The Raven Run
- Never Forget- Albarado/Oliver
- Never Forget has only one win over 8 starts, 7 which were maiden special weight company. She did finish 3rd in the 8 Belles but it was not anything special. She struggled to beat maidens for 6 straight tries, and then wins and jumps up to a Grade 2??? I don’t like that move ever and I don’t like the entry in this race either. She has ability but I just don’t see her as a graded stakes horse.
- Four Graces- Leparoux/ Wilkes
- Four Graces only beat the #1 Never Forget by a length last time out in the Eight Belles but is 5/2 compared to 20/1 in Never Forget. Yes, she is a lot better of a filly and she also was coming into the 8 Belles off of a layoff which means she might have needed a race in preparation for this race. She is by far a 7F specialist and today is another perfect set up for her. I think she will be tough to beat in her but she is probably not the most likely winner here.
- Secondary Market- Gaffalione/ Brown
- Secondary Market seems to be slightly out of her level. I don’t think she is in this tier and she would benefit in smaller stakes or allowance races. Gaffalione rides today for Chad Brown and that makes sense to me since Chad uses Gaffalione sometimes in New York. However, I don’t think the rider can get her home in time for first today.
- Finite- Santana Jr./ Asmussen
- Finite benefits from longer usually but I have a feeling 7F will actually bring the best out of her. She has no liking for the turf even if she broke her maiden on the turf at Kentucky Downs. I think she runs her best around the mile distance but usually looks all out coming to the wire in my opinion, so I think the slight cut back will be perfect. She will be used on all tickets for me.
- Venetian Harbor- Franco/ Batlas
- Venetian Harbor is by far the most talented in here on paper. The three fillies she lost to in the last three starts were, Gamine, Speech, and Swiss Skydiver. All three of those are Graded stakes placed horses. One of which (Swiss Skydiver), just won the Preakness, a triple crown event against all boys. If it means anything, this field has no Gamines or Swiss Skydivers in it so Venetian Harbor could finally romp in a Graded stakes field.
- Reagan’s Edge- Geroux/ DeVaux
- Reagan’s Edge seems to be a hanger in my eyes. I think she has a ton of talent but I think she needs longer than 7F. She would need a pace meltdown as well as Isee her morse as closer than a presser. I truthfully am not a fan of her in this spot.
- Tonalist’s Shape- Bejarano/ Joseph Jr.
- Tonalist’s Shape was my top choice in the CT Oaks last time out but she didn’t like the bull ring of Charles Town which is expected for shippers. However, she did win the Forward Gal at Gulfstream back in February and that was at 7F like today. I think if she can manage to go back to that race, she has a shot in here to upset.
- Fair Maiden- Lanerie/ Harty
- Fair Maiden is more of a turf horse and might have just caught a very bland field in the previous start at Churchill. I think it is a big step up for her today and they will probably be in for a rude awakening. I wouldn’t be surprised if she just finished up the track and came back on turf next time out.
- Grand Cru Classe- Garcia/ Mott
- Bill Mott sends out Grand Cru Classe who is new on the scene and is undefeated in 3 starts coming into today. She hasn’t beaten much and today is a huge step up but Bill wouldn’t put his horses in spots they cannot perform in. She seems capable and this could be a spot for her to finally show her full self. I will be using her on deeper tickets but not on the main ones.
- Secret Keeper- Hernandez Jr./ Sise Jr.
- I am not a huge fan of Secret Keeper but she does ship in from the West Coast today. She has been training at San Luis Rey before shipping to Kentucky and her workouts have been nice. She seems to be very quick early but I don’t think the early turn of foot is enough to get the job done today and I will be looking elsewhere.
TOP PICKS:
#4 Finite
#5 Venetian Harbor
#2 Four Graces