Belmont 6/27/2020 – Race 7- The Vagrancy G3
This is the first of four straight graded stakes at Belmont. On paper, none of the four races jump out as great betting races, but each race features talented horses that have a shot to be near or at the top of their respective divisions at the end of the year. In this race, there’s an interesting mix of seven fillies and mares are traveling 6 and ½ Furlongs.
1.) Royal Charlotte: She’s been a consistent filly for Chad Brown, with the only ugly mark on her resume being the Test last year. She ran well in the mud in the Harmony Lodge last time out in her seasonal debut. She should be able to sit just off the first flight and make her move on the turn. I think she can move forward off her last to be a factor at this level.
2.) Mother Mother: Bob Baffert has kept this four year old daughter of Pioneerofthenile on the East Coast, as the more lucrative targets in this division are definitely east of the Mississippi. She ran three strong races at Santa Anita this winter that signaled that she could be a force in this division. Her last two races however, were not her best. In both starts, she was a bit lethargic out of the gate and never seemed like she was involved in the race. She’s a tricky read for me, as she might offer some value here, and you could argue that the bobble shortly after the break at Santa Anita and the mud at Belmont hindered her in her last two tries. I’m more inclined to think that she’s just off form right now though, as I felt like I was watching a different horse. If her odds climb around 8-1 or better, I’d give her a look, but otherwise, I’m trying to beat her.
3.) Chalon: She makes her first start as a six year old and she has been very consistent throughout her career. She has run well fresh in the past, but those races were against softer stakes company. She often gets close in graded company, but surprisingly, has never won a graded stakes race. I’ll use her in the exotics, but probably leave her off the multi-race bets.
4.) Jakarta: I thought she was interesting in the Intercontinental on grass last out, but, perhaps due to the yielding turf, she didn’t utilize her best weapon, which is her early speed. She comes back to the dirt and will have to go pretty fast to clear these early on. I don’t think she’ll be able to hang with these ladies in the stretch though.
5.) Come Dancing: She’s the X-factor in this race. Toss her seasonal debut in the Apple Blossom as she has proven that she’s not at her best at two turns. She rejoins the Martin barn and is back at Belmont, where she has run well in the past. I’m hoping for better odds than the 7-5 morning line, but that may be a pipe dream. If she’s able to run any one of her races from December 2018-September 2019, I don’t see anyone else that go with her.
6.) Victim of Love: This Penn National based filly makes her first start since a dull effort in the Nellie Morse at Laurel going a flat mile. She looks to be better at shorter distances, so the cutback is welcome. She’s another one that doesn’t look like she can go with the top fillies in the later stages of the race.
7.) Pacific Gale: Her first two races of the year at Gulfstream in OC/Allowance company were inexplicably bad. She returned home to Belmont and ran a credible third in the Harmony Lodge in the mud at a big number. Like Chalon, she has a lot of graded stakes experience, but no graded stakes victories. She may offer value at the bottom of the exotics, but that seems like it would be her ceiling.
My Picks: 5-1-3
Belmont 6/27/2020 – Race 8- The New York G2
The filly and mare turf division are split into two races on this card. This is a Grade 2 at 10 Furlongs, while the Just A Game is a Grade 1 at a flat mile. Some really good fillies and mares have competed in both races in the past. This race has a few horses that could be potential stalwarts in this division and a few others that seem to relish longer distances. From a betting standpoint, there are two standouts here for me.
1.) Call Me Love: She made her North American debut last out in the Beaugay where she was a very credible second behind Rushing Fall. Her European form suggests that the 10 Furlong distance of this race should be right in her wheelhouse. I fear the Euro bounce factor a little bit here, but I think she’s very dangerous. I’ll be watching the tote closely to see if she offers better value than Mean Mary, as I think the two are very close. I’m expecting a good stretch battle between those two.
2.) Feel Glorious: Like the one horse, she too, is trained by Christophe Clement. She makes her four year old debut today, while racing a longer distance that she has ever run before. Clement may be using this race to possibly prepare her for races at Saratoga like the Waya and/or the Glen Falls, but this spot seems very ambitious for her at this point.
3.) My Sister Nat: It’s a graded stakes turf race in New York, so Chad Brown will make his presence felt with two mares in this race. This daughter of Acclimation has no early speed whatsoever, and to complicate matters for her, there’s not a lot speed in here. She was finishing strong in the Long Island in November, so perhaps longer races are where she will excel. This race feels too short for her though.
4.) Fool’s Gold: She is also from the Chad Brown barn and also making her first start since November. She won the Waya at 12 Furlongs at Saratoga last summer, but regressed a bit in her final two tries in 2019. She’s another horse that feels like she needs this race and wants to travel a little farther than the 10 Furlongs she’s getting today.
5.) Valiance: She’s a lightly raced filly from the Todd Pletcher barn who is undefeated on turf. This is a big step up in class from any of her four career starts to date. She may turn out to be a very nice filly, but I think it’s more likely that she will need the experience from this race to get better and more competitive in this division.
6.) Mrs. Sippy: In her first career start in North America last year, she won the Glen Falls on closing weekend at Saratoga. She followed up that effort by giving Sistercharlie a legitimate scare in the Flower Bowl, before coming up empty in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Again, like many of her opponents, I think she wants a longer distance, but I think she’s classy enough to be in the exotics here.
7.) Mean Mary: This is a nice filly who put this division on notice this winter at Gulfstream winning both the La Prevoyante Stakes and the Orchid Stakes in front running fashion. She cuts back in distance today, which, unlike for some of the others, shouldn’t be an issue for her. Graham Motion’s horses have been running really well this year, and she may becoming one of the stars of his barn. I hope she remains third choice in the wagering, but I think she will be bet down as she very well could be lone speed.
My Picks: 7-1-6
Belmont 6/27/2020 – Race 9- The True North G2
Sprinters are going 6 ½ Furlongs on the main track here. Only five and six year olds are competing, so no new faces are racing in this spot. However, it’s still an interesting 8 horse field headed by Grade 1 winners, Promises Fulfilled and Firenze Fire.
1.) Diamond King: He has been racing in primarily two turn stakes races over the past few years. He ran a credible fifth in the Bold Ruler at 7 Furlongs behind Maximum Security in October, suggesting that sprint races are in his realm of capabilities. He bobbled at the break in the Blame last out and then hustled up to a fast pace before fading. He is a candidate to move forward on the cutback.
2.) Midnightcharly: Ed Coletti brings two PA Bred sons of sneaky good PA sire, Uptowncharlybrown, to New York. He’s a consistent horse that usually runs his race, but those efforts against PA Breds probably aren’t strong enough to compete at this level. I think he’s here to a get a race under his belt for the year, and then drop back to an easier level of competition.
3.) Wicked Trick: He started his career as primarily a turf horse that struggled to win. He switched to dirt and broke his maiden in 20K maiden claiming company at the Spa in July. He ran back and was claimed by Linda Rice in a 16K NW2L race, also at Saratoga. Since then, he has improved dramatically while focusing on one turn dirt races. He was five lengths behind Diamond King in the Stymie in his race in March. He has improved, but I don’t think he’s good enough to beat these today. However, he might offer the best value underneath, especially if there’s an off track.
4.) Wait For It: The other half of the uncoupled Coletti entry may be a little more talented than his stablemate, but his best races are at two turns. Much like his Midnightcharly, this feels more like a horse that needs a spot to run, as there’s not many allowance races he’s eligible for right now in the Mid-Atlantic region.
5.) Yorkton: He has spent most of his career primarily competing on turf and synthetic at Woodbine, with his most notable win in 2018, winning the G3 Bold Venture at this distance. He wintered at Gulfstream, and his last two dirt starts look pretty good, finishing second to Vekoma and Global Campaign, respectively. He joins the Motion barn, so one can be optimistic that there’s room for improvement. His biggest problem is the presence of Promises Fulfilled who wants the early lead as much as he does. His best chance is if Promises Fulfilled isn’t that sharp off that layoff in the early stages of this race.
6.) Stan The Man: He too, was last seen in the Stymie, and he finished 10 lengths behind Diamond King that day. He was in better form when he was 5th beaten three by Catalina Cruiser in this race last year. His last two have me wondering if his best days are behind him.
7.) Promises Fulfilled: He earned a spot in Justify’s Derby in 2018 by winning the Fountain of Youth, but was trounced on Derby Day, finishing 39 lengths behind the winner. Since then, he has shown that when he is on his game, he has the potential to be one of the top sprinters in the country. His win in the Nerud here last July was sparkling, but he followed that up with two disappointing tries at Saratoga and Keeneland. He’s been working well at Churchill, and he isn’t facing a deep field here. This seems like a reasonable spot to try to start his campaign, that his connections hope lead him to the Winner’s Circle in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in November.
8.) Firenze Fire: What do we do with this guy? He was in some of his most consistent career form this winter, highlighted by a strong win the General George at Laurel. Two weeks later, his former trainer was arrested after an FBI investigation involving doping horses. As handicappers, we’re left to wonder if his best efforts were assisted by a performance enhancer or not? His first start for Kelly Breen in the Carter was probably not the true acid test, as he has not performed well on wet tracks in the past. On the bright side, his best efforts have come on this surface and he could get a favorable pace scenario here. As long as the track is dry, I think needs to be used as there’s no guarantee Promises Fulfilled comes back at 100%, but watch the weather, as afternoon storms are a possibility.
My Picks: 7-8-3
Belmont 6/27/2020 – Race 10- The Just A Game G1
The only Grade 1 race of the day in North America, and it’s a good one! Chad Brown has three entrants, two of which who have won Breeders’ Cup races at 1 Mile. I’d like to be more creative with my picks here, but this race feels like it runs through his barn.
1.) Beau Recall: She had a very good three race stretch last year where she looked like she could be a factor at this level. She flattened out a bit at the end of the season and took an eight month vacation. You can toss her last where she was pinned in along the hedge and never had a chance to run free. I think she’ll improve, but I think her best chance is the back end of the exotics.
2.) Got Stormy: She was so good last year, but I’m starting to think she’s lost a step or two. Her race at Tampa was dull to start her campaign, but she looked closer to her old self, just getting nipped by River Boyer in the Kilroe. Her last behind Rushing Fall was inexplicably bad though. Perhaps she’ll improve when getting back to two turns, but back on this course and facing a deeper field, I can’t endorse her today.
3.) Valedictorian: She is a pace factor here, as she might be the only one quick enough to go with Newspaperofrecord in the early stages. Her recent races don’t get her close with these fillies in the latter stages.
4.) Newspaperofrecord: I wasn’t willing to take her at a short price in the Intercontinental, and she crushed that group. She stretches out to a mile and finds potentially less pace pressure here in the early stages. Her owners might be doing a rain dance for an afternoon storm to soften up the course, as she’s never lost on a yielding course. If she’s able to get loose out front, she’ll be hard to pass.
5.) Regal Glory: In my opinion, she is the filly in here with the most upside right now. She’s tactical enough to be near the front if the pace isn’t too hot. She took a decent step forward in her four year old debut and would seemingly benefit from a firmer course today. We’ve seen many instances when the “other” Chad Brown surprises their stablemate. I think she might offer the best value in this field.
6.) Uni: Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile champ is back to start her six year old campaign. Rosario rode her flawlessly in every race last year, even in defeat. Despite winning the Perfect Sting in 2019, she looked like she needed the race when she returned last year. This may be the best spot to take a swing against her, as she is facing a tough field and might not get an ideal pace setup to assist her devastating late kick.
7.) Zofelle: She was a little closer to the pace in the Mint Julep last time out, and she ran a decent race to be third. She has some upside, but I don’t think she’s ready to beat a field like this just yet.
My Picks: 4-5-6