This larger field of 2yo fillies get a big test today. Tons of speed and some closers to fill out a field of 12 but at least one will be scratched as #8 I Dare You ran two days ago. I like 4 horses and I have a longshot play below. Good Luck to all!
- Fiftyshays Ofgreen- John Velazquez- John Servis
Fiftyshays Ofgreen is one of the hardest names to type out, but she seems to be a nice filly for John Servis and definitely the best of his two entries. John Velazquez hops aboard for the first time which is huge. She seems to be rounding into form but also seems to be on the cheaper end when it comes to this field. She has yet to figure out her runstyle which one race dueling on the turf and two mid pack even races with finally, one race race where she came off the pace and won. Maybe the confidence will be there with the win under her belt and the added distance but I will be looking elsewhere.
- Maedean- Luis Saez- Mark Hennig
Maedean has a win over the track in a stakes race last time out. She is looking for her third straight win. She ran her best race last time out but it wasn’t her best beyer which she earned in the breaking of her maiden. She will be closing late and Saez should be able to get her to roll late as well. I like her today in this spot will be using in all wagers.
- Glass Ceiling- Eric Cancel- Danny Gargan
This Danny Gargan filly is in way over her head. She was claimed last time out and is immediately put in a Grade 2 from a Maiden 40K at Keenland. Yes, this is a super steep jump in class but it is also interesting. Gargan is clicking at a 38% first off the claim and 25% 31-60 days away. He is also 31% when stretching horses out to a route. All of these numbers put this horse in a way better spot then bases strictly off of form. However, I don’t think she will win, I think she will definitely improve and with this trainers numbers on this angle I think she can hit the board or the super.
- Miss Marissa- Dylan Davis- James T Ryerson
Miss Marissa will be one of the pace horses early on. She ran a pretty horrid rae in the Fritzette which was her first stake race and first race against winners. The move was risky and it didn’t amount to the right outcome. Now she drops in two a slightly lower class level but not by much. I will have to pass today on this filly.
- Alandra- Joel Rosario- Claude McGuaghey III
Joel Rosario closed with this filly last time out after she won in debut going gate to wire. She didn’t get the lead because of a smothered start last time out and she still closed like a rocket to finish 3rd. If she doesn’t get a bothered start she might win that race. Rosario can sit with her now that he knows she has late kick. If she is anywhere close to the pace today it might be her race to lose.
- Critical Value- Irad Ortiz Jr.- Jeremiah Englehart
Irad Ortiz gets the mount instead of Junior Alvarado today which is always a plus for me. She is training lights out since coming to Aqueduct. She should be sitting off the pace, and she also is facing non-restricted horses for the first time. Irad getting aboard is key here. Ten Strike puts their horses in the right spot always no matter what, so I like this horse today as well.
- Jara- Joe Bravo- John Servis
Jara is a horse that is technically a winner by Disqualification. She has been running at Laurel and is stepping up hugely today. I don’t like the step up in class but these are 2yo fillies and anything can happen. I just don’t think today is the day.
- I Dare U- Manuel Franco- George Weaver( SCR)
- Blame Debbie- Javier Castellano- Graham Motion
Blame Debbie is another horse coming into this race out of a Maiden victory. Graham Motion is good with 2yos but not great. Javier gets aboard this filly and she seems to like to run fast early. However, I think she will be outclassed today. Have to look elsewhere today.
- Daphne Moon- Jose Ortiz- Jeremiah Englehart
Daphne Moon is a filly out of Cairo Prince for Englehart and Jose Ortiz gets back aboard after Irad rode her last time out. Jose won on this filly at Saratoga and it was impressive. She didn’t improve last time out in the Frizette but that was a major step up in class after two months on the shelf. Now another two months on the shelf she comes in today hopefully ready to go. However, I think she has bigger issues than just layoffs and I will look to horse improving which I don’t see her doing today.
- Water White- Leonel Reyes- Rudy Rodriguez
Water White gets blinkers off today which Rudy Rodriguez is only hitting at 9%. Leonel Reyes gets the mount and that is also a downgrade for me. Not because Reyes is a bad jockey, he is just not Franco or Ortiz brother level. He should be close to the lead early, but I think with blinkers off he will be a little even and green.
- Lake Avenue- Junior Alvarado- William Mott
Lake Avenue is the other early pace horse from the far outside. I think she has the possibility to bounce off of her last effort in which she won by over 12 lengths in a maiden victory. Usually when I see a horse especially a 2yo run a race like that in which she dominates and draws off by a dozen lengths, I stay away from them. Today however, I think she can produce a performance like that again with the way she is training coming into this race. The outside post is a minor flaw but the outside posts have been winning on the dirt all week at Aqueduct so maybe today is the same.
TOP PICKS-
#5 Alandra
#6 Critical Value
#2 Maedean
#12 Lake Avenue