Saturday August 24th: Race 9 at Saratoga Race Course. The $700,000 Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes Presented by Lia Infiniti run at 1 1/8th miles on the dirt for fillies and mares, three years old and upward. (Post Time: 4:12 PM EDT)
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Selections: 4-1-5
The 2019 edition of the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes is an interesting affair for several reasons. First and foremost, as this race is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series (i.e. a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” race), the filly or mare that emerges victorious on Saturday afternoon will gain automatic entry into the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff to be held on Saturday November 2nd at Santa Anita Park. Now it should be noted that both of the two main contenders in this field, Midnight Bisou and Elate, have secured entry into the BC Distaff already by virtue of their respective wins in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes at Belmont Park and G2 Fleur de Lis Handicap at Churchill Downs both back in June. Thus a victory for either of them in this race would essentially be “icing on the cake” and would help deny another rival entry into the BC Distaff.
The second reason that makes this year’s offering of the Personal Ensign such an intriguing affair revolves around the filly Midnight Bisou. Thus far, the daughter of Midnight Lute is a perfect 5 for 5 whilst racing entirely against graded stakes company. A win on Saturday would obviously bring that record to a perfect 6 for 6 and with likely only one more prep race and then the BC Distaff to follow, such an effort would not only cement Midnight Bisou’s status as the clubhouse leader for an Eclipse Award in the “Older Dirt Female Division” but also might make her an appealing candidate to challenge Bricks and Mortar for potential Horse of the Year honors. However, in order to be able to secure that 6th graded stakes victory of the year, Midnight Bisou will need to defeat Elate along with four other rivals, which brings us to our third and final point of why this edition of the Personal Ensign will certainly be a race worth watching on Saturday afternoon.
Midnight Bisou and Elate have already tangled twice this year and each time the filly has emerged victorious over the mare. However, these two heavyweights have not met since April 14th at Oaklawn Park in which Midnight Bisou was able to hold off Escape Clause to win by a nose in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap, whilst Elate finished further back in third. Each of the meetings this year were held at Oaklawn Park and were run at Midnight Bisou’s preferred distance of eight and a half furlongs. Now the series shifts to a track both colossi are intimately familiar with, Saratoga, and to a distance, nine furlongs, in which the mare Elate may have the advantage. This edition of the Personal Ensign certainly appears to have the potential to evolve into a match race as Midnight Bisou and Elate look primed to go toe to toe down the stretch as each contender puts in their bid for division supremacy. All in all, this is one race being offered on the 2019 Runhappy Travers Stakes undercard, that you do not want to miss!
Now without further ado, let’s turn our attention to the field set to contest the nine furlongs of this year’s Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes.
1. Midnight Bisou: (Steve Asmussen/Mike Smith) 6/5 ML
Four Year Old Filly by Midnight Lute
TimeForm: 74 Early Pace/ 116 Late Pace
Without question, Midnight Bisou is an extremely talented filly. Since turning four, she’s rattled off five straight graded stakes victories this year beginning with the G3 Houston Ladies Classic Stakes at Sam Houston way back on January 27th and culminating with a win in the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher Stakes at Monmouth Park last month. Her triumph in the G1 Ogden Phipps Stakes in June at Belmont Park saw her earn a career best 127 TimeForm speed rating as well as gain entry into the prestigious Breeders’ Cup Distaff in November. But, not everything is roses regarding this filly. Her five wins this year have been by a combined margin of just over 6 ¼ lengths. In two career starts at Saratoga, she is winless (although she did run second and third in those two tries at the track). Finally, and perhaps most importantly, although Midnight Bisou has yet to finish out of the money in her career as she is a perfect 16 for 16 in that regard, it should be noted that the filly is a perfect 9 for 9 when racing at eight and a half furlongs; when she stretches out beyond that distance, her record falls to 4-0-1-3. This is certainly interesting as the last time that Midnight Bisou attempted a race beyond 8.5 furlongs was in last year’s BC Distaff in which she finished third at Churchill Downs (all her races this year have been run at 8.5 furlongs). Furthermore, her effort on Saturday will be the first time since last May that she has attempted to make a third off the layoff start; she ended up finishing 3rd last year in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks that year.
Before discussing Midnight Bisou’s running style, it is important to note that while she does have a stablemate in this race in the filly She’s a Julie. However, since there is no common ownership between the pair, the idea of trainer Steve Asmussen using the latter as a rabbit for the former can be tossed right out the window. Rather, while the TimeForm Pace Projector does expect She’s a Julie to be at the front of this race early on, pace-setting duties will likely fall to the rival drawn in-between the two Asmussen trainees, Coach Rocks. A rather moderate early pace is likely to ensue (unless of course Luis Saez gets it in his head to use Coach Rocks to try and burn up his rivals on the front end and create conditions that result in an unfavorable pace scenario for the likes of Midnight Bisou and Elate) and in turn, this should suit Midnight Bisou’s off the pace running style quite well. Traditionally, this filly has run as a mid-pack stalker, although given the compact nature of this field and her good tactical ability, it would be no surprise to see her shadow the initial leaders in this race from just a length or two off of the pace, especially considering she has drawn the rail position where she will be able to save ground the entire trip. Looking over her past efforts this year, one would expect jockey Mike Smith to keep Midnight Bisou in contact with her rivals early on whilst saving as much ground as possible and then only once the field enters the stretch unleash that powerful late closing kick of hers.
Over the past three years, Asmussen has done quite well with runners that won their last race as he has managed to put together a 20% win rate (55% in the money rate) from 1263 starts during that time period. Meanwhile, Mike Smith (who has been aboard Midnight Bisou for nine of her last ten starts) has been riding exceptionally well in route races this year as he boasts a 32% win rate (65% in the money rate) from 63 starts. Finally, on August 12th Midnight Bisou fired off a bullet five furlong work over the Saratoga training track which suggests she will be coming into this race fresh and ready to go to work once again. She is likely to be tested though in this race as I believe that while nine furlongs certainly is well within her wheelhouse, it is not her preferred distance and rather the competitive edge goes to her rival Elate. Furthermore, she has not attempted a third off the layoff start since last May and in contrast to last year (when Asmussen pretty much ran her ragged as she amassed eight starts between March and November), Midnight Bisou has been a little more protected this year with more time off in-between some of her starts. Ultimately this is one talented filly who certainly fits well into this race and should give another supreme effort, but she will not be my top choice here as that honor will go to her main rival in this field.
2. Coach Rocks (Dale Romans/Luis Saez) 20-1 ML
Four Year Old Filly by Oxbow
TimeForm: 101 Early Pace/73 Late Pace
Last time out on July 20th at Monmouth Park in the eight and a half furlong Grade 3 Molly Pitcher Stakes, Coach Rocks set the pace for nearly the entirety of the race before being run down deep in the stretch by Midnight Bisou. Despite her very game effort, she was forced to settle for second, losing by just a length. The fractions for that race were incredibly slow (TimeForm has actually coded nearly all the fractions for that race as being slow) and as such the 108 speed rating that Coach Rocks earned for her performance that day is quite low. On Saturday, this filly is going to have to step her game way up in order to have any chance whatsoever at being competitive. Not only will she be moving up from Grade 3 to Grade 1 company, but also she will be stretching out to nine furlongs for the first time since last May and this could cause some issues for her. It’s not that Coach Rocks can’t handle the distance (although she likely is better going shorter than nine panels), it’s that given her running style and the presence of several others in this field that will likely desire to be forwardly placed, she could find herself being pushed along whilst on the lead and coerced into running fractions that are admittedly more swift than she can withstand. As such, it would be no surprise to see her inherit pace-setting duties after breaking from the gates (the TimeForm Pace Projector suggests as much) but then begin to fade down the stretch as she as has used up all of her stamina and no longer has the ability to hold off her rivals on the front end.
In two career starts at Saratoga, Coach Rocks has failed to hit the board. Additionally, over the past three years Dale Romans does not have the best graded stakes record as he has won just 10% and finished in the money in just 33% of the 178 stakes he’s entered runners into. On the other hand, Luis Saez has been riding quite well in route races this year (25% win rate and 57% in the money rate from 184 starts) and this filly has been exhibiting some very solid morning works over the main track at Saratoga leading up to this race. All in all though, Coach Rocks appears to be greatly outclassed here. Her speed figures are quite slow when compared to her main rivals. Her running style of a pace-setter/presser will likely be her downfall and nine furlongs is possibly just a little too far for her to carry that speed, especially given the presence of some heavy-hitting rivals in this field with great late closing speed.
3. She’s a Julie (Steve Asmussen/ Ricardo Santana Jr) 12-1 ML
Four Year Old Filly by Elusive Quality
TimeForm: 99 Early Pace/91 Late Pace
Last time out on July 21st in the Grade 3 Shuvee Stakes going nine furlongs at Saratoga, She’s a Julie was expected to make the early pace for the race but essentially “threw in the towel” almost immediately, took up a pressing role instead and was out-kicked down the stretch and had to settle for third. The fractions for that race were absolutely glacial and as a result, She’s a Julie earned only a 108 TimeForm speed rating for her efforts. On Saturday, the connections will undoubtedly be looking for a much better effort and a return to the form that she displayed earlier this spring. Although She’s a Julie will be stepping up in class from a Grade 3 to a Grade 1, in her limited forays into this class level, she’s proven that she belongs and if she can return to anywhere close to the 118 speed rating she earned for her Fleur de Lis effort, then she should be competitive. Furthermore, nine furlongs likely should not present too many issues for this filly as her last two efforts have both come at the distance and she acquitted herself well, finishing third each time. As for her running style, well fortunately for her, she will not likely be called upon to make the pace in this race; instead, given her pace-pressing ability, she will likely settle into that role once again in order to ensure that her rival, Coach Rocks, doesn’t get tardy on the front end and to make sure that the initial fractions being set down are moderate. This is not to suggest though that she will be used as a rabbit for her stablemate Midnight Bisou as the two fillies have different owners and I highly doubt that the connections of the former will be pleased seeing their filly used merely as a pace-setter in this race for the latter.
Ricardo Santana Jr has been the go to jockey for trainer Steve Asmussen for quite some time now and over the past 60 days when riding for Asmussen, Santana has won with 18% of his 91 mounts and finished in the money 48% of the time. Furthermore, he has been aboard She’s a Julie for each of her past 10 trips and thus that familiarity between horse and rider could work to her benefit. Back on August 12th, this filly fired off a bullet five furlong work (done in conjunction with Midnight Bisou) and this suggests that she is coming into this race in fine form. Now the main concern regarding She’s a Julie is this: can she take the necessary steps forward at this stage in her career in order to be able to turn the tables on her stablemate and Elate or will she have to settle for a minor award once again? I’m opting for the latter. Even if She’s a Julie can find a way to return to the form she was displaying back in the spring and is able to get back to the speed figures that she produced in those efforts, it likely will not be enough. The two heavyweights in this field are just simply better than she is and unless both of them have an off day, she will not be able to hold off those late closing runs especially after tangling with Coach Rocks on the front end and having Golden Award breathing down her neck.
4. Elate (Bill Mott/Jose Ortiz) 7/5 ML
Five Year Old Mare by Medaglia d’Oro
TimeForm: 83 Early Pace/103 Late Pace
Saturday is a date that likely has been circled long ago on Bill Mott’s calendar. It is the day on which the Claiborne Farm homebred gets her chance at revenge. Twice this year, both times at Oaklawn Park, this great mare has been defeated by her younger rival Midnight Bisou. But each of those efforts came at eight and a half furlongs and perhaps back then Elate wasn’t in proper form yet as prior to this spring she had not raced since last year’s edition of this race. Now, the two distaff rivals will meet once again but at nine furlongs this time, a distance that is much more to Elate’s liking (although it could be argued that perhaps ten panels is where she is at her best). Last time out in the ten furlong Grade 2 Delaware Handicap, Elate looked like her old self as she was in prime form finishing that race geared down after making a four-wide bid to get into contention in the far turn and then easily driving past her rivals. Elate’s four and a half length victory was testament to how easily she handled that field and the 122 TimeForm speed rating she earned for that performance is the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field. Last year Elate was beset by injuries, only running twice (including a heartbreaking loss in this race by a neck to Abel Tasman) and then she appeared quite rusty at the beginning of this year when squaring off against Midnight Bisou down in Arkansas. This Saturday though with a return to a track at which she has run quite well at (never out of the exacta in three trips) and at a distance in which she excels (four out of five times in the exacta when racing over nine furlongs), there is the definite possibility that Elate will be able to turn the tables on her younger rival.
Elate’s primary running style is that of a mid-pack stalker and while she does not have great late closing speed (that honor falls to Wow Cat), she is not without a solid kick. Just like rival Midnight Bisou, Elate also has a stablemate entered into this race. And just like Midnight Bisou and She’s a Julie, Elate and Golden Award do not share common ownership and thus the chances of the latter being used as a rabbit to help out Elate are slim to none. Moreover, the presence of other runners in this field with good early speed should help to ensure that the resulting initial pace of the race is at the very least moderate and as such should allow the race to set up quite well for Elate.
Just like he’s done for the past ten starts, Jose Ortiz gets the call to ride this mare on Saturday. Over the past 60 days he’s won with 33% of his 12 mounts for Bill Mott and finished in the money 67% of the time; moreover, he has been winning at a 24% when riding in route races this year and has been on fire recently at Saratoga (23% win rate over the course of the meet). This start will be Elate’s third off her most recent layoff (an occurrence that has only happened twice previously for her) and Mott has only done marginally well with runners making starts under these circumstances over the past three years (13% win rate and 43% in the money rate from 157 starts). Finally, Elate does show a sharp four furlong work over the Saratoga training track leading up to this race and it should indicate that all systems are go for another solid effort on Saturday. I am of the opinion that in this year’s edition of the Personal Ensign, Elate will finally be able to turn the tables on her rival Midnight Bisou as the slight stretchout in distance should be to her advantage and she appears to have gotten into prime form at the right time. If Ortiz can given Elate a nice ground saving trip throughout and get the jump on Smith and Midnight Bisou as the field hits the top of the stretch, expect to see a battle commence, but one in which this daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is able to emerge from victorious.
5. Wow Cat (Chad Brown/John Velazquez) 5-1 ML
Five Year Old Mare by Lookin At Lucky
TimeForm: 68 Early Pace/122 Late Pace
Last time out in the Grade 2 Shuvee Stakes at Saratoga back on July 21st when racing nine furlongs, the pace for the race was absolutely crawling. Unfortunately for Wow Cat that resulted in a massively unfavorable pace scenario for her and although she did make a valiant effort in the latter stages of the race, she was simply outfinished and had to settle for a well-beaten second behind Golden Award. The 109 TimeForm speed rating that she earned was a far cry from the figures she had been posting last year but in all fairness that was her first start following a 260 day layoff so some rustiness was certainly expected and the compromising slow pace did not help matters either. Throughout her career, Wow Cat has never been out of the money in 13 starts, although it should be noted that she has only won once since coming over to the United States from her native Chile. In five lifetime tries at Saturday’s nine furlong distance, Wow Cat has never finished out of the trifecta and she has been in the money in all three races she has run at Saratoga (although she has never won at the track before). Thus on Saturday, while Wow Cat will be stepping slightly up in company, she will be back at a track with which she is intimately familiar, racing at her preferred distance, and should encounter a much more favorable pace scenario.
Although Brisnet has Wow Cat’s running style listed as that of a mid-pack stalker, she is a little more versatile than that. Over the course of her five starts here in the U.S., Wow Cat has run as a pace-presser, a mid-pack stalker and as a deep closer. Moreover, she possesses the best late pace figures amongst the entire field, which should serve her well as the TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated it is quite likely that she will be towards the rear of the field early on. It is interesting to note that the path that Wow Cat is taking this year is the exact same one she embarked on last year that resulted in an eventual second place finish behind Monomoy Girl in the BC Distaff. Thus the thought that although Wow Cat will certainly be sharper than she was last time out, perhaps she will not be fully cranked up for this race once again as the ultimate goal might be another run in the BC Distaff in November. Her recent pattern of morning works seems to support that sentiment as while the works have been solid, none have been particularly flashy or sharp which suggests that perhaps Wow Cat may be at somewhere between 70-80% of her maximum ability coming into this race. Now over the past three years, Chad Brown has done remarkably well with runners making their second starts off of a layoff winning at a 25% rate from 377 starts and finishing in the money 62% of the time. Now although John Velazquez has ridden Wow Cat just twice in her five starts, he has been riding lights out in route races this year as he has won 30% of his past 108 starts. There is the definite possibility that Wow Cat could run quite well on Saturday and possibly upset one of the two heavy favorites in this race, especially if one of them has an off-day; however, to suggest that at this moment Wow Cat appears to be in a position to take down both Midnight Bisou and Elate seems a little far-fetched. Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wow Cat charging hard down the lane late and nipping one of the two major contenders in this field to steal second or possibly lose a photo for place and wind up third.
6. Golden Award (Bill Mott/Tyler Gaffalione) 8-1 ML
Four Year Old Filly by Medaglia d’Oro
TimeForm: 91 Early Pace/86 Late Pace
Last time out in the G2 Shuvee Stakes going nine furlongs at Saratoga, the spotlight was thrust upon Golden Award as she was forced into the rather uncomfortable and somewhat unfamiliar role of serving as the pace-setter of the race after the expected leader, She’s a Julie, unexpectedly quit early on. The filly responded by setting a glacial pace that in the end compromised the late-running types in the race and allowed her to gradually lengthen her lead such that she won comfortably by two and a quarter lengths at the wire. The 110 TimeForm speed rating that she earned for her efforts was quite slow (at least when compared to some of the numbers being set forth by other rivals in this field throughout the year) but was actually only three points off of her career best. Now on Saturday, Golden Award will need to step things up quite a bit as she makes her first foray against Grade 1 company. This filly has run twice before at Saratoga (the other time came when she ran second in a $85K Maiden effort last July) and Golden Award has run twice at this distance (the other instance was when she finished second in the Grade 3 Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes back in May at Pimlico.
As mentioned previously, Golden Award is the stablemate of Elate but as the two do not share common ownership and considering her running style, there is no reason to believe that Golden Award will be used as a rabbit in this race to help set up the pace for Elate. Rather, given Golden Award’s primary running style of a pace-presser/stalker, she will likely be positioned close to the initial leaders early on (the TimeForm Pace Projector has her racing in third by the half mile marker) and then will try and make first run on those at the front before the late runners like Elate, Midnight Bisou and Wow Cat get rolling. That is her best chance of scoring anything close to resembling an upset in this field or at the very least being able to secure a minor award by finishing underneath simply given the fact that she is just not as fast late as the likes of those three aforementioned rivals and would likely not survive a drawn out stretch battle with any of them. Now Tyler Gaffalione has been aboard this filly for each of her past five starts and outside of a lone fourth place finish at Keeneland back in April, has never been out of the money when aboard. Furthermore, Bill Mott has done fairly well with runners making their second start following a layoff as over the past three years, he has posted a 15% win rate and 43% in the money rate from 287 starts. Finally, Golden Award shows a solid four furlong work over the Saratoga training track leading up to this race which suggests she should be able to give another good account of herself. However, it is likely going to take an absolutely massive career best effort from this filly for her to pull off an upset in this race and thus the ceiling for her is probably a minor award.