The Amsterdam
- Basin- Ortiz/ Pletcher
- Basin usually was in the Steve Asmussen barn but for some odd reason he is now moved to the Todd Pletcher barn. I actually think the move is very positive. Jose Ortiz gets the mount again today after not riding the colt since his 2yo start in the Hopeful last summer. Since that win in the Hopeful he has yet to see the winners circle again. I think he is better as a sprinter so the cut back is ideal. I think he has a very legitimate shot here today with his mid pack runstyle ability.
- Yaupon- Rosario/ Asmussen
- Yaupon is an undefeated upstart sprinter with only two races under his belt. Asmussen sent this one to Saratoga and got a very good prep back in July. It might have not been a prep at the time but it turned into one. Rosario keeps the mount and he will look to be a gate to wire winner here today. However, Long Weekend and Premier Star will be sending early as well and I don’t know if Yaupon can rate and win. This is his biggest test and I don’t know if he is the real deal yet. Must use.
- Long Weekend- Saez/ Amoss
- Long Weekend is another early speed horse in this field. However, unlike Yaupon, Long Weekend has faced this type of competition before. Saez has been one of the hottest jockeys coming into today and gets the mount today when Jose Ortiz chose the Basin. I think his early runstyle is beneficial today but he seems to be a nead the lead type of horse. I don’t think he will get the lead by himself today and that might be his downfall.
- Premier Star- Ortiz Jr./ Trombetta
- Premier Star is a very interesting horse. First question is whether or not Irad rides today as he has missed a few days this week. I think the step up in class is going to be the deciding factor. I don’t know if he is good enough to beat this field but he can definitely get the right set up if Irad wants to. I think he is a good underneath horse but I’ll pass on the win probability.
- Wondrwherecraigis- Castellano/ Russell
- This gelding is the horse I am concerned about the most. He has run well at Laurel but got DQ’d at Belmont in his first start outside of Maryland. He can definitely get the right set up today here and that is where Javier comes in to play. I think Javier has been very average in these spots all summer and I don’t trust him today. Will be looking elsewhere.
- Liam’s Pride- Davis/ O’ Niell
- Liam’s Pride is the only horse on here where I think he has no shot whatsoever. Blinkers come off for this well raced 3yo. His declining speed figures are worrisome to me and Dylan Davis isn’t anything special when it comes to this group of riders. I am not sure if he will bring his A game today or that it matters. I will be looking elsewhere.
TOP PICKS:
#1 Basin
#2 Yaupon
#4 Premier Star