- Sneaking Out – Ortiz/ Hollendorfer
- I think 12/1 ML on this horse is a little high for my liking. I think she is more of a 6/1 type of horse. Sure the rail is tough at 6 Furlongs, especially with the #2 Break Even drawn directly next to her who should be the speed of the speed early on. She had a pretty solid 2 and 3yo campaign. However the layoff of 6 months going into her last start was concerning but she came back to win at OP in an Allowance race. Career high beyer in that debut 4yo race as well, but I think she needs a comfortable rail trip in order for her to be in this and hopefully Jose Ortiz can give that to her.
- Break Even- Rosario/ Cox
- Break Even should be the odds on favorite at post time. Her speed figures are better than this field, and she is classier. She should be the speed, especially breaking from the 2 hole. However, I think that there could be a pace duel early on with her which would hurt her chances. Rosario isn’t the best on early speed horses, as he is better with timing a one run attack at the leaders. She did scratch from a smaller race on Thursday and decided to run here in a Grade 3. That should mean the connections like her chances. Must use but not my top pick.
- Princess Causeway- Landeros/ Wilkes
- I think Princess Causeway is better not that she is a 4yo. However, she seems to be just a really good allowance horse and not so much of a graded stakes horse. The race does set up for her type of run style, but I can’t really trust Landeros to be the strongest down the lane. He’s having arguably one of the worst years of his career but the horse seems to love Landeros. The filly has only won 1 race without Landeros and the other 4 came with him aboard. Maybe they can go 5 for 6 today but a lot would need to happen when it comes to the trip side of the race.
- Bell’s The One- Lanerie/ Pessin
- Bell’s the One is another interesting filly. I like Princess Causeway over her however. I think Bell’s the One is classier than most in here but besides winning the Raven Run she has been average at best. She seems to be a 7 Furlong specialist and this race is 6 Furlongs. Will look elsewhere today
- Unique Factor- Geroux/ Miller
- This filly by The Factor is 30/1 in this spot today. I think she is on the cheaper end but I also think she really wants turf. Turf Sprints to be exact. Peter Miller should never be 30/1 and it’s the first time with the trainer today. Peter Miller tends to always improve horses he gets for the first time by 20 beyers but that’s a conversation for a different day. Sadly however, this isn’t turf. But the sprinting part is still good enough for me to be backing this horse at 30/1. For the connections to ship to CD and have Peter Miller take over campaign with this filly, and then to enter and run in a Grade 3 with Geroux aboard, seems interesting to me.
- Take Charge Angel- Leparoux/ Colebrook
- Take Charge Angel might be the only other horse that can go with the 2 and duel. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Leparoux sent hard and tried to go gate to wire as she seems to be a filly who needs the lead early in order to win. I think she overall is slower and cheaper than this field which makes me not like her. But things could get strange on the front end resulting in wacky results. At the end of the day, I will be looking elsewhere.
- Spiced Perfection- Castellano/ Casse
- Spiced Perfection has seen a lot more than the majority of this field. Only one of three fillies in this field 5 years or older. She used to be trained by Peter Miller but now is in the Mark Casse barn. She has been working very well under Casse and at Churchill. Her only start at Churchill came in a Grade 1 as a 4yo where she finished 4th out of 7. She should be sitting very well in this field but could be shuffled too far back for her liking. Castellano will need to get her comfortable in order for her to run her best.
- Mia Mischief- Santana Jr./ Asmussen
- Mia Mischief is probably the classiest of this group. She loves Churchill and this distance. She can have tactical speed compared to gunning it to the lead. I think she is coming into this graded stakes try in some of her best form. The versatility of her run style and the fact she has beaten way tougher, proves to me that she can win here. TOP PICK
- Lady Suebee- Baze/ Sadler
- I don’t like Lady Suebee at all really in this spot. She is drawn the 9 hole and she seems to need to get the lead early. I just don’t see her getting the lead today and she probably will be wide the whole trip. Will be looking elsewhere.
TOP PICKS:
#8 Mia Mischief
# 5 Unique Factor
#2 Break Even