Back to handicapping. Sometimes work gets in the way. Now I’m back.
I picked four winners last time out and the week before that, I had another four-win day. Let’s hope I can go for three weeks in a row.
RACE ONE: CLAIMING $5,000N1Y, FIVE-AND-A-HALF FURLONGS, DIRT, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UP.
I’m gonna go with #7. LUNA AZTECA. The mare almost won her last two races, both of them were six furlong contests. In both races she faded at the end. This race is five-and-a-half furlongs, a little bit of a shorter distance, and she should be able to get home first. Trainer Jose Delgado is having a hot meet too (28 7 6 3 .25). As always, go with the hot trainer. LUZA AZTECA will take it (I hope).
RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, SEVEN FURLONGS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLDS.
This was a tough one. I like #4. JACK B WINKLE, but I’m going with #3. HE IZ GONE. Trainer Joan Scott is making all kinds of karma moves to win this race, angles she’s been successful at: First race after claim (.33), first time blinkers (.27), blinkers on (.27), and maiden claiming races (.31). Hot jockey Antonio Gallardo also gets the mount. That’s a pretty good winning combination.
RACE 3: CLAIMING $8,000N3L, ONE MILE AND FORTY YARDS, DIRT, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UP
The only filly with any consistency is #5. U TURN THE PAGE. So I’m going with her. Owner/trainer Carlos Silva is having a pretty good meet. The filly has already won at this distance at TAM and jockey Raul Mena is also having a pretty good meet (104 13 12 10 .12).
RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, ONE MILE, TURF, THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLIES
The only one that stands out here is #9 CANADIAN MAGIC. Trainer Bernardo Lopez is 23 4 0 2 .17 for this meet. He’s also a turf specialist trainer (13 .24 AVG. ROI $2.54). The filly is making a karma move (dirt to turf) and she has the most experienced jockey in the field Daniel Centeno (167 27 20 30 .17). Easy enough.
RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, SEVEN FURLONGS, DIRT, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UP
Zero-for-51 mare #5. BOURBON TRACE is back. Why she is still running baffles me. Can somebody answer that? As much as I want to see her win, she really has no chance. Again, there’s one filly that stands out among the rest #7. ROSETTA’S GIFT. She’ll have the best jock of them all in this race Pablo Morales and her trainer is Kathleen O’Connell. The Morales-O’Connell angle is two-for-eight with a .25 winning percentage and a .75 ITM percentage. O’Connell is batting .30 with horses coming off a 180+ layoff and .21 percent in maiden claiming races. I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t win.
RACE 6: CLAIMING $16,000N3L, ONE MILE, TURF, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UP
There are quite a few horses that could pull this off. I won’t be surprised if one of them going off at 4-1 odds or higher will win. I like Kentucky shipper #1. IGOTTAWHITEFACE. Trainer Michael Tomlinson is someone I’m not familiar with. His stats aren’t all that impressive but he is batting .26 with horses coming off a win last time out. I’m shying away from this filly because this is her first time on turf and Tomlinson is batting a donut going from dirt-to-turf.
Again, I’m going with the chalk #9. MINESHAFT MADNESS. It’s Samy Camacho’s first mount of the day and he’ll be itching to win. The filly’s trainer is Gerald Bennett (121 34 19 17 .28) and he has a .33 percent winning percentage with horses making their second start after a claim, according to Progressive Handicapping (my favorite handicapping guide). The Bennett-Camacho angle over the last two meets is 38 15 .39 winning percentage and .74 ITM. The numbers say it all.
RACE 7: CLAIMING $20,000, FIVE-AND-A-HALF FURLONGS, DIRT, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UP
I won’t be surprised if #1. TRAPPE ME LATER wins. Samy Camacho is riding her and trainer Robert Smith is batting .33 percent with horses than won last time out. But one of these races that chalk has to lose. I’ll go with this one. My pick is #2. ROYAL JEWELRY. Throw out her last race. The mare hopped at the start and finished seventh. However, she was only three-and-a-quarter lengths from the winner. She’s also trained by Gerald Bennett. He’s 7-for-28 with a .25 winning percentage and .61 percent ITM. The trainer-jockey angle is 10-for-27, .31 winning percentage and .63 percent ITM. It also appears this mare is moving down in class and Bennett is also 12-for-54 with a .22 winning percentage and .46 ITM. I’m going for the money in this race. ROYAL JEWELRY could deliver.
RACE 8: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $22,000, ONE MILE, TURF, FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
I’m gonna bet against the Samy Camacho horse #6. WHISKEY MOMENT. I’ll probably regret it later, but that’s beside the point. I’m going for value here. #2. EXECUTIVE BONUS is who I’m going with. Gelding lost by a neck two back on the turf at this distance and recorded a 72 Beyer. He was pulled up early in his last race and I think he will rebound. Juan Castanon gets the mount and the trainer-jockey angle is top notch, 3-for-11 with a .27 winning percentage and .45 percent ITM. Pretty nice. My value play of the day.
RACE 9: CLAIMING, $8,000N2L, SIX FURLONGS, DIRT, FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
I’m going with #11. I AM TOO WILD. The gelding won two back at this distance. Antonio Gallardo gets the mount and the trainer-owner angle is not bad (Michele Boyce-Savoy Stable, 2-for-15, .13 winning percentage and .40 percent ITM).
As always, I skip the last race. Good luck. Glad to be back handicapping. 🙂