Race 8: The Saratoga Derby, 3yo, 1 Mile 3/16 Turf:
This is by far, the deepest group of three year olds competing on the grass so far this year. Decorated Invader will be the favorite, but this will be his biggest challenge yet.
1. Bama Breeze: He’s been facing stakes foes in all three starts as a three year old. He found some traffic problems while coming from last in the Transylvania in his most recent try. He’s been very game and he gets Manny Franco aboard, who has been riding very smartly on the turf lately. I wouldn’t be surprised to him sitting a little closer to the pace today from his rail draw. He has a chance at a price at the bottom of the exotics.
2. Decorated Invader: He’s aced every test so far this year, winning each start by open lengths. He’s versatile and draws well for the way the course at Saratoga has been playing. I think he’s capable of better races and Rosario has created perfect trips for him. The only knock, and it’s very minor is that in 2 of his last 3 three races, he’s hit the gate at the break and broke a little bit sideways. It didn’t really affect him last time, but he lost position in the Gulfstream race. That may have worked to his favor as the pace was hot and he mowed them down late. Horses coming wide from off the pace have been struggling at the Spa this week. He’s the most likely winner, but he’s not a lock.
3. No Word: He won last out with, beating optional claiming/NW1X Allowance foes at Belmont. He’s run well, but hasn’t taken a big step forward to suggest he’ll be a big factor with these stakes proven foes.
4. Domestic Spending: He took a big step forward while closing well to be third in the Hall of Fame Stakes last out. There’s no reason to think he can’t improve more off his last race, which is what he’ll have to do to turn the tables on Decorated Invader today. Many of the Chad Brown horses haven’t had the same flash as they have had at previous meets.
5. Gufo: He’s ripped off four straight wins, including two stakes races, most recently winning the Grade 3 Kent Stakes at Delaware. He has a similar running style as Domestic Spending, so I’d imagine they’d be the two back markers early on. There will likely be some pace to close into, but I’m not sure that’s the ideal running style to win today.
6. Colonel Liam: This guy put up a monster Beyer figure beating older horses here last month. The field he beat wasn’t spectacular and the top three horses posted career high figures by a decent amount that race, so I’m not ready to declare this one a star yet. I assume he’ll be overbet off that number, coupled with the fact that leading trainer, Todd Pletcher sends him out. I’ll play against him today.
7. Field Pass: He’s a battle tested, multiple stakes winner for the red hot Mike Maker barn. His only loss in his last five starts came by the hands of future graded stakes winner, Smooth Like Strait, and that was after he blew the break. He’s versatile and should work out a decent trip. I think he’ll go off below 6-1, but anywhere near that price, I think he’s worth a long look.
8. I’m Smokin’: There’s no secret as to what he’s going to do, especially breaking from the outside. The question is whether or not he’ll be able to moderate his tempo on the front end. He ran off a bit last out in the Hall Of Fame, but he had something left in the stretch, and was pretty game. If no one pushes him, he could be dangerous at a price for the bottom of the exotics.
My Picks: 7-2-8
Race 9: The Grade 1 Alabama, 3yo Fillies, 1 Mile and 1/4.
One of the signature races for three year old fillies drew a strong field of seven, trying to beat Swiss Skydiver, whose three race win streak was snapped by Art Collector in the Blue Grass last out.
1. Envoutante: She has improved speed figures in her four career dirt races. She was a little too close to the pace in the Ashland last out and weakened late. She should improve at longer distances, like many of these. I’d like to see her lay back early in here as there could be a reasonable pace for the distance. She’s not impossible in here.
2. Spice Is Nice: She’s a beautifully bred, million dollar purchase, who embarrassed her foes when she broke her maiden in January at Gulfstream. She was a decent second in the Davona Dale before encountering some trouble in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She returned and won a first level allowance at Belmont with ease, earning a strong figure. When things go her way, she’s dazzling, but when she’s found adversity, she hasn’t responded. I have mixed feelings about her taking on a deep field.
3. Crystal Ball: She took the initiative and set the pace in the CCA Oaks, surrendering at the very end to Paris Lights. She finds a deeper field today and a field with some potential pace pressure to her inside and outside. Her game seems to be on the front end and I think there’s better horses in here that have that style.
4. Bonny South: She wasn’t good enough in The Ashland, but she was coming off a 3 and 1/2 month break. She is an improving filly that should be able to get the distance and will likely get a favorable trip and pace set up. I think she’s live at a price in this race.
5. Swiss Skydiver: She’s had a tremendous run that started with impressive wins in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, Fantasy, and the Santa Anita Oaks. Her second place finish to Art Collector looks even better as he went on the score impressively in the Ellis Park Derby. Her best race was in the Fantasy where she tracked the speed and pounced and I see her working out a similar trip today. Her pedigree doesn’t suggest she’d excel at 10 Furlongs, but I’ve seen no evidence that would suggest she’s not going to get that last 1/8 of a mile.
6. Harvey’s Little Goil: She was the darling of the winter at Aqueduct, trying to take a similar path to the Kentucky Oaks as Princess Of Sylmar. When the pandemic hit, she rerouted to Arkansas and came up empty in the Fantasy. She returned to run a monster race at CD on the grass in the Regret. She comes back to the dirt and has a live look at a price here.
7. Fire Coral: She was beaten 8 lengths in the Indiana Oaks against much softer. She steps up here and would be a massive surprise if she beat these.
My Picks: 5-4-6