Tampa Bay Downs Racing Analysis — Saturday, December 15, 2018, by Jay Cymerman

RACE 1  (Selections made for MAIN track)

8 – TULA – (4/1) – Too bad the weather has forced this one to the main track as it’s a pretty nice group & I’m sure there’ll be scratches.  I like the 2 turn experience and nice late pace figures on this royally bred gal.  The track has been playing to closers & fitness separates contenders from pretenders.  She adds lasix for this & rates a slight call.

11 – TWIXT AND SHOUT (5/1) – Always like to see 2 sprints to a route for a young runner.  Godolphin entry has been working well for this coming off a nice break and would be no surprise.

12 – WHATEVERUSAYDEAR (15/1) – Another who goes 2 sprints to a route.  She should appreciate the added distance for Centeno and top conditioner Bennett.

3 – BOURBON ENDOWMENT (10/1) – I like the small break between those first two efforts for her as well.  She ran ok at KD, taking some tote action.  Her works have been good since & she has every right to take a step forward in a wide open event.

8 – 11 – 12 – 3

RACE 2

8 – NO CHOICE (5/1) – Another wide open race.  Early pace advantage for Gallardo & O’Connell.  I don’t mind the small step up in class as there are no killers.  The track has not been kind to front runners so demand full value.

12 – PAYNT GUNNER (8/1) – Tired badly in debut as even money choice and now drops to the claiming ranks while shortening up.  Gallardo opts off, but would consider at the price.

9 – POITIER (9/2) – Ran gamely here last time while on the lead.  Doesn’t have the early numbers to front this group but appears in good form and is capable of improving.

8 – 12 – 9 – 4

RACE 3 (Selections made for MAIN track)

2 – DRILLIANT (8/1) – You need to look past the troubled beginnings & some really soft turf in those first 3 starts.  The son of Drill has been working fast here at TB and has the look of a live longshot.

4 – ROHRBACHER (12/1) – Had trouble in debut at the start, but made a nice middle move before flattening as the choice.  Adds blinkers for this and is working well for Stidham.  Worth a win bet at anything close to the morning line.

8 – LORD DRAGON (4/1) – Main track should not be a question, but needs to take the next step.  Gallardo aboard, and may be a bit of an underlay here.

2 – 4 – 8 – 1

RACE 4

7 – FLORIDA FUEGO (5/2) – Took a minor stake here in March at the distance.  2 sharp efforts over the turf and a nice cut back for this.  Paco aboard…lookout!

2 – BROADWAY RUN (3/1) – A few question marks…Tries dirt for first time, comes back quickly & the 7 furlongs may be a bit out of her comfort zone.  That said, she did run 2nd at Bel at this distance.

4 – SIVER BAY (9/2) – Another who might be best at 6 furlongs, but should nonetheless be challenging for the win.  Could be a bit short.

7 – 2 – 4 – 6

RACE 5

9 – READY AND RICH (2/1) – Money burner has not shown the desire to pass late.  Normally a horse I would bet against, but this is an easier spot.  If not today, would expect a drop to the claiming level next.

8 – CAVE RUN (10/1) – Regally bred Godolphin runner has been showing signs in the A.M. and could pop at first asking here.

6 – RANGER UP (5/2) – Another well-bred firster, this one goes for Pletcher.  Nothing spectacular in the morning.  Without knowing, it might be that his future is on the turf.

9 – 8 – 6 – 11

RACE 6

3 – MERCUSIO (9/2) – That maiden win at GPW was impressive and the same can be said for his works since.  Dismiss any good thing like this from Bennett at your own risk!

7 – GLADIATOR KING (5/1) – Overmatched in the G2 Remsen, this son of Curlin flashed 21.3 speed over the turf in breaking his maiden.  The turn back in distance may have him finishing best!

4 – XY SPEED (5/1) – Broke his maiden over the slop at Prx for Navarro but may be best suited for the turf.

3 – 7 – 4 – 8

RACE 7

2 – WORLD OF TROUBLE (1/1) – 3rd in the TB Derby & just missed in the BC Turf Sprint.  The obvious class of these.  The only question may be the 7 furlongs?

3 – WEISSER (8/1) – 1 – 1 at the distance and the turn back should be perfect for this.  If the top choice struggles, this is the late player I want!

5 – NOBLE DRAMA (4/1) – Another who should be finishing at the end but may have too much to do.

2 – 3 – 5 – 1

RACE 8

6 – CLOUD CHARMER (3/1) – Overmatched at 7 furlongs against a salty group at Kee.  This is a much easier spot.  Draws the services of Gallardo.  Still, I would not be willing to take too low of a price in a wide open event.

12 – AWESOME PARK (10/1) – Toss that last effort as she broke through the gate.  Plenty of speed here and adds blinkers for this.   May forget to stop at a nice price!

9 – JEANNIE’S BEEPBEEP (10/1) – Firster by Successful Appeal showing o.k. in the morning and adds lasix for debut.  One to watch in the paddock and on the tote.

6 – 12 – 9 – 7

RACE 9

10 – LOVESICK (5/2) – Could not have been more impressive in winning the Juvenile Filly Sprint at GPW last time.  6 furlongs in 1:09.4 before being wrapped up late.  Talent abounds along with potential!  Paco stays aboard on my best bet of the day!

11 – INTO THE SOUTH (7/2) – Been facing some good quality and should be very tough in here.  Worked a bullet the other day and looms the danger.

4 – FASHION FAUX PAS (3/1) – Comes off a nice maiden win at Lrl but gets the acid test here.  Centeno for Delacour.

10 – 11 – 4 – 5

RACE 10

2 – JUST CALL SAUL (15/1) – Had trouble early & late in her debut, yet was only beaten 2 lengths.  This daughter of Two Step Salsa has every right to improve off that effort and has the look of a live longshot.

5 – WILLTHISSHIPSAIL (3/1) – Did not finish strong in those 2 efforts at PID, but drops to the claiming ranks and is dangerous here.

12 – WIWI CELEBRATION (5/1) – Returned off light freshening to run well here and now drops in class.  Another step forward expected.

2 – 5 – 12 – 13

LATE PICK 5

RACE 6)   3.7 / 2.3 / 6.7.9.12 / 10 / 2.5.12.13

BEST OF LUCK!

@LIGHTNINGJAY

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