Here are my thoughts on the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks at Monmouth, good luck!
Race 11 – Monmouth Oaks, Grade 3 (1 1/16 mile, dirt) for three year olds
Tough race of quality fillies set to go for today’s Monmouth Feature. 6 of these faced each other on Independence Day in the Delaware Oaks.
#1 Dream Marie – Comes off a second place finish the Delaware Oaks and back to back bullet works. This horse is in good form and has some class. She is a contender as she can run into a faltering pace if that is to take place.
#2 Princess Cadey– Ran a surprising third in the Delaware Oaks last out while continuing to improve. She has a non graded stakes win under her belt and has ability to run on the pace or sit just off; could get a piece.
#3 Markey Rumor – Facing winners for the first time in graded stakes company is a tall order. She could develop into a nice horse, but would need an improved effort off the maiden win, which is not my favorite angle. She could factor in tri/super wagers.
#4 Hopeful Growth – Disappointed in the Delaware Oaks running 6th at a short price. Before that faired well at three different tracks, but last race showed that competition could have been weak. Comes back to where she got her maiden win first out and she has improved since then. The kind of horse you don’t want to rely on, but can’t leave out.
#5 Piece of My Heart – Was a beaten favorite last out in the Delaware Oaks fading from the pace. Likes to run up front and this group doesn’t have much early speed, which works to her favor on the front end. Off a bullet work she is ready to take another piece of the board.
#6 Lucrezia – This is one of the few who didn’t run in the Delaware Oaks last out, instead she tried the G1 Acorn at Belmont and ran a distant 4th to Gamine. In the race before she lost by three lengths to Swiss Skydiver after a couple of non-graded stakes wins. Delacour is only 10% with graded winners, however this one could be primed off of back to back bullet works and slight class relief.
#7 Comical – Hasn’t won a race since July of last year where she took the G3 Schylerville. Has a ton of class including a near win in a G1 and took a shot at the BC Juvenile. Since moving to Assmussen she hasn’t quite been the same, but has shown some flashes. Another one who falls into the category of: hate to rely on but can’t leave out.
#8 Project Whiskey – Shocked at 38-1 in the Delaware Oaks. I think this horse was underrated last out, but expect a bounce here. She similarly won a non-graded juvenile filly race at Parx to follow it up with a dud and while she could surprise again, I’m more inclined to think the last effort was not her norm.
#9 Eve of War – Todd Pletcher seems to never miss a graded stakes entry, which I think is how it should be for the mega trainers with huge barns. She should try to run early, but has only kept on against allowance company. Nothing in particular stands out about her except the turf to dirt angle (24%) but I think they are just taking a shot with her here.
Tough puzzle of quality fillies which will likely have some nice exacta/tri/super payouts because the field is so even it is hard to leave any off the ticket. #6 Lucrezia is my top selection based on her ability to run on the lead and maintain. She has faced some tough competition and that should have toughened her up for a race like this. #5 Piece of My Heart will be dueling with her and #1 Dream Marie will be looking for them to beat each other up on the front end and run by.
Selections: 6-5-1