Here are my thoughts on the Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap & the Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Good luck!
Race 7 – Del Mar Handicap, Grade 2 (1 3/8 mile, turf) for three year olds and upward
#1 United – On a roll with three G2 wins in a row, including one last month at Del Mar. Will be a big favorite here and is deserving, but one of these beat him in 2019. Only it’s not 2019 anymore.
#2 Another Mystery – McCarthy is 0/20 with first time starters to his barn, can’t see this one with a shot to win here, but could be right off the pace and catch some of the tri/super.
#3 Combatant – A G1 winner on dirt, has never won a turf race in eight tries, I don’t see any reason to think today will be the day to change that.
#4 Big Buzz – Huge jump in class, may serve as cheap speed here, but likely not much of a factor.
#5 Ward ‘n Jerry – Quality horse who will be involved in the outcome, may not be fast enough anymore, but should be an exotics player.
#6 Proud Pedro – Hasn’t done much in Graded action before, but is coming off a nice AOC win, could hit the board.
#7 Red King – Coming off a nice G3 win on a big bump, this horse is a competitor even though he isn’t as fast as others. He seems to always finish somewhere in the super.
#8 New Year – Placement of this horse looks like a filler for the racing secretary, doesn’t have a win beyond a 35k claiming race. Throw out.
#9 Oscar Dominguez – Multiple graded stakes placings and had a G2 win over the favorite last year. This horse has a great late kick, but it has lost punch of late. Should factor in the exotics.
#10 Originaire – Another multiple graded stakes placed horse here who has taken on the favorite and hung around in the last couple of races. Not likely to have enough, but will make it interesting.
#11 North County Guy – A horse with a lot of grit that always puts in a solid effort. Must consider for exotics.
This race is United’s to lose. He would need to regress for the others to have a chance, and while one day it will come, I don’t think today is the day. It is nice to see a big field for the race which should improve exotic payouts. There are some fillers here, but a good group running for 2-4.
Selections: 1-10-7-5
Race 10 – Pacific Classic, Grade 1 (1 ¼ mile, dirt) for three year olds and upward
#1 Midcourt – Put it right to Max Security last time and just missed by a nose-expecting a similar effort today to go right at him. He has a G2 win under his belt, could add a G1 today.
#2 Higher Power – Won this race last year which set up his 3rd place finish in the BC Classic. Will run hard and put up a solid effort, just not sure he has never really beaten the best.
#3 Mirinaque – Ships in for a shot at the BC from Argentina. He is one of the top horses in Argentina so will be interesting to see how that translates to form here. He is used to running in big fields, I wonder how he handles a small group?
#4 Dark Vader – Solid horse, but stepping up too much here, would need the power of the dark side to get the win.
#5 Maximum Security – We all know the story here, staggering to look at the earnings and see nearly 12 million. Struggled for the win last time, but showed the heart he has once again. Baffert is 30% with horses who won last out, and I would guess for Graded Stakes horses that number might be higher than that.
#6 Sharp Samurai – While he does have a dirt win, this is a turf horse they are taking a shot with. Will be interesting to see how his late style works with all the speed.
As much as I’d like to beat the favorite, I don’t think his story is over yet. Should improve off of last effort and will hold off Midcourt again. Could be wide open for third place with a couple of unknown factors.
Selections: 5-1-3