12/26/2020, Santa Anita, Race 4: The Grade II Mathis Brothers Mile, 3yo, 1 Mile Turf
This is the last graded stakes of the year and the last opportunity for exclusively three year olds to race against their own generation. This race drew a decent field of seven, with three graded stakes winners and two more colts that are graded stakes placed.
- Whisper Not: He is the most interesting horse in this race in my eyes, as he shipped to the states after two straight wins in Europe, including a twenty length maiden romp. He faced older foes in optional claiming/allowance company, where he was flying late to get second. The mile may be a bit too short for him, but he may get a favorable pace scenario to set up his late closing kick. It will come down to value for me, as I think he’s playable at 5-1 or better, and he may have the best chance of anyone of beating Smooth Like Strait, who will be the deserving favorite.
- Strongconstitution: The Hollywood Derby was probably a bit too far and the field was a bit too deep for him last out. He cuts back to the mile, which is his preferred distance. He won the restricted Let It Ride stakes two starts back on the lawn at Del Mar. He has some decent dirt Beyer figures at this distance as well, so you know there is ability. He’s drawn near the rail, so he figures to get a solid ground saving trip. He might be a sneaky horse to use underneath here.
- Storm The Court: Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner has put together a disappointing three year old campaign, going 0-7. However, he is trying to reinvent himself as a turf horse, and this may be the best distance for him, as he is sired by a Breeders’ Cup Mile winner. His two grass tries have been competitive, but I still think he’s a notch below the favorites and some of the others seem to have more upside.
- Heywoods Beach: He figures to be the longest shot on the board in this race. He was second to Strongconstitution in the Let It Ride most recently, but he was clearly outclassed the one time he tried graded stakes foes. He’s run well on the course, so he could wake up a bit, but I think he’s up against too many talented foes this afternoon.
- Smooth Like Strait: If you draw a line through his American Turf performance, where he was wide and then was cooked by a fast early tempo, he has had a sparkling year. He just got nipped in the Hollywood Derby last out when he was beaten by a really strong horse in Domestic Spending. He finished just in front of anther really talented horse in Gufo that day. I don’t see anyone fast enough to go with him early, and I think the mile figures to be a great distance for him. He’ll be a short price, but he is the most likely winner, assuming the course is firm.
- Field Pass: This well-traveled and well-campaigned three year old son of Lemon Drop Kid makes his 10th start of the year and his second trip to Southern California. He most recently won a graded stakes on synthetic at Woodbine for his third Grade 3 win of the year. He’s faced off against Smooth Like Strait three times, finishing in front of him once. You have to respect a horse like this who always shows up, but I’ll be trying to beat him in this spot today.
- Scarto: He’s been very good since transitioning to a two turn turf horse, finishing a close up sixth in the Hollywood Derby, after fighting with Manny Franco early on in the race. Prat takes the mount, which, in my opinion, is an upgrade, especially on the grass. I think he’ll also benefit from an outside post, as opposed to be buried along the rail as he was last out. I don’t think he’s quite good enough to beat Smooth Like Strait on the square, but he’s definitely an exotics consideration here.
My Picks: 5-1-7
12/26/2020, Santa Anita, Race 7: The Grade II San Antonio, 1 Mile and 1/16
A diverse field of eight has assembled for this Grade 2 contest. We have last year’s Pegasus World Cup winner making his first start since February, a highly touted, lightly raced three year old coming in from Kentucky, the third place finisher in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and some of the usual suspects in the California handicap division.
- Take The One O One: He showed a lot of promise as a three year old Cal Bred back in 2018, until an injury derailed his career until this past February. He’s beaten open company against optional claiming/allowance foes, but he has struggled in open stakes company. He’s your likely pacesetter, but he hasn’t shown that he’ll be able to hold off many of these in the stretch.
- Kiss Today Goodbye: He’s one of two three year olds taking on older horses in this race. Earlier in the year, he ran on well to finish 3rd in the Shared Belief at Del Mar. He followed up that effort with two decent tries with graded stakes foes on the grass, before successfully returning to the dirt and beating 1st level allowance company. He’s starting to figure some things out, and three of his last four dirt races have been pretty solid. I don’t think he’s ready for this level just yet though.
- Extra Hope: Mandella looks like he’s finally got this four year old son of Shanghai Bobby on the right track. He’s coming off two straight wins, including a score in the Grade 3 Native Diver last time out. He’s going to have to take another step forward to beat this group, as this field has a lot more depth than his last several races. While he’s improving, it’s hard to tell how high his ceiling is.
- Sharp Samurai: This guy is one of three million dollar earners in this field, and he was most recently third behind Knicks Go in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He hasn’t won a race since October of 2018 in the City of Hope Mile on the grass, but he has been close in grade 1, 2, and 3 races on turf and dirt every time since. He had trouble and was up against the track bias last out and still ran on well. I think the pace scenario fits him well here and if the track is playing fairly, I think today could be the day this guy breaks through.
- Combatant: He’s another million dollar earner, finishing third in the Native Diver most recently. He was the winner of the Big Cap in March here, but since then, his form has continued to regress. Maybe a return to Santa Anita will help, but I have to wonder if his best days are now behind him.
- Midcourt: He won the San Pasqual here in February, and other than his flop in the Gold Cup, he has been right in the thick of things in every start since. He’s got a bunch of triple digit Beyers to show off, but lately, he hasn’t been his best if he can’t make the lead. That’s concerning to me here as there are two faster gate horses in Take The One O One and Extra Hope slotted inside of him, and he’s been sloppy at the start in many of his races. I’ll be trying to beat him today.
- Idol: He debuted in September on Derby Day and was bet like a good thing, finishing second. He came back to win a 7 Furlong maiden special weight at the end of September, and stretched out to win a 1 Mile 3/16 NW1X allowance at Churchill in November. He’s settled in nicely here, working over this course three times, (and twice at Del Mar as well). You don’t often seen horses with this little experience jumping into races like this in this division, so to win, he’ll have to be special. I do think he’s live and he definitely adds to the intrigue of this race.
- Mucho Gusto: He was the emphatic winner of the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream last year, drawing off to win by 4 and ½ lengths. He followed up that effort with a decent 4th place try in the inaugural Saudi Cup, and hasn’t been seen since. He’s been working steadily for Baffert, and seems to be using this race to prep to take another swing at the very lucrative Saudi Cup. Although he’s run well fresh, Baffert’s horses aren’t always at their best off the layoff, and this is a sharp group. I’ll try to beat him.
My Picks: 4-7-8
12/26/2020, Santa Anita, Race 10: The Grade I Malibu, 3yo, 7 Furlongs
This is the last North American Grade 1 for 2020, and it’s a good one. On paper it’s looks like a showdown between Charlatan and Nashville, but there’s a few other contenders in here that might be able to pull off the upset.
- Collusion Illusion: He beat older horses to win the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar this August, so even though that wasn’t the strongest group, he definitely has some ability. He run a bit of a dud in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but when you go back and watch his race, he got cut off twice and never really got the chance to run. 7 Furlongs should be a good distance for him, and he should get a pace to close into, but I’m not certain he’s a good as some of the others in here.
- Thousand Words: He enters this race as the “other” Baffert horse in here, which is a familiar title for him as he’s been in the shadow of Authentic and Uncle Chuck this year back on the Derby Trail. He made headlines for all the wrong reasons when he flipped in the paddock on Derby Day and was subsequently scratched. He’s been running in two turn races ever since his second career start, but he’s always struck me as a horse that would be better suited for one turn races. He’s been more of a grinder at two turns, but I think the pace scenario and his strong foundation could set him up to have a strong late kick in the stretch
- Nashville: He’s the most exciting sprinter in training at the moment and he hasn’t even tried graded stakes company yet. His connections flirted with the idea of trying the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but ultimately opted for an easier spot in the Perryville. He was absolutely dominating that day, ripping off lightning fast fractions and stopping the clock at 1:07:4. He’ll be pressed early and he’ll have to find for another furlong against some talented horses that are cutting back in distance. He may be so good that he’ll run them off their feet anyway, but I am looking to play against him.
- Charlatan: He looked like a man among boys in his first two starts here last winter, and then he handled his business beating a soft field in the Arkansas Derby (where he has since been disqualified). He looked like a horse that would run his best races up to a mile, which isn’t a surprise as he’s sired by Speightstown (who also sires Nashville). It will be interesting to see if he can go with Nashville early on. Unless Nashville completely blows the break, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll have an easy early lead, which has been the case in his first three starts. We haven’t seen him truly tested, and Nashville should push him every step of the way. The two of them could run off and put an insurmountable distance on the rest of the field, but I think it’s more likely that both will be getting a little tired late.
- Express Train: He has been steadily improving on the dirt, and his last two dirt starts have been solid. He tried the turf in the Twilight Derby and wasn’t involved. He showed that he can close into a hot pace in a sprint three starts back at Del Mar, and that should be the scenario again today. This is a big step up, but a bottom of the exotics finish isn’t out of the question for the horse that will likely be the longest shot on the board.
- Independence Hall: He won his first three career starts, including a smashing win the Grade 3 Nashua at Aqueduct at a one turn mile last November. He dabbled on the Derby Trail this spring, but one turn racing should be where he excels. He’s been moved to the McCarthy barn, and he aced his first Southern California test last month. He’ll have to move forward off that race, but this race sets up very nicely for him. I think he also has a very live shot to upset the favorites.
My Picks: 2-6-4