TAMPA BAY DOWNS – SATURDAY, DEC. 8, 2018
SELECTIONS & ANALYSIS BY @LIGHTNINGJAY_
RACE 1
3 – DIPLOMATIC AFFAIR (2/1) – None of these gals are at the top of their game, (to say the least). Usually, when mares start to go off form, they tend to stay off form rather than bounce back. Therefore, no result here would surprise me. That said, my choice is the obvious class dropper for top trainer Georgina Baxter. She has some speed and gets Gallardo.
2 – MISS VISCONTI (4/1) – Another class dropper who might benefit from that turf effort where she was 1-24 going in. If right, look for her to be within range to close late.
4 – CHARMING VERSE (7/2) – 7-11 in the money here at Tampa and should contest the pace which makes her a threat.
3 – 2 – 4
RACE 2
7 – BARTLETTS MARK (5/2) – Ran a nice 2nd two starts ago at Bel for $20k. Now 2nd off the layoff, drops & and should be either on or just off the lead.
8 – FUELINJECTEDPRAYER (7/2) – Had a troubled trip last time as the favorite and the connections show a bit of confidence with the modest step up in class.
1 – CADES CODE LOOP (3/1) – Been away a year & drops to the claiming level for modest connections. Did flash early speed but was away slowly each time and had to be rushed to the front. Working ok now & gets the rail which may be a bit of a disadvantage!
7 – 8 – 1
RACE 3
5 – TALON (10/1) – This well bred 3yo (Candy Ride out of a Pulpit mare) could yet be any kind. Returns after a year with some nice works for new connections. There should be enough pace for him to run at. Would be wise to see how he’s doing in the paddock.
2 – LONGDEN (GB) (9/5) – The high early hopes for this Godolphin runner never materialized under the master Bob Baffert. Now in the hands of Eoin Harty, this son of Bernardini finds a much softer spot. He’s liable to show speed here & gain confidence.
6 – ROAD TO DAMASCUS (8/1) – Another regally bred 3yo that didn’t pan out. This time, under the care of Todd Pletcher. He did break his maiden here in January and has the right to run well in this spot.
5 – 2 – 6 – 3
RACE 4
1 – EARLY DELIGH (10/1) – For those of you that subscribe to the “lightbulb” angle, this is the horse for you. Gave way late at 7 furlongs 2 back, then won nicely next time at 6 furlongs. This son of Rock Hampton (Storm Cat) is likely to be on or near the lead and offers a very nice price while being entered at the proper level.
6 – OLLIVANDER (4/1) – Given some time to freshen for this by Hamm with Gallardo up. Has been going 2 turns on the synthetic and now drops and shortens. He should be the late player but not sure he gets there in time.
7 – RUNNIN FOR DACE (3/1) – Has solid early pace numbers and should be prominent early. This really isn’t a class rise when compared to the WO circuit. He does seem to lack a bit of that ‘killer instinct.’
5 – RETURN VIDEO (6/1) – Has hit the board in 5 of 6 at TB and a would be a great choice underneath.
1 – 6 – 7 – 5
RACE 5
1 – BRUNETTE (5/2) – Plenty of speed and from the rail, she looks like the one they’ll have to run down to get the money.
4 – GO BLACK BETTY (3/1) – Looms the main danger on the class drop.
7 – LITTLE CHICK (5/1) – Appears to be the late player here and is not without a chance. Been running on turf & synthetics lately, but this is a pretty big class drop. Will use at a fair price!
1 – 4 – 7
RACE 6
1 – TOO MUCH DETAIL (4/1) – Should move forward off that opener at Kee where she was never asked but did run on well through the line.
4 – MATERIUM (6/1) – Another who should’ve at the very least gained experience from that opener. Bred for the turf & working well for Delacour after 9 months off.
3 – SONG OF MINE (9/2) – She was in a bit tough in her first 3 starts & tries the turf here. Not sure she’ll show that much improvement but she’s in with a look.
9 – COUNTENANCE (5/1) – Off since April but did run competitively in her 2 starts. Gallardo for Clement.
1 – 4 – 3 – 9
RACE 7
1 – LOGSDON (5/2) – Drops in class and cuts back from 7 furlongs where she’ll look to wire the field from the rail.
4 – STRAIGHT MADNESS (5/1) – Back to back winning efforts from off the pace makes this gal dangerous here for top rider Gallardo.
6 – HONEY LOVE (15/1) – Gets a class test but she did recover from an awkward start & circle the field drawing off by 6 at GPW. Would definitely check out in the paddock & is the type of longshot that makes sense as these 2 year olds can improve dramatically.
1 – 4 – 6
RACE 8
1 – GIRL ON A MISSION (6/1) – Bred for the turf, this daughter of Noble Mission finds a field that she should be competitive in from a cozy inside draw.
9 – MOCHI (9/2) – Godolphin owned daughter of Street Boss has come up a bit short in each of her starts, but should be right there again and may take the next step as she moves from synthetics to the turf.
6 – MARIE CURIE (6/1) – Bred to run all day on the turf, this daughter of Kitten’s Joy adds lasix for her debut. Motion is capable with firsters, but she’ll likely need one.
1 – 9 – 6
RACE 9
5 – PANGO (5/2) – Has good early pace numbers and looks to be on or near the lead which is the place to be at TB. Drops to the claiming ranks for this.
3 – HIGHLAND PARK HERO (2/1) – A little light on early pace numbers & from watching his replays, he looks like he’ll be stalking here.
9 – METALLIC (9/2) – Another who takes a drop in class, but from an outside draw, with his stalking/closing style, he’ll have to overcome a wide trip.
5 – 3 – 9
RACE 10
3 – HONOR’S PARADE (7/2) – 4 yo filly takes a big class drop and has a really nice turn of foot which is what you want in these turf routes. A winner at this level, she’s another I would like to see in the paddock off the recent trainer changes and poor last effort before wagering.
1 – SPEEDING STARLET (3/1) – Just missed last time against cheaper. Always seems to be trying and does have a little turn of foot at times. In a wide open race, I would not take a low price.
7 – MORE TO ADORE (8/1) – If she is able to ration out her speed, she’ll be tough to run down!
6 – EXTRA SALSA (5/1) – A definite late player but she’s up in class for this. One to consider if she floats closer to 10/1.
3 – 1 – 7 – 6