed so I think she should be out on the front end with control. She’s shown she can take a field a long way in winning the My Dear Girl Stakes back in September. She would be a very likely winner here.
If Two Sixty can’t get the job done, 7-Blame Debbie is the likely alternative. She ran well chasing a loose leader with a speed bias in Lake Avenue that day, who is a very classy filly in her own right. I think it’s fair to expect improvement in her 4 year old debut and she has enough tactical speed to make a good trip.
I would also give 2-We the Clouds a look here as well. Last seen chasing Two Sixty around the track and against the speed bias according to Timeform, this daughter of Constitution should get a fair shake here. She should work out a nice pocket trip from in the inside, pop out in the stretch and see if she’s good enough.
Very quickly, I’m not a fan of either favorite here, Motu or Comical. Comical is that horse we see each year that hits the board in 5 horse fields and everyone keep waiting for them to break through. The switch the Asmussen barn could give some hope for improvement, but as the favorite I’m not willing to find out. Motu made a nice move on the turn last out in the Golden Rod, but I think she moved up in the slop. I always pause when a horse’s best speed figure comes on an off track. She’ll have to prove it to me.
Race 10
G3 Tampa Bay Stakes 9f Turf
Win Contenders: 1-2-4
Timeform is predicting a fast pace in this race and I would tend to agree. Real Story, Renaissance Frolic, Admiralty Pier and Halladay all like to be on or close to the lead. It seems hard to imagine any one of them being able to finish the race on top.
My most likely winner here is 1-March to the Arch. This Casse runner dances all the dances last year and was especially effective on firm going, which he should see on Saturday. I’m expecting improvement in his second start of the year and I think is someone you can lean on in a multi race sequence.
2-Devamani and 4-Caribou Club will also be in the mix coming down the stretch. Devamni is first time Chad Brown, but I would expect him to be much lower than his 8-1 morning line which isn’t as enticing to me. Caribou Club is a legitimate contender but Tom Proctor runners usually need a race before they are at their best and I would be betting on that in this case.
Race 11
Sam F Davis – Kentucky Derby Points Race – 9f Dirt
Win Contenders: 8-4-6
4-Independence Hall will be the favorite in this one and well deserved. 6-Premier Star is no slouch himself here either. I think that Independence Hall is the most likely winner and Premier Star is a very reasonable alternative. However, there’s not a ton of money to be made there. So let’s think outside the box a little bit.
Let’s assume Independence Hall and Premier Star go out to the lead and hook up much earlier than anyone planned. They duel each other for awhile and suddenly they are much more vulnerable than they appear on paper. Who’s going to pick up the pieces? I’ll be betting on 8-Chapalu. Making his 3 year old debut for Arnaud Delacour, this colt is making his first career start on dirt. I think he can get a nice tracking trip behind the leaders and if one should falter, he can pounce. Assuming natural improvement from 2 to 3, his speed figures will be very competitive here.
Race 12
16K Claiming 1m Turf
Win Contenders: 3-1-4-5-9
This was a very difficult race to make heads or tails for me. I will definitely be spreading here on my horizontal wagers because I think this is a wide open race. As you might have been able to gather, I prefer horses with some speed. 3-Itsagimme’s Girl, 4-Callie California and 5-Tearless should all be forwardly placed in this one. Itsagimme’s Girl has the back class to win this race as she won at this level last year on March 15th. Tearless also has plenty of back class if she can return to form. I certainly think she’s better than she showed last time out as she had nothing left in the lane. I’m going to call that effort a prep and look for better here. Callie California’s win 3 back produced a figure that would win today’s race. It was done while controlling the race, but there’s no reason to think she couldn’t do the same here.
If that trio happens to go too fast, there are a couple of late runners that make sense here too. 9-Igottawhiteface had a nice run to get up for third last out against similar competition. If the pace were to really quicken here, she would be the beneficiary. 1-Showboating finished a non threatening 5th last out, but got jammed up coming around the turn and struggled to find running room until it was too late. He showed some kick in the lane late and I think it’s fair to expect another step forward in this race from the 4 year old making her second start of the year.