Back again. Who had OUR PROMISE in the fourth race last Friday at TAM? This guy! The filly trained by Mark Hamm and ridden by Daniel Centeno came in at 10-1. Always nice when your value plays come in. Now, onto Friday’s card.
RACE 1: Alw 22500N1X, 1 1/16 mile (turf), fillies and mares 3 and up
They put the best race of the day right at the beginning. Not sure why.
#1 WELL BLESSED looks well placed here. She’s an invader from the Mid-Atlantic circuit and never raced at TAM. Placed ITM in her last three races and fared well against tougher competition. This is a class drop for her and a surface switch. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is 52 .25 AVG. ROI $1.70 in dirt to turf races. His horses also fair well in turf routes as well averaging a .22 winning percentage. Oh, and Daniel Centeno is in the irons. Respect. MORNING ODDS 7-2.
#4. INITIATE is trained by Hall of Fame Trainer Shug McGaughey. I rest my case. Filly ran on the TAM turf only once and won. She also fired a bullet for this race on Dec. 1. Will be heavily bet on to win this one. MORNING ODDS 5-2.
#5 MIKO is a four-year-old filly making her first appearance at TAM. She’s trained by one of the best, Linda Rice. Miko has faced tougher on the NYRA circuit and placed ITM in her last two races. Rice bats 167 .20 AVG. ROI $1.75 on horses coming off a 61-180 layoff. MORNING ODDS 5-1
MY PICKS: 4-5-1
RACE 2: CLM $5000N1Y, five-and-a-half furlongs (dirt), 3 and up
#6 JERSEY STREET is very intriguing. Raced at TAM for the first time and finished second, just two lengths behind the winner. Trainer Victor Barboza is wheeling him back nine days later. He must know something about the gelding we don’t. Why else wheel him back so soon? Barboza bats .25 AVG. ROI $1.81 in dirt races, .20 in sprints and .21 in claiming races. Barboza has the best stats among all the trainers. MORNING ODDS 5-2
#5 KITCHEN POLICE fired two bullet workouts for this race. Trainer James Tsirigotis bats a solid .18 AVG. ROI $2.32 with horses coming off a 61-180 day layoff, which this gelding is. MORNING ODDS 3-1
#7. MONKEY MONKEY likes this distance (three wins, 5-for-9 ITM) and likes TAM (two wins, 5-for-9 ITM). Trainer Tom Monte is having a good meet so far too (6 2 0 1 .33) MORNING ODDS 4-1
MY PICKS: 7-6-5
RACE 3: CLM $16,000, 1 1/16th of a mile (turf), fillies and mares 3 and up
This is a large field and I don’t have a clear idea who stands out. Although there is a lot of front end speed which makes should set up well for a closer.
#1 SUGAR CANE GIRL is trained by Keith Nations, a big fish in the small pond. He bats 49 .22 AVG. ROI $1.68 on the second race after a 45-180-day layoff. In the last three meets, he’s won turf routes at an amazing .28 clip (72 races, 20 wins, 28% winning pct. and 54% ITM. Jockey Feargal Lynch is off to a great start as well. He’ll be aboard this one. MORNING ODDS 6-1
#6 CROWN OF JOY is also trained by a big fish in the small pond, Kathleen O’Connell (12 3 3 0 .25). Antonio Gallardo, last year’s top TAM jockey, is aboard as well. He’s also having a great start to the meet (37 6 8 7 .16). The jockey-trainer combo is the one stat you should look at. In the last three meets, they won 27 out of 83 races. That’s a .33 winning percentage and .64 ITM. Crown of Joy is also a closer who had a sharp race last time out (finishing three-and-a-half lengths from the winner). Respect. MORNING ODDS 6-1
If you’re looking for a horse with a wire-to-wire running style, check out #5 FASTER N BLAZES. The filly likes running at TAM (three out of 4 races ITM, including one win) and she likes running at this distance (won one out of five races and finished ITM in three out of five). Faster N Blazes also has solid Beyers at this track and at this distance (high-to-mid 60s). MORNING ODDS 9-2
MY PICKS: 6-1-5
RACE 4: CLM $5,000N2Y, 1 1/16 MILES (dirt), fillies and mares 3 and up
#2 DOROTHYFROMDUBLIN was claimed by trainer Dennis Ward last time out. He’s 23 .22 AVG. ROI $1.12 with first time claimers. The filly has places ITM in her last three races and was four-and-three-quarters behind the leader four-back while placing sixth. MORNING ODDS 2-1
#3 CALIFORNIA COTTON is not getting any respect. The filly has a hot trainer in Gerald Bennett (21 8 4 2 .38), a hot jockey with Samy Camacho (46 13 10 5 .28) and a solid work on Dec. 11. Bennett has won three races for the connections Five Aces Racing three times. Lastly, California Cotton is 6-for-9 at TAM with two wins and four places, and 4-for-6 at today’s distance (one win, one place and two shows). MORNING ODDS 6-1. NICE VALUE!
I want to back #4 DESCARDO but trainer Benny Feliciano is 0-for-7 for the last three years with dirt routes. He’s won three races for the mare’s connections, M C R Stables, but I’m going to shy away from her this time out. MORNING ODDS 3-1
#7 ALL GOOD TIMES likes the 1 1/16 distance (8 2 0 3 $30,360, high Beyer 66). John Rigatteri bats a high .24 in second races off a 45-180-day layoff. Filly is well-placed here. Throw out her last race Nov. 30. She’ll bounce back. Has nice connections to boot, John Rigattieri and Stephen Derany 8 2 .25 and .63 ITM) MORNING ODDS 7-2
MY PICKS: 3-2-7
RACE 5: MD CLM $10,000, SEVEN FURLONGS (dirt), 3 and up
I’m passing this one. The ones that have any chance at winning are the chalk favorites: #2 I’M A CATMAN (7-2), #4 INFAMY (5-2) and #7 PEAS AND CARROTS (8-5).
Sadly, this is all I can cover this week. I’m still recovering from my birthday celebration last night and I gonna start working on next week’s edition of the Vermont Standard. I’m an editor.
Good luck everyone. You’re on your own.