TCA
- Sneaking Out- Rispoli/ Hollendorfer
- Sneaking Out should be the favorite here as she is coming out of two Graded stakes victories over on the West Coast. She has improved a lot in her 4yo season. She will be close to the lead and might even be sent hard from the rail. I think if she stays close to the lead she will be powerful here in this spot.
- Dos Vinos- Murrill/ Calhoun
- Dos Vinos is an interesting play here. She hasn’t faced a stakes company yet but she is quick. Mitchell Murrill is aboard again and has been in her two best races. She will need to be comfortable and get a very nice trip in order for her to make the effort to win. I think she can get it but she might be outclassed.
- On Probation- Beschizza/Pessin
- On Probation is a longshot here and has only one win in the last 14 starts going back over the last two years. I think Neil Pessin is in over his head here with her. She is really slow and hasn’t seen a dirt course since March of 2019 and she didn’t run that well in order to be in this field.
- Divine Queen- Borel/ Bradley
- Divine Queen is another horse that seems in over her head. She hates keenland and hasn’t run well this year at all. I am surprised they entered her here but I guess they needed horses to fill up some spots. I don’t see how anyone can make a case for her today.
- Palace Avenger- Saez/ Ward
- Palace Avenger is another interesting filly here. She is the only 3yo in here and that is a key angle in here as she is the youngest and probably freshest. She seems to be the controlling speed here early on and Saez is aggressive. I think she can be a real contender in this field and I will be using her on all tickets.
- Inthemidstofbiz- Garcia/ Contreras
- Inthemidstofbiz is another interesting filly in this field. Martin Garcia gets the mount and she seems to like to go to the lead early or sit right off. Contreras is a good mid level trainer and has some success in stakes. I think this race is definitely a huge step up in class but I think she can be a contender here if she gets the race to shape up in her favor.
- Lady’s Island- Gaffalione/ Gargan
- Lady’s Island is super consistent. She is 50% winner lifetime in 32 starts and went 8 for 9 last year. She has seen a lot of sneaky and or “cheating” trainers and gets Gargan today. Gaffalione gets the mount today and he hasn’t ridden her recently if ever. She will be the controlling speed early as she is the quickest out of the gate. Do I think she will hold the pace all the way, probably. However I think she can be beat but not easily.
TOP PICKS:
#1 Sneaking Out
#7 Lady’s Island
#5 Palace Avenger
Woodford
- Extravagant Kid- Gaffalione/ Walsh
- Extravagant Kid is a very good and well respected veteran in this division. Gaffalione has probably brought out the best in this horse. Lately he has been running the same race over and over and either getting the set up or fading. He can sit very close to the lead or close. I think she has a legitimate shot after her race in the Turf Sprint at CD back on Sept 4th. She should be in great condition for today and I expect a solid effort.
- Fast Boat- Beschizza/Sharp
- Fast Boat is a very fast horse when closing into the right trip. Beschizza is a good rider when he tries and this horse he knows pretty well. Him and Sharp link up pretty well at 14% but out of 359 total starts in the last 365 days. I think he will need a strong pace to run down as he is a mid pack type of runner. The layoff worries me a little but it isn’t the longest of layoffs. I will be using him underneath.
- Real News- Rosario/ Stall
- Real News is going to be closer to the lead than some in here. I think he is slower than most here which is an issue but he gets Rosario which rode him back in April of last year in a starter stake. That race would still not be enough here but luckily that was over a year ago. Rosario needs to be aggressive and let this horse get comfortable early at the same time in order to win. I don’t know if he will have enough in the tank though. Will look elsewhere.
- Just Might- Hernandez/ Lowell
- Just Might is another pace horse early on, and should be the one who controls the early fractions. I think he is outclassed here and definitely needs the lead in order to win. He has been beaten by multiple horses in his field and I think, today is another day.
- Chaos Theory- Rispoli/ Sadler
- Rispoli has switched his tack to the state of Kentucky for the Breeders Cup meet. This is a key angle for me as I have been following him over on the West Coast this year and he has been dominant on the turf. This is a horse he rode on the West Coast and he rode this horse to a win in the Green Flash. If he can return to that race, he will win this race. I think he has a legitimate shot in this field here with some pace lined up. Rispoli can outride anyone in here so I like my chances with Chaos Theory on top.
- Chaps- Lanerie/ Kenneally
- Chaps is a solid horse but not quite in this ranking yet. He ran a solid race in the Turf Sprint on Sept. 4th. But nothing to keep my eye out for. I think he can finish 4th in here which is good for superfecta betters. He would need a complete pace meltdown in order for him to win.
- Win Lion Win- Bridgmohan/ Ramsay-Banks
- Win Lion Win is in way over his head here today. I think they are taking a huge shot here with this gelding. However, he really likes the turf and he comes back to it today. Doubt he has enough.
- Leinster- Saez/ Arnold
- Leinster is a very classy horse and a talented one I might add. Luis Saez gets the mount as Gaffalione chose Extravagant Kid over this one it seems. Leinster loves Keenland and also is coming out of the Shakertown which he won. Extravagant Kid has beaten him before but it was in a cheaper race. I think Leinster has a real shot here and is my 2nd choice.
- Citrus Burst- Talamo/ Engler
- Citrus Burst should be dead last in this field. He is so much slower than the field in here and I will be shocked if he actually runs. Joe Talamo picks up the mount but I don’t see him improving her by 20 beyer points.
TOP PICKS:
#5 Chaos Theory
#8 Leinster
#1 Extravagant Kid