TAMPA BAY DOWNS – Saturday, March 9, 2019
VALUE CAPPING by @LightningJay_
(All selections are made for FAST & FIRM. Following any scratches, you’ll need to adjust your Fair Value odds a bit lower.)
Value Capping in a nutshell, is the art of selecting horses that you like, that the public shouldn’t, preferably running against flawed favorites.
RACE 1
Looks to be very formful and therefore offers little in the way of Value. 6 – I Am Iron Man (5/2) makes his debut off a nicely spaced pattern of solid works, including the all important 5 furlong efforts. Camacho & Arriagada are winning at 30%. 4 – Discreet Ransom (3/1) drops from Maiden Specials where he flashed speed into $16k claimers. Blinkers are added. The Fair value price on both runners is 5/1. Should either of the 2 drift to that price, they are worth a win wager.
6 – 4
RACE 2
1 – Journeyman (3/1) looks to move forward after that solid opening effort based on the improved work tab for Eoin Harty & Godolphin. Fair Value price is 10/1. 5 – Back to Back (7/2) is another who is eligible to move forward in his 2nd start for Delacour who is 38% with these at 4/1 or lower. Fair Value price is 15/1. The only real Value horse is the 9 – Peppermint Crunch (12/1). I’m willing to draw a line through that ‘eased’ effort as the horse has come back with a series of solid works. Fair Value price is 20/1.
1 – 5 – 9
RACE 3
There are 3 runners in here that interest me. 2 – Stamp (6/1) by War Front had 2 decent efforts at Ellis Park last summer against some solid competition. The works leading up to this have been good and Irad Ortiz gets the mount. Fair Value price is 5/1. 11 – Sophie Antoinette (5/1) has also been competitive against better. Brisset has deceptively good numbers when you read between the lines. Hoping the public looks at those finishes of 6th, 9th & 7th along with today’s outside post and we might get double digits on her. Fair Value price is 15/1. 7 – Lady Marjorie (20/1) can move forward 2nd time going long on the turf for Dale Bennett who is 22% first after a trainer change. Fair Value price is 30/1. The 1 & the 8 must be included when playing multi race wagers. I would need to get 10/1 on the 1 and or 25/1 on the 8 to consider them as win bets. Should more than 2 horses meet the Fair Value odds, I will PASS on the race.
2 – 11 – 7 – 1 – 8
RACE 4
There are 5 main contenders as I see the race, with no standouts. If one or 2 of these reach their Fair Value price, consider a win bet & exacta key box with the field. I’ve graded the contenders A-C for those of you that prefer to use a tool such as DRF Ticketmaker on your multi-race wagers.
2 – Chicory Blue (7/2) A – Fair Value at 10/1
10 – Lord Barna (9/2) A – 10/1
3 – Beltway (4/1) A – 10/1
1 – Combat Controller (9/2) B – 15/1
7 – The Best Candy (6/1) B – 15/1
RACE 5
As is the case in many turf races, this one’s filled with options. There are 6 horses I’m interested in and will look for 1 or 2 that offer Value. If there aren’t any, or if there are more than 2, again, I will PASS the race.
8 – Delcapem (9/2) A – Fair Value at 10/1
6 – Let’s Go Now (4/1) A – 10/1
11 – Zip Drive (FR) (8/1) B – 15/1
2 – Tiple (IRE) (7/2) B – 10/1
9 – Repatriated Gem (5/1) C – 20/1
3 – I’ll Take That (8/1) C – 20/1
RACE 6
Many of these are cutting back in distance so my focus is on early pace numbers and first-time starters. I will consider win and exacta key boxes with the field if one or 2 meet my Fair Value odds.
6 – Proposition (5/1) A – Fair Value at 15/1
1 – She’ll Do (5/2) A – 5/1
9 – Final Cut (4/1) B – 20/1
4 – Regal Chant (12/1) B – 12/1
11 – Private Message (12/1) C – 25/1
10 – Lemon Gal (15/1) C – 30/1
RACE 7
The Columbia Stakes presents some great opportunities for Value. Remember, we’re not just trying to pick winners, we’re looking for horses that we like, that the public shouldn’t, that preferably are running against flawed favorites. You can’t say there are any flaws in the favorites here, so that broadens my field of contenders from which I will look for my price. If one or 2 are at or above Fair Value, I will consider a win bet and key boxing them in exactas with the field. If none meet the criteria or there are more than 2 that do, I will pass the race. That said, if you are playing the All-Stakes Pick 5, you should include the 2 and 3 (as A choices) while going as deep as you can from my list.
4 – Go Away (10/1) A – Fair Value at 10/1
8 – Digital Age (IRE) (8/1) A – 20/1
9 – Royal Urn (6/1) B – 15/1
10 – Proliferate (7/2) B – 20/1
1 – Crosstown Shootout (30/1) B – 15/1
5 – Global Access (15/1) C – 25/1
11 – Forever Mo (10/1) C – 20/1
RACE 8
A compact field of 6 go in The Challenger Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Early speed should be able to control the pace and the figures point to the 3 – Killybegs Captain (9/2). But I’m really interested in the 5 – Bourbon Resolution (8/1) making his 2nd start after a layoff where he just ran his fastest number. The horse has obviously improved and has since worked a pair of bullets.
5 – Bourbon Resolution (8/1) – Fair Value at 8/1
3 – Killybegs Captain (9/2) – 5/1
2 – Reride (7/2) – 15/1
1 – Flameaway (3/2) – 15/1
RACE 9
The Hillsborough Stakes will be contested at 1 1/8 miles over the Tampa turf. It doesn’t appear that we’ll find the type of value we’re looking for in this contest, but the 10 & the 3 just might offer us the price we’re looking for.
8 – Onthemoonagain (FR) (7/2) A – Fair Value at 8/1
7 – Rymska (FR) (5/2) A – 6/1
2 – Hawksmoor (IRE) (3/1) B – 8/1
10 – Goodyearforroses (IRE) (8/1) C – 25/1
3 – Viva Vegas (8/1) C – 15/1
RACE 10
The Gr3 Florida Oaks appears to be a wide-open event. Once again there are no visible flaws in the favored horses, so we will look for our price among an expanded group of 7. For those of you ambitious enough to play multi-race sequences, I’ve again ranked the contenders A-C.
10 – Stellar Agent (4/1) A – Fair Value at 10/1
1 – La Feve (FR) (5/1) A – 10/1
7 – Blowout (GB) (10/1) A – 20/1
2 – Mega Fortune (8/1) B – 20/1
3 – Winter Sunset (6/1) B – 15/1
4 – Elsa (6/1) B – 15/1
9 – Winning Envelope (8/1) C – 35/1
RACE 11
The Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby has drawn a competitive field of 11. There are 7 contenders from which I will play 1 or 2 to win and key box with the field provided we get the minimum of our Fair Value odds. If there are 3 or more at our price, I will PASS on the race. I’m intrigued with the Mott horse 10 – Tacitus (12/1). Paired up a couple of very strong numbers and now adds Lasix. Impeccably bred, this son of Tapit out of Close Hatches has both speed and stamina in his pedigree and this just might be his coming out party.
10 – Tacitus (12/1) A – Fair Value at 25/1
7 – Win Win Win (5/2) A – 10/1
4 – Dream Maker (4/1) A – 20/1
6 – Outshine (8/1) B – 15/1
5 – Well Defined (7/2) B – 20/1
11 – Zenden (8/1) C – 15/1
1 – Admire (12/1) C – 50/1
RACE 12
The finale to a tremendous card looks a bit chalky. I think you can get by in your multi-race wagers by using the 1 & 5. It’s doubtful we’ll get our price on either of them to consider a win bet, so I’ve included a couple more contenders which may offer the right value.
1 – Gold Sting (3/1) – Fair Value at 7/1
5 – Trumpi (5/2) – 13/1
6 – Please Humor Me (30/1) – 25/1
8 – Honest to Goodness (8/1) – 40/1
10 – Simmardstrike (9/2) – 30/1
Best of Luck!
@LightningJay_