Just one more Friday and then Tampa Bay Downs goes dark for the 2018-2019 season. It’s been fun. Now let’s get to today’s races.
RACE 1: CLM 8000N2L, FIVE-AND-A-HALF FURLONGS, DIRT, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UP
I’m going with #3. LEADING YOU ON. Mare’s Beyers are the most consistent of this bunch. I know #4. PRIMA GOLD is trained by Gerald Bennett and all that, but that filly is known to run some hideously bad races. Look at the one two back, 8000N3L: Beyer 18, finished dead last, vied for lead and then faded. Not your typical Bennett horse. LEADING YOU ON should take this one, not PRIMA GOLD.
RACE 2: Md 16000, FIVE-AND-A-HALF FURLONGS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLDS
Now this Gerald Bennett filly is worth backing. #6 SMOKIN PRINCESS faced tougher foes in her first race and had a legitimate excuse for finishing out of the money. She stumbled at the start and never recovered. She was also the betting favorite, so that tells you the public likes her. SMOKIN PRINCESS ran a bullet workout on April 16 and the best jockey of them all, Samy Camacho, will get the ride. I think it’s a safe bet.
RACE 3: ALW 16000, ONE MILE, TURF, FILLES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UP
Jockey Samy Camacho and Trainer Gerald Bennett go for their second win of the day with #8. SILLY FACTOR. Mare has the most consistent Beyers and the highest Beyers in the field. Just ran a bullet workout on April 19 and Bennett is pulling out all the karma moves for this race: Switching from dirt to turf (12% clip), sprint to route (16% clip), won last start (26% clip), etc. SILLY FACTOR has won at this distance before and is 2-for-2 ITM at TAM. Another safe bet.
RACE 4: Md 16000, ONE MILE, TURF, FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
A lot of sad horses here. Look at them all and you’ll see they all finished well out of the money in their last races. Not a good sign. The only one who stands out is #9. GENERAL because she’s never ran before, LOL. It’s her first time out. Trainer David Fisher has had some success with FTSers (20% clip). Gelding is running on first-time-Lasix too. Guess who’s riding too? Camacho. I’ll go with this one.
RACE 5: CLM 8000N2L, ONE MILE AND FORTY YARDS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
On paper, #1. PREQUALIFIED should win this race. Consistently high Beyers and six straight sharp races. Just seems to keep missing the winner’s circle. Gelding is going off at 2-1, but this time I’m going for the money. I’ll go out on a limb and bet on #6. DIAMOND LUCKY. The trainer-jock combo of Maria Bowersock and Ron Allen is pretty solid. In 2018, they won eight races, 14% winning clip and 35% ITM. This gelding is going off at 10-1 and Bowersock has four wins at an 18% clip and a 41% ITM. That’s got me interested.
RACE 6: OC 75k/N1X, ONE MILE, TURF, THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLIES
Tough race to handicap. I’m gonna play it safe and go with #1. VENTIAN PRINCESS. Filly ran the highest Beyer at this distance (69). Trainer Keith Nations is doing the dirt-to-turf karma move (17%) and the big statistic worth considering is the owner-trainer combo. Vince Campanella and Nations Racing S have a winning percentage of 41% over the last two meets.
RACE 7: Md 16000, ONE MILE, TURF, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UP
#10. MY LITTLE STORMY is the one that stands out among the others, class-wise and Beyers-wise and the filly ran three straight sharp races. The other horses, for the most part, ran out of the money last out. Another safe bet.
RACE 8: Clm 8000N2L, ONE MILE AND 40 YARDS, DIRT, FILLES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UP.
#9. FIESTA MOON looks like the best horse out of a weak field. Jockey Pablo Morales is due for a win today. This should be the one. Two straight sharp finishes, Beyers look like the best in the field and she’s been the betting favorite twice in her last three races. I like her chances.
I skip the last race. Good luck. One more week to go!