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There are four graded stakes on the card, including the last Grade 1 stakes in New York of 2020. The Remsen and the Demoiselle offer the first chance in America for two year olds to have a graded stakes opportunity at 9 Furlongs. The Go For Wand and The Cigar Mile are always strong races in their divisions. The Cigar Mile has always been run at the one turn mile at Aqueduct, while the Go For Wand, which has been moved around on the NYRA schedule over the years, will also be run at the flat mile. Weather certainly could be a factor in these races today as the forecast at the moment is not encouraging, as heavy rains and high winds are predicted on Saturday. 

Aqueduct Race 4: The Grade 2 Remsen, 2yo, 1 Mile and 1/8:

1. Pickin’ Time: The winner of the Nashua last out has pretty solid running lines, with the exception of the Saratoga Special, which proved to be a fairly deep race. He continues to improve steadily and definitely took advantage of the pace setup, when the front runners went pretty quick early. With only four others in here, he figures to sit a good trip. His sire, Cigar Mile and Travers winner, Stay Thirsty, should give him the pedigree to handle the distance.  

2. Known Agenda: He’s one of two making their stakes debut in this Grade 2 spot. He’s a track and distance winner, which should be an advantage as no one else has gone this far before. He pretty much paired his Beyers in his first two starts, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward here. He was impressive that day, breaking his maiden, while going wide on the first turn. Note that the horse who beat him on debut, Highly Motivated, is already a stakes winner, having won the Nyquist on the Breeder’s Cup undercard, earning a high 90’s Beyer figure. It’s probably a good idea to put a ring around that race (Bel 9/27, Race 7) as a key race. I don’t love him as the favorite, but he needs to be on the horizontal wagers.

3. Brooklyn Strong: This two year old, New York bred, gelded son of Wicked Strong has already had a huge ROI as he cost a mere $5,000 at the OBS April sale in 2020. He’s improved in all three starts, winning the Sleepy Hollow amongst New York breds last out. Jose Ortiz opts to ride Ten For Ten, but picking up the red hot Joel Rosario, is not a bad deal. He wouldn’t be a surprise, but I think he’s up against three horses that are superior to any horse he has defeated in the past.

4. Erawan: I can’t blame Jose Corrales shipping this Maryland based colt north to take a swing here amidst a small field. His two races have been visually strong, as he closed a ton of ground to be a close up fourth in allowance company last out. I think he’ll be okay going long, but his speed figures are pretty light and he’d have to take a sizeable leap forward to beat these foes.

5. Ten For Ten: He tries two turns for the first time after doing the dirty work on the front end last out in the one turn Nashua, before fading to second. I think the pace scenario is much different, as he appears to be the lone speed threat on the front end. He was beaten by over two lengths by Pickin’ Time last out, and he certainly could turn the tables with an easier trip today. While  I wouldn’t be shocked to see him wire this group, I suspect the other two horses might be slightly better at the moment.

My Picks: 1-2-5

Aqueduct 12/5/2020 Race 6: The Grade 3 Go For Wand, F/M, 1 Mile 

The morning line odds-maker believes this race sets up as a match race between Nonna Madeline and Sharp Starr, but the weather conditions could complicate things a bit, and I’m thinking one of the two is vulnerable.

1. Nonna Madeline: She is the class of this field, consistently running faster than most of these have shown they are capable of to this point. The only poor effort in her recent form line is the Shuvee, and that effort would likely still win this race on most days. She’s never been on a sloppy track, so that is my only hesitation with her here. She is definitely the one they will have to beat.

2. Portal Creek: She has won three of her last four starts over at Parx, facing lesser foes than she’ll see today. She handled the two turn mile just fine last time out, and should be fine traveling the same distance, going only one turn. She has struggled in her last two starts on off tracks, but Guerrero has really gotten her to use her early speed effectively of late. That and having a very good gate jockey like Carmouche aboard, should give her a fighting chance to carry her early speed a long way here. She’s the most likely one to upset the favorites.

3. Sharp Starr: I’m not sure what to make of her last race, where she decimated New York breds by 15 lengths, earning a monstrous 101 Beyer figure. She is a three year old filly, so big improvements are possible, but she made a massive leap last out and has firmly wandered into bounce territory. She has been very good in her two races at one turn miles, but she offers little to no value. If you draw a line through her last race, she’s probably 4^th choice at best in this field, and her morning line is at 3-2. If she duplicates her last, she wins by open lengths again, but I’m going to take a firm stand against her.

4. Overheated: She’s typically better on turf than on dirt, running all of career best figures on the grass. Her dirt form really doesn’t stack up at all with this group. I’ll pass on her today.

5. Stand For The Flag: She hasn’t been seen at the track since February. After the Servis indictment, she was moved to the barn of Rob Atras, who has her working well enough for her return. Her best career race came in the slop, which, as a daughter of Super Saver, shouldn’t come as a surprise. The underlying question with horses that use to be in the Servis and Navarro barns is; were any of their big efforts affected by performance enhancers? Her one career try in graded stakes company was a dud, but that was a two turn race, and she’s clearly better at one turn. I’m getting mixed signals, but if she floats above her 8-1 morning line, I’d be willing to take a chance.

6. Graceful Princess: She was bred to be a champion, as her sire is Tapit and her dam is Havre De Grace. She appeared to be headed to better things after her first two starts, but her career has stalled a bit, as she’s still eligible for NW2X company. Perhaps she’ll like the off track and perhaps she’ll improve off her last effort, where she was beaten double digits by Nonna Madeline (who was 3^rd). However, her recent form suggests that graded stakes company might not be in the cards for her.

My Picks: 1-2-5

Aqueduct Race 9: The Grade 2 Demoiselle, 2yoF, 1 Mile and 1/8:

Several well-bred fillies try to get the nine furlong distance for the first time. There’s only one stakes winner in this group, and that’s Malathaat, who could be a potential star in the making. 

1. Malathaat: Shadwell paid over 1 million dollars for this filly, and she’s acted the part on the track thus far, breaking her maiden at first asking and then following that up with a smashing win in the Tempted Stakes. She’s one three fillies in this race by Curlin, and her dam, Dreaming Of Julia, won the Gulfstream Park Oaks at this distance by 21 lengths in 2013. I don’t think the slop will bother her and I don’t see anyone in this field that is as good as she is at the moment.

2. Traffic Lane: She’s one of three fillies that has tried two turn racing before, and she won that race, which came on the grass. She is getting better, but this is a steep rise in class that goes along with switching back to dirt.

3. Millefeuille: She’s one of a few that will be in the mix for second choice in the wagering in this race. As a result, there could value in some of the horses underneath. She’s a Juddmonte homebred, by Curlin, who improved upon a decent debut in her second career start. She should have no problem transitioning to longer races.

4. Malibu Curl: She took a nice step forward while stretching out to seven furlongs and breaking her maiden during closing weekend at Saratoga. She’s been away since, which isn’t ideal, as she returns to face some fillies in very good form. Albertrani’s horses usually need a race off their layoff before they hit peak form. I’ll pass on her today.

5. Dollar Mountain: She broke her maiden in the slop at Belmont in an off the turf maiden special weight. Being sired by Upstart, it’s no surprise she took to the slop, but she only beat three other horses that day, and this is a massive rise in class for her off that effort. I’d upgrade her a bit if the weather is as advertised. 

6. Café Society: She’s by Empire Maker out of a Tapit mare, so the distance won’t be the issue for her. She was well backed in the Tempted last out, but finished ten lengths behind Malathaat that day. Both horses figure to improve at two turns, and this one also has a tougher post than her rival. I’m just not sure I see her making up that much ground in four weeks. 

7. Caramocha: She was sent off at 99-1 in her debut, given no chance, and she won for fun while racing greenly in the stretch against New York breds. 6 to 9 Furlongs is a big leap, but she does have the pedigree to get the distance. She obviously has some talent, and gets an upgrade at jockey to Dylan Davis, who rides this track very well. She’s a bit interesting underneath here.

8. Celestial Cheetah: From a pedigree standpoint, she’d probably be the least likely to get this distance. She is the only two turn dirt winner in the field though, breaking her maiden against a soft maiden special weight field at Delaware Park last time out. She’s been competitive in all three starts, but hasn’t faced anywhere near the level of competition she’s trying today. 

My Picks: 1-3-7

Aqueduct 12/5/2020, Race 10: The Grade 1 Cigar Mile, 1 Mile:

This isn’t the deepest Cigar Mile, and Performer heads what could be a very chalky stakes day. He is the one to beat, but he’s no guarantee as there are some tough customers in this field that love racing at the Big A!

1. Performer: This lightly raced four year old has won five straight races after finishing third in his debut here two years ago. He had a perfect three year old campaign that ended with a win the Discovery here last year. He returned after almost a full year away to beat optional claiming/allowance foes in the mud at Belmont at this distance. Shug has brought this horse along nicely, and he certainly will be fit enough for this race if he’s good enough. I’ll definitely use him, but I’m looking to beat him on top. 

2. Mind Control: His four year old campaign started off great, winning two Grade 1 sprints on this course in impressive fashion. His summer and fall campaign would have to be characterized as disappointing, as four of his last five efforts were simply not good. His two races on sloppy courses this year were awful, and that is most likely what he’ll be up against again today. I’ll pass on him, despite his excellent record on this track.

3. Snapper Sinclair: This well-traveled five year old returns to New York for the first time since breaking his maiden at Saratoga on the grass in 2017. He’s been in good form on the grass in Kentucky in his last two starts. He’s run well on wet tracks in the past, and he’s capable of running big races on the dirt. He’s a threat underneath at a decent number.

4. Firenze Fire: This former grade 1 winner has been having a solid campaign this year, winning the True North and the Vosburgh, and most recently, hitting the board in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Despite sticking primarily to sprints over the last few years, his best career speed figure came at this one turn mile distance in the Dwyer back in 2018. The weather is my main concern, as much like Mind Control, he didn’t run a step in the super sloppy courses he caught for the Carter and the Forego. I think others will offer more value today.

5. Mr. Buff:  He had three straight triple digit Beyer victories on this course last year, including a 20 length win against New York breds in the Haynesfield back in February. He wasn’t as effective at Belmont or Saratoga, especially while facing open company. He looked to rebound and run a top quality race in the Empire Classic last time out, so I think we can assume he’s getting back into his better form as he’s returning to his favorite track. He has won in the mud here and his front running style should play well in adverse conditions. I think today is the day this gritty gelding breaks through with open graded stakes company.

6. King Guillermo: He’s definitely the X-factor in this race, as this guy could be any kind. He clearly runs very well off the layoff as he proved when winning the Tampa Bay Derby by open lengths in March, off a four month layoff. He fought the good fight against Nadal in the Arkansas Derby, but could only muster up second best that day. He was training up to the Derby in September before a minor injury sidetracked him. He’s looked good in Florida preparing for this race, but I do worry a bit about culture shock from Florida if he has to run in wet, 40 degree conditions. This is also a tricky spot to face older foes for the first time. He has a great story that anyone can root for, but parimutually speaking, I’m trying to beat him.

7. Majestic Dunhill: He was a dull 7^th last weekend in the Fall Highweight, in which he may have bounced off a strong effort two back in the Bold Ruler. He’s been running mostly in seven furlong contests, and has never gone this far in a race in his career. He didn’t run well in the sea of slop in Forego, but he did handle the mud at Belmont two back. He’s not impossible, but I won’t be using him. 

8. True Timber: This guy usually waits for this race to run his best race of the year. He was a respectable third last year behind Maximum Security and Spun To Run, and he almost pulled off the shocker two years ago at 31-1 when Patternrecognition barely held him off late. He quietly ran a strong race in the Lafayette last time out, suggesting that he’s rounding back into form to run well here again. I think he’s a classy longshot at a price here. 

9. Bon Raison: He was not in good form here last year, as he went 0-4 during the winter meets. Every now and then, he’ll show up and run a big effort at a price, but even his best effort probably doesn’t get the job done here.

My Picks: 5-1-8