Churchill Downs Race 9: The G3 Ack Ack, 1 Mile:
Of all the stakes races across the country today, this one may be the best betting race of them all. I’ll be watching the tote to look for good value here, but I’m trying to beat the 9-5 favorite.
1. Warrior’s Charge: He was most recently put up via DQ to win the Iselin at Monmouth, but I feel he was beaten at the point of the foul. He has been good this year as a four year old, and his best effort may have come in the Met Mile and today’s one turn mile distance. He’s drawn the rail, so he’ll be committed to the front end. He’s got a decent chance, but if he’s at or below the 9-5 morning line, I’ll be looking to try to beat him.
2. Bourbon Calling: He’s exiting a win in the Russell Road at Charles Town, which is a two turn, seven furlong sprint. He ran well sprinting last year, and has been improving in each start this year. He likes this course and should sit a good, midpack trip. The mile will be the question mark, but if he stays around 12-1 or higher, I’d be willing to take that gamble on this improving colt.
3. Proverb: He most recently won an optional claiming/allowance at Ellis, so his recent form isn’t bad. However, from a speed figure perspective, he’s about 8-10 lengths behind the top contenders here. I won’t be using him.
4. American Anthem: This six year old tried the grass for the first time at Kentucky Downs, and he wasn’t interested. His dirt form should make him competitive at this level, but there are others that have a higher ceiling that I prefer.
5. Mr. Money: He had a strong three year old campaign, winning multiple Grade 3 stakes races before falling just short in the Grade 1 PA Derby. Ever since then, he has fallen off form and hasn’t quite been the same horse. I can’t fault those backing him in hopes he’ll make a turn around, but I don’t see evidence of that happening.
6. Pioneer Spirit: He, too, seems to have gone off form in his recent starts. You’d have to go back to January to find his last start that would make him competitive in this spot. However, he is a pace factor and a horse that will push the favorite early and could affect the outcome of this race.
7. Alkhaatam: He was a winner at the track and distance two back on 6/7. He was 21-1 that day and he followed up that performance with a dud in the Stephen Foster. It would be a surprise if he won this race.
8. Ebben: He’s quietly ripped off three straight wins, while rising in class each time. He likes to press the pace, so he should make a good trip for himself. He ran a career top last out, improving by almost 10 Beyer points. I’m definitely getting mixed signals, and 5-1 is a little too short for me. However, he’d be worth a shot if his price floats upwards of his morning line in this wide open contest.
9. Bankit: He sure thrives at the flat mile, and his best career effort came against New York breds in the Commentator three starts ago, at the one turn mile distance. He will be rolling late, so he’ll have to pass most of the field and beat a track that has been hard to close on in the past week or so. Even though he’s only won three times in 22 starts, he’s hit the board in 13 of them. I will be using him underneath in this spot.
10. Thirstforlife: He was a strong second in this race last year, but since then, he has faltered, while running exclusively in optional claiming/allowance races. It’s hard to envision him waking up here, while rising in class.
11. Dinar: He put forth a big effort here three back as an MTO entrant in an off the turf effort. He bounced two back and ran a credible third against lesser at Saratoga. It’s hard to see him running well enough to beat these, though.
12. Home Base: He was dull last out at 7 Furlongs on this course against a softer field. There’s no evidence in his running lines that suggests he wants to go this far. He’s a tough sell for me.
13. Everfast: He’s the x-factor in this race, as he looked really good finishing second to Owendale in the Blame here in May. Since then, he didn’t run well against G1 turf horses, won a 7F allowance at Saratoga, and failed to run his best race in the G1 Forego, albeit, on a very sloppy track. If you draw a line through the turf start and the start in the slop (both against significantly better fields), his running lines aren’t bad. Consistency is an issue, so I’ll need a price, but he’s another with an upset chance here.
My Picks: 2-13-9