The La Brea
- Princess Mo- G.Fanco/ Gomez
- Princess Mo seems to be in over her head here and her ML reflects that as she is 50/1 ML. She struggled against MSW company and finally broke through at 68/1 in February. She came back in a OC 40K at Los Al two weeks ago and ran 6th. I truly don’t understand the placing of this horse today and I will be staying away as I just don’t see her performing well enough to finish anywhere close to the money today.
- Merneith- Velazquez/ Baffert
- Merneith is one of 4 Baffert horses in this field today. She has won against stakes company before which was her most recent start at Keenland on Breeders Cup weekend. John Velazquez rides her today which will be for the first time and I think she can press the pace well today and be able to get the right set up. 7F is a tough distance to excel at and I think she actually is more of a 7F horse or a 1 turn mile type of horse. I think that this filly will be tough to beat if the set up is there.
- Himiko- Prat/ Baffert
- Himiko, is the 2nd Baffert horse in today out of 4 entries. Prat gets to ride this one and Prat doesn’t ride for Baffert often but when he does, they connect very well. Himiko can also press the pacesetters if she doesn’t get the lead herself. She hasn’t faced a stakes company yet but has beaten winners very well. I think she could be another solid horse in this field and a solid horse in the future. Will be used on all tickets.
- Secret Keeper- Cedillo/ Sise Jr.
- Secret Keeper ran horrible in the Raven Run but ran well in California. I can see that something was off at Keenland as she came back to California and has been training well at San Luis Rey training center. Cedillo can be aggressive early when he asked to be, and I think this filly will be sent early since the two horses inside of her will also be sent early to get position. She should be around 6/1-8/1 odds so if you like her chances today the odds should be nice.
- Finite- Santana Jr./ Asmussen
- Finite is an Asmussen shipper coming out west for the first time. Even jockey Ricardo Santana Jr, has switched his tack to Santa Anita for the winter which was a very unexpected move this year for him. He gets to ride Finite again as he is her usual rider. Santana has ridden her to victory against multiple Graded stakes company horses in the Rachel Alexandra and Golden Rod at Fair Ground and Churchill Downs respectively. I think she is more of a Mile distance horse and 7F could be too short. However, in the Raven Run she closed well and just missed at 7F which is a good sign. I will be using her on all tickets but I don’t know if she is in my top 3 just yet.
- Biddy Duke- Hernandez/ O’Neill
- Biddy Duke is a cheaper horse in this field but she has ran some very solid races. She seems to be in just a little over her head but she has a Grade 3 victory over the Turf course at SA. Juan Hernandez is riding amazingly since moving his tack south to Southern California. I think she can sit close but she is definitely a sprinter and 7F might be too far.
- Provocation- Rosario/ Baffert
- Provocation is the 3rd Baffert of the bunch of 4. Joel Rosario gets to ride this one and it seems to be the lesser of the 4. She is coming into this race 2nd off the layoff and seems to be the rabbit of the group. The rabbit is when a horse is put into a race simply to be sent to the lead and set the race up for the trainers other entries to close better. She should go to the lead and duel with Motivated Seller setting up the other Bafferts in my eyes. I will be tossing this horse and will be against her today.
- Motivated Seller- Rispoli/ Brown
- Motivated Seller is Chad Brown’s entry in this field and gets the very talented Umberto Rispoli aboard today. Motivated Seller has ran very well in her lightly raced tenure. She just missed at Keenland on Breeders Cup day to Merneith so the added distance should help. She should be pressing early but can also be quick enough to get the lead. I think she might actually be sent early to try and get control of the race early. If she gets the lead by herself she could be hard to catch but with so much pace lined up early, it will be hard.
- Fair Maiden- Gonzalez/ Harty
- Fair Maiden is not a contender in this field to me. I think she actually prefers Turf or Synthetic compared to dirt surfaces. Gonzalez had a great Los Al meet coming into today but I think he would have to get this horse to improve immensely in order to win here and I will be leaving her off all tickets.
- Golden Principal- Smith/ Baffert
- Golden Principal is the last of the Baffert bunch and gets hall of fame rider Mike Smith. Big Money Mike keeps the mount today and I think that is a good sign. The odds on this filly will be 6/1 or more so the value on Big Money Mike and Bob Baffert is very appetizing. I think she isn’t as good as the other 3 but she definitely is playable.She seems to be close to the lead in every start and some races she wore down the leaders and others she faded. I wonder which side of her we get today.
- Stellar Sound- Espinoza/ McCarthy
- Stellar Sound will be pressing early but might need to be sent early due to the post position. Victor Espinoza is a hall of fame rider for a reason and I think he can get Stellar Sound in the right spot early on. I think she is in over her head though and I will be tossing her today. Just don’t see much talent in her and the post position doesn’t help.
TOP PICKS:
#3 Himiko
#5 Finite
#2 Merneith
American Oaks
- Red Lark (IRE)- Van Dyke/ Gallagher
- Red Lark should benefit from the added distance but it will be a tall task regardless. Van Dyke has rode her in the last 5 starts and also was aboard her when she broke her maiden. I think this is the better of the two Patrick Gallagher fillies in this field. She will be closing late so the added distance will give her more time to get going. I like her today but not enough to be in my top 3.
- Miss Addie Pray- Smith/ Gallagher
- Miss Addie Pray is the other Gallagher horse and I am not that big of a fan. Mike Smith stays aboard though and that is a good sign when it comes to stakes races. I think the added distance is perfect for her as she did break her maiden at this distance. So maybe she prefers this distance but I think she is outclassed here by a lot.
- Capital Structure- Rosario/ Brown
- Capital Structure is Chad Brown’s entry in here and Joel Rosario gets to ride this filly today. She has been training very well coming into this race also. She seems to be a mid pack type of horse that makes one run. The best jockey to ride this horse is Rosario in my opinion. The added distance could help but Rosario will need to make her relax early on so she has stamina later on in the race. I like this filly a lot today.
- Going to Vegas- Gutierrez/ Batlas
- Going to Vegas is a hanger in my eyes. She seems to be so close at all times but can’t get the job done and also is in over her head. She has only beaten claiming company and has struggled in other races to get past the leader. She has two seconds in Grade 3 races in which she probably should have won but couldn’t finish the job. I don’t think today will be any easier.
- Luck Money- Santana Jr./ Delacour
- Luck Money is coming into this race in very good form. Santana gets to ride her today and that is a very good opportunity for him. However, I think Santana Jr. rides better on the dirt than the turf. Regardless of jockey, Luck Money can definitely do the distance and the only question is the class. She will be pressing early or sitting mid pack. If the trip is there for her it will be hard for her to be caught once she passes the leaders in the stretch.
- Guitty(FR)- Hernandez/ Powell
- Guitty is in way over her head and I truly don’t see how she can win here. She has class but she hasn’t done much against those fields and the longer distance could be the game changer but she will need to step it up a lot more than normally in order to compete here.
- California Kook- Gonzalez/ Miller
- California Kook is in for Peter Miller and she seems to be a little better than some of the other longshots in this field. She seems to be more of a mile and 8th type of horse and I don’t think she has the stamina to compete at this distance. Peter Miller is Peter Miller and he gets these horses home so I wouldn’t leave her off any tickets.
- Duopoly- Prat/ Brown
- Duopoly is Chad Brown’s other entrant here and I think she will be on the lead early with Prat. She could be on the lead by herself as well and if that is the case the distance will be the only question. She also needs to step up in class but I think she can do that. Only worry for me with her is the distance today.
- Sharing- Velazquez/ Motion
- Sharing is Graham Motion’s entrant today and besides the Matriarch at Del Mar she has been having a great career. The distance is definitely too far in my opinion, but she has the class to compete here if the distance doesn’t bother her. I will be using her on all tickets but also she won’t be in my top 3 due to the distance.
- Neige Blanche(FR)- Rispoli/ Powell
- Neige Blanche is Powell’s other entrant and I think she has a good shot in here. She can do the distance and gets Rispoli aboard today who is the best turf jockey out west in my opinion. I think she will get some class relief today as the last two races were tougher fields. I think the post is her biggest flaw today and hopefully she can sit closer today. Will be using on all tickets.
TOP PICKS:
#3 Capital Structure
#5 Luck Money
#1 Red Lark