Tampa Bay Downs Racing Analysis
Friday, Nov. 30, 2018
Hi everyone. My name is Christian Avard. This is my first foray in handicapping blogging, even though I’ve been a horse racing fan for years. I’m an assistant editor of a small weekly in southern Vermont and an award-winning sports writer. Look forward to handicapping TAM this year.
RACE 1: MD $10,000 (10-8), 5 1/2 FURLONGS
Although #1 LI’L MISS TROUBLE placed poorly last time out (10/03, DEL), the three-year-old filly was just four-and-a-half lengths behind the winner. She bats well after a 31-60 day layoff (183 .19 AVG. ROI $1.47). Her trainer is also hot right now at TAM (6 2 1 1 .33). Morning Odds 7-2.
I’m including #2 I’MAWRECKINGBALL for the sole reason Samy Camacho is in the irons. He’ll have her on the lead and I have this hunch she’ll remain in the lead. Morning Odds 9-2.
Trainer David Fisher claimed #3 MR. MAC in June and he’s sending her on her first face after a long layoff. Fisher is doing well this year as a trainer (2018: 17 4 .24) and he’s even better with first time claimers (7 .29 AVG. ROI $3.23). That’s a good percentage, but MR. MAC is also going off at low odds. Worth considering. Morning Odds 5-2.
DARK HORSES: #5 DIALYZED (Second race after 45-180 layoff (5 .25 AVG ROI $2.72)) Morning Odds 20-1; #6 FLAT ZAPPER Trainer Bernardo Lopez is (4 .25 AVG. ROI $2.25), filly has no where to go but up. Morning Odds 5-1.
RACE 2: CLM$5000N1Y, MILE AND 40 YARDS
Don’t see much value in this race. I’d pass. But if you still want to play this race …
#2 BOLD RESPONSE did well at PID last time out, but faded in the stretch. The gelding’s coming off a long layoff and will shoot for the lead again. The rest may help him. Morning Odds 2-1.
#5 THORNTON is coming off a layoff and has a new trainer Victor Carrasco. Carrasco does well with first-time claimers (11 .27 AVG. ROI $1.04). Morning Odds 4-1
#7. SPRING UP also has a new trainer who does well with first-time claimers. Trainer Jose Delgado is having a fine year (2018: 54 12 .22) and is batting 15 .27 AVG. ROI $1.80 with first-time claimers. Morning odds 5-2.
RACE 3: CLM $10,000, MILE AND ONE-SIXTEENTH
Again, I don’t see any value here. But if you still want to bet …
Samy Camacho will be aboard #1 ATTA KID and the colt ran a bullet back on Nov. 23. Worth considering. Morning Odds 9-2
#2. KD’s BIRD is well placed in this group. Has won three races at Tampa and also won at the 1 1/16 distance in April. Morning Odds 3-1.
#3 BEST OFFER is also placed well here. Trainer John Rigatteri bats a .22 winning percentage with horses that haven’t ran between 31-60 days. This gelding also ran a sharp race last time out at DEL. Morning line odds 5-2.
DARK HORSE: #5 POLAR CITY. Has the Beyers to win this race handily. Fired a 71 Beyer two-back at a mile and 70 yards. Jockey Pablo Morales is hot and the horse is owned and trained by Carassco. Worth a look. Morning Odds 2-1.
RACE 4: CLM $16,000, MILE AND A SIXTEENTH (ON THE TURF)
Definitely want to play this one. Ten horses in this race. More value among the field.
#2 OUSBY is intriguing. Mostly because trainer Jose Delgado is wheeling him back six days after his last race. Delgado has confidence in him. Worth a look. Morning Odds 5-2.
#5 TOTAL JOINT did well last time out against lesser foes. His Beyers look good too. Trainer John Tebutt has shown some success first race after a claim as well (6 .33 AVG. ROI $1.45). This the gelding’s first race with a new trainer. Jock change as well. Villa-Gomez gets the call. Can he get the job done though? Morning Odds 6-1.
#9 BLACK PRONG Gelding won last time out against lesser company. Two races back, he won against similar company again at Gulfstream. Beyers look nice. Trainer does well with horses coming off 31-60 days rest (11 .36 AVG. ROI $3.87) Camacho back in the irons too. I like this one. Morning Odds 6-1.
DARK HORSE: #8 GAME LAD. Trainer is hot right now with first time starters at TAM. Four out of his six horses either won or were ITM) Morning Odds 7-2.
RACE 5: FILLIES, CLM $5,000N1Y
#2 YOOOU DEN did well last time out against similar company. Well suited for this race again. Trainer Anthony Rini does well with his horses coming off a 31-60 day layoff (85 .24 AVG. ROI $1.92). Morning Odds 5-2.
#4 BOBBY’S BDAY GIRL is the morning line favorite but this mare hasn’t fared well at TAM. Two races at this course, both were duds and her Beyers were in the 20s. Same jockey who rode her in March rides again. Seems like a losing combination. Morning Odds 9-5.
#6 BELLA PROUD offers some value. Mare is switching from route to sprint and is coming off a 61-180 day layoff. Also posted a 67 Beyer at this distance. Never raced at TAM. Worth a thought. Morning Odds 6-1.
RACE 6: MD SP WEIGHT $22,000
#3 Trainer Eoin Harty has been working #3 EXECUTIVE BONUS hard for this race. Six works with two bullets back in October. Harty does well with horses coming off a 61-180 day layoff. Gelding is also running first time on Lasix too. Morning Odds 9-2.
#4 CALL ME BILL is trained by Graham Motion, the big fish in the small pond. You gonna bet against one of the best? Pablo Morales is in the irons too. A winning combination. Morning Odds 4-1.
#8 GLOBAL NATION MTH shipper has run against tougher competition up north. This is a class drop for the gelding and he is switching from sprint to route race. Looks strong here. Morning Odds 5-2.
RACE 7: OC $32,000/N2X
#2 MR. LIGHTNING BOY has finished ITM in every race since April. Gelding also likes running at TAM, 12 for 16 ITM at this course. Worth a look. Morning Odds 4-1.
#3. DOODLE HOPPER will be overlooked among the other quality horses in the field. I say give this gelding a shot. Won four times at TAM and finished 10 for 16 ITM. Trainer bats .23 with horses winning back-to-back races. Pablo Morales also gets the call. GREAT VALUE PLAY. Morning Odds 8-1.
#5 FIRE MISSION is the strongest horse in the field. Won at BEL two back at today’s distance and posted an 89 Beyer. Gelding will get a lot of play though. Morning Odds 9-5.
RACE 8: FILLIES, CLM $16,000
Trainer Kathleen DeMasi is trying to shake things up with her five-year-old mare #2 MY GOOD VENEZUELA. She’s pulling out all the karma moves for the win: A long layoff, stretching out from sprint to route, bullet workouts and more. One interesting stat: DeMasi is batting .21 with horses running two sprints and then switch to a route. MY GOOD VENEZUELA is coming off from two straight sprints to a route. VALUE PLAY! Morning Odds 10-1.
#5 FELT IN THE POCKET is moving down in class. Her Beyers have been consistently high, she loves racing at TAM and she has also won at this distance. Kicker is she’s be the morning line favorite. That’s the downside. Morning Odds 7-5.
#10 STRAIGHT UP SMARTY has some great early speed. Jockey Dave Centeno will also be gunning her to the lead from the outside post. This mare has also won three times at this distance with a top Beyer of 82. Strong horse, low odds. Morning Line Odds 3-1.
RACE 9 CLM $8,000N3L
Some of the biggest bombs that win come from the last races of the day. Always worth sticking around for.
I’m just going to pick one horse for the win #2 GUNSHIP. Even though the colt finished sixth in his last race, he was only three-and-a-half lengths from the winning horse Siorno. Gunship has a new trainer, switching from a sprint to route race and runs well in sprints. He also has late speed and I can’t think of a better horse to root for at the end of the day: A closer for the win. Morning Odds 10-1.
Good luck!