Woodbine: Race 7 The G3 Bold Venture, 6 and 1/2 Furlongs, Synthetic.
7 horses try to tackle Canadian stalwart sprinter, Pink Lloyd, who has amassed an incredible 24 wins in 29 starts.
1. Roaring Forties: He showed some promise in his three year old campaign, but he picked an awfully tough spot to make his 4 year old debut. He seems like he wants to go longer than this.
2. Malibu Secret: He’s come within 2 lengths of Pink Lloyd in his last two tries against him, but he’s shown no evidence of being able to beat him. He moves back to synthetic after an even effort on the grass against lesser. Hard to envision him running much better than third.
3. Olympic Runner: He moves back to synthetic after two respectable tries on the grass to start his four year old season. He has run his best races on synthetic and cuts back to 6 and 1/2 furlongs. He would benefit from a hot pace, but it’s hard to see that shaping up today.
4. Pink Lloyd: He will be heavily favored to win his 25th career race this afternoon. He has started off his 8 year old campaign in top form. He had an adventurous trip in this race last year when he was declared a nonstarter after a gate mishap. Only two others in this race have come close to the Beyers that he has run on a regular basis.
5. Dun Drum: He ran a career top last out chasing home Pink Lloyd in the Sheppardtown. He is clearly better on synthetic than on grass. He also has run better sprinting than running longer. If can build off his last two synthetic sprints he could an exotics player at a price.
6. Magical Man: He’s come within about 7 lengths of Pink Lloyd in the most recent encounters. It’s hard to envision him doing enough to get much closer to him. I definitely prefer others.
7. Smart Remark: He’s one of two American invaders who are slightly unknown quantities on the Tapeta surface. His two races this year have been very dull after showing a lot of ability sprinting on grass last year, so perhaps the surface switch will be a good wake up call. His best chance is to be out front with an aggressive ride and set the pace here. He has upside at a big number.
8. White Flag: He’s the other American shipping in for Clement. He’s a talented middle distance turf sprinter, so there’s not many opportunities for him to. This race might be a nice set up for a Kentucky Downs race for him. He needed his last and should be competitive if he likes the surface. He has enough early foot to be on the pace as well. The surface switch is a question, and there probably won’t be great value. I’ll cover with him, but I’m hoping to get a few longshots underneath.
My Picks: 4-7-5
Race 8: The Plate Trial, 3yo, 1 Mile and 1/8, Synthetic
This is the local prep for the Queen’s Plate, run this year in September. Four of the six have a live look in here.
1. Glorious Tribute: He has been a non-factor in his two tries in stakes company at two turns. He seems overmatched in this spot today.
2. Dotted Line: StableDuel players might want to take a look at this guy tomorrow as he’s 12-1 on the morning line and I think he has a decent chance. He was third in the Marine here against open company after hopping at the start. He figures to get a good trip from post 2 and he could easily move forward in his third start of the year.
3. Clayton: He aced his first two turn test, beating allowance foes last time out. He’s done nothing wrong in three career tries, but at 4-5 on the morning line, he offers no value, as he doesn’t tower over this field. He’s certainly live, but I’ll try to beat him.
4. Halo Again: Asmussen brings this one back North after taking the Coronation Futurity (at today’s 9 Furlong distance) here as a two year old and winning the Queenston here last month. He was purchased with the Queens Plate in mind. He’ll need to take another step forward. Interesting to note that Hernandez opted to ride Clayton, so Contreras gets the mount on this guy.
5. Northern Thunder: He enters this race after being beaten double digits in his last three against lesser foes. It’s hard to envision a scenario where he hits the board.
6. Elusive Knight: He got within three lengths of Clayton last time after breaking a bit slow. He’s been second in his last four starts, so he is game. He w take a step forward in his third start off the layoff.
My picks: 2-4-3
Race 9: The Grade 2 King Edward, 1 Mile, Turf:
The King Edward is the local prep for the Woodbine Mile next month. This is a decent 8 horse field where I think the morning line favorite is vulnerable.
1. Dream Maker: He resurfaced here last month after a 3rd place finish in the Pat Day Mile last year. He makes his first start ever on grass and picks a tough spot to do so. He’d be a surprise.
2. March to the Arch: He was last seen finishing a close up 6th in the Wise Dan at Churchill, which was a nice rebound after his dull effort in California. He won his only start here and he figures to get a good trip. He’s a logical contender.
3. Mr. Ritz: He will definitely be a pace factor in this race, as speed is his main weapon. He just doesn’t seem to have the same finishing kick on grass as he does on synthetic. I think he will also be compromised by Admiralty Pier in here as I don’t think either will allow each other to have an easy lead.
4. Argentello: He’s made three North American starts after being campaigned in Europe by John Gosden. His last two have been okay, but against lesser competition. This is a big step up for him.
5. Silent Poet: He’s the morning line favorite off two strong wins in a row. However, his races at one mile have been subpar compared to his 7 furlong races. He bounced in the Woodbine Mile last year after a huge effort in the 7 Furlong Play the King. I’m looking to beat him and wouldn’t be surprised if he was off the board.
6. Eskiminzin: He moves up in class after two strong efforts in sprints against lesser foes. He only has one win in five tries at the mile distance though. He’s in good form, but I don’t think he wants to go this far.
7. Admiralty Pier: His last two turf starts have been really good, winning the Tampa Bay Stakes and just getting nipped by Silent Poet on a soft course last out. I think he has a strong chance here in, but, I worry about him dueling with Mr. Ritz. He’s in good form and could move forward on firmer going.
8. Delaware: Chad Brown ships in this son of Frankel after two 7 furlong tries at Belmont. He was a decent second behind his talented stablemate Front Run The Fed, who may be thinking about trying Grade 1 company in the Fourstardave next time out. He’s a Group 3 winner in Europe at the mile, so I think he’s very logical in his third start off the layoff. As long as his price stays around 5-2, I think he’s the play.
My picks: 8-7-2