So happy to be back. High school sports got in the way these last few weeks. The school I cover won three state championships this winter. Now I’m back to cover TAM. So here we go.
RACE 1: CLM $8000N3L, SIX FURLONGS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
I was going to pick the horse Samy Camacho is riding #3. SHAFIRO but I’m going with #1. WANNA SALSA. Partly because the morning line is 5-1, but also because trainer Mario Lorito does well with horses come off long layoffs. He bats .14 percent with horses coming off 180+ day layoffs. SHAFIRO will most likely get a lot of play. Hopefully there’s an overlay for WANNA SALSA on race day.
RACE 2: CLM $16,000N2L, SIX AND A HALF FURLONGS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
This is anyone’s race but I’m going with #5. FOURTH DESIGN. It’s trained by Gerald Bennett and he’s got a lot of karma moves going for him: first race off a claim (.18 percent), route to sprint (.17 percent) and a jockey change to Daniel Centeno (238 46 33 38 .19). Bennett has a high win percentage for Averill Racing horses as well. That’s where this colt is from.
RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAMING $16,000, ONE MILE, TURF, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UP
First race on the sod and a huge field in this race, 10 horses entered. A lot of inexperienced trainers here. The one that stands out is Kathleen O’Connell and she has a filly that could pull it off. #7. MIDNIGHT BUFFET is sired by Kentucky Derby/Preakness winer BIG BROWN, so that counts for something. O’Connell does well with horses coming off a 31-60 day layoff (.22) and there’s a big jock change to Antonio Gallardo who’s racking up the wins this season (.23 at TAM). Filly is also going off at 9-2. Worth a look.
RACE 4: MAIDEN $10,000, ONE MILE AND FORTY YARDS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
A lot of bad horses in this field. I’m gonna go with #4. FALCONER. Jockey Samy Camacho is riding this gelding and Camacho has won for trainer Bernardo Lopez before. Add in the statistic that Lopez is batting .20 percent with horses in their second race after long layoffs .20 percent with $1.60 AVG. ROI. Camacho is due for his first win as well. I’m giving this crew the nod.
RACE 5: OPTIONAL CLAIMING $75,000/N1X, ONE MILE, TURF, THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLIES
This one is a no brainer. #9. AUNT HATTIE (IRE) is trained by Hall of Fame trainer, the only and only, Bill Mott. Camacho is also riding this filly as well. You gonna bet against the best? Good luck. This is my safe bet of the day.
RACE 6: CLAIMING $8,000N3L, ONE MILE AND 40 YARDS, DIRT, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UP
I’m gonna go with #5. VICTORY SPELL. Filly is two-for-four at this distance and she has won at TAM. Placed in the money two of her last four races as well. Ricardo Feliciano is the experienced jock in this race too.
RACE 7: CLAIMING $16,000, ONE MILE, TURF, FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UP
I’m going with #4. TOTAL TAP. Samy Camacho is riding this gelding. More importantly, TOTAL TAP already won at this distance at TAM. Camacho usually gets two-to-three winners per card. He’ll get another one here.
RACE 8: MAIDEN $16,000, SEVEN FURLONGS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLDS
Man, all of these horses are bad. In races like these anyone can win. The best of this batch, IMO, is #1. CAPTAIN CARNEGIE. Trainer Anthony Granitz is having a good meet, batting .21 percent. Gelding is racing first time on Lasix and trying blinkers for the first time out. Granitz is making a lot of karma moves too. Turf to-dirt (four-for-13, .31 winning percentage and 77% ITM), four-for-12 on the turnbacks .33 winning percentage and 50% ITM). Here’s the good part. CAPTAIN CARNEGIE is going off at 15-1. Granitz is four-for-23, with a .17 winning percentage and 39% ITM. Empty the bankrolls on this race and this gelding I might just do that.
As always, I skip the final race. Good luck and don’t bet on every race. Just have fun!