Today in Louisville two runners will earn their spot in Breeders’ Cup races along with a nice payday. Here are my thoughts on the action, good luck!
Race 9 – The Fleur de Lis, Grade 2 (1 1/8 mile, dirt) for fillies and mares, four years old and upward
This race features one who many feel is the best horse in training after her performance in the Saudi Cup, Midnight Bisou. There are 6 others set to try and prove that theory wrong including multiple stakes graded winner Serengeti Empress.
#1 Go Google Yourself – Has won a couple of graded stakes races for McGee (the only real producer for his barn in 2020) and outside of the two top choices has the most likely chance to spring an upset, but it isn’t likely.
#2 Another Broad – The name is somewhat fitting for her in this race as she is likely going to be an also ran. It’s hard to count any Pletcher runner out, but don’t think she can compete here.
#3 Chocolate Kisses – This filly has been working well leading up to this race and has a legitimate shot at a placing. She is likely to be running behind the top flight looking for a collapse to run into.
#4 Serengeti Empress – She has fired a few duds, including her last performance, but this Grade 1 winner has dangerous speed (only other horse with a triple digit Beyer) and can’t be counted out. There is no doubt her strategy will be to send and play catch me if you can.
#5 Midnight Bisou – The current NTRA Poll leader for top thoroughbred ran a monster effort in the Saudi Gold Cup against the boys. She has never finished off the board in 20 starts, which is a pretty amazing feat. The workouts show that Bisou is not slowing down and will be extremely tough in this one.
#6 Red Dane – This Italian mare would need some intervention from the Vatican to get things done today.
#7 Motion Emotion – A talented filly has way over exceeded the expectations of her 55k purchase price. She could get up for a piece of the board.
Serengeti Empress will take the early lead with Go Google Yourself and Motion Emotion close enough to apply some pressure with Midnight Bisou right behind them. Serengeti Empress should be a little loose and will have to maintain control to avoid burnout. Bisou will need to engage earlier to keep her honest and then make her move around the turn.
Selections: 5-4-1
Race 10 – The Stephen Foster, Grade 2 (1 1/8 miles, dirt) for four year olds and upward
Eight vie for a birth in the $7 million Breeder’s Cup Classic including two of the top five thoroughbreds in the latest NTRA poll, By My Standards and Tom’s d’Etat.
#1 Fearless – A nice four year old gelding who is a bit of a late bloomer should have a nice showing today. It will take an improvement to get the win today, but Pletcher can get the most out of a horse and he may be ready for a jump after a great effort last race.
#2 Pirate’s Punch – This is an aggressive placement for this horse who is more than likely and allowance/non-graded stakes type. Has early speed and will be looking to set the pace.
#3 Alkhaatam – Similar to #2 this horse is overmatched. He ran eleventh in this race last year.
#4 Multiplier – He just missed a G1 victory in March, but he is on a 7 day turnaround after running second in an AOC at Santa Anita. Could factor in the trifecta or superfecta.
#5 Tom’s d’Etat – Albert Stall Jr. has won this race before (Blame, 2010) and led this horse to a third place finish in this race last year. Since that race this 7 year old has won 4 of 5 including a G1 and a G2. He is a major contender who has won 10 of 17 career races.
#6 By My Standards – 2020 has been a break out year for this colt who has been working well since winning the Oaklawn Handicap in May which propelled him to the second ranking in the NTRA poll. He recorded his first triple digit Beyer in that race and will need to keep the forward trajectory going to get the win today.
#7 Silver Dust – A talented son of Tapit who is a graded winner and often finds himself competitive in these races. He is also trained by Calhoun and may serve as a bit of a pace maker for #6, but that isn’t meant to downplay his ability.
#8 Owendale – This graded stakes winner comes off a non-graded win for Brad Cox with Geroux. He is a solid late runner who with the exception of the BC Classic and Travers has been in position to win ever race he has been in since the Risen Star in 2019. He will be competitive today, but will need an improvement to win.
Several will likely go out strong including Pirate’s Punch, Alkhaatam, and Silver Dust with By My Standards right off of them in a stalking trip. Tom’s d’Etat and Multiplier should be in the next flight with Fearless and Owendale dropping back into closing positions. The pace should be contested creating some swift fractions. Tom’s d’Etat and By My Standards should be hearing toward the lead around the stretch and Owendale and Fearless will be making late runs at them. I look for Fearless to make a big late run and surprise.
Selections: 1-6-5