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Del Mar, 11/27/2020, Race 7: The Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup, 1 Mile and 1/2, Turf:

The Fall Turf Festival drew several deep and large fields this year, making for a great closing weekend at Del Mar. The distance test drew an overflow field of 14 (12 and 2 AEs). Arklow is the morning line favorite, shipping west after his 6^th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf three weeks ago.

1. North County Guy: He’s a consistent gelding who was a comfortable winner against OC/NW2X foes last month at Santa Anita. He was three lengths behind Red King (3) and United in a slower renewal the Del Mar Handicap in August. With his rail draw and tactical early foot, I imagine he’ll be a part of the early pace, but I think he’ll be passed by a handful of these in the stretch. 

2. Oscar Dominguez: He was an 11-1 upset winner of this race last year, defeating United, who has stamped himself as the top tier horse in California in this division. He’s been pace compromised in his last four starts, and as a result, he hasn’t been able to show off his late kick. There is a chance that the early pace could be a little livelier today, especially if his stablemate Fivestar Lynch (14) draws in. Irad Ortiz taking this mount certainly doesn’t hurt his chances. I think a win might be a stretch, but he could add value underneath.

3. Red King: He had his three race win streak snapped when he jumped up in class to compete in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He’s been in his best career form in his last few races. He was about 6 lengths behind Arklow (5) last out, and I’m not sure after such a demanding race last time, he’s going to be capable of making that up. Despite several good efforts on his form line, he’s one I’m trying to beat 

4. Say The Word: This is the most interesting horse in this race in my opinion. He showed a lot of promise in 2019, but fell into a funk after duller some synthetic efforts and a miserable winter in New Orleans. He returned to the Gail Cox barn and stretched out a bit at Saratoga. He rewarded his connections with a smashing win at 51-1. He followed that performance up with strong efforts in the Singspiel and Northern Dancer at Woodbine, winning his first Grade 1 in the latter at this distance. He’s a part of the Sam-Son dispersal, so now he moves to the Phil D’Amato barn, and Flavien Prat gets the call. He’s shown an affinity for firm courses, so I think he’ll do just fine here. I think he’s very dangerous today.

5. Arklow: Brad Cox brings his hard trying six year old back to California, suggesting he came out of his 6^th place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Turf in good order. He started this year, looking like he may have lost a step, after four consecutive sub triple digit Beyer races. However, he’s returned to his top form in his last two starts. He only has two wins in the last two years though, so it’s hard to feel comfortable using him on top. I’m going to try to beat him, but I think you have to cover him in the multi-race bets.

6. Gregorian Chant: He’s been steadily improving in his four year old campaign, finishing third with restricted stakes company last out, traveling at a flat mile. His pedigree is a bit of an unknown to me, but going much further against much better horses isn’t usually a recipe for success.

7. Acclimate: He’s been on the shelf since last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf, where he wilted late after doing most of the heavy lifting on the front end. His presence here should ensure an honest tempo for the distance, but I’d have to believe he’ll need this start. 

8. Laccario: He moves into the Graham Motion barn after a strong North American debut in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic last month. He skipped the Breeders’ Cup in favor of this spot, which will be his third race off a layoff. He’s a Group 1 winner at this distance in Germany and should be very tough to beat in here if he takes a liking to the Southern California lawn. 

9. Ward ‘n Jerry: He was the winner of the San Luis Rey in March, but he faced a pretty soft group for the Grade 3 race that day. He’s faltered in his three races since, including an uninspiring 8^th in the Del Mar Handicap here in his last start. He’s been freshened up a bit, but even if he fires his best effort, I’m not sure that’s enough to get the job done with these. 

10. Proud Pedro: This four year old cleared the NW2X condition here in July, and ran two decent fourth place tries in the Del Mar Handicap and the John Henry. He seems to be one that might appreciate the added distance, as he’s shown that he can fire home in 11 Furlong contests. He’s an interesting longshot with some upside here.

11. Marckie’s Water: He made his first start in 14 months last month at Santa Anita and ran a very dull 8^th that day while facing optional claiming/allowance types. He has some back class as he won the Whittingham last year and was second in the Eddie Read. This is a deeper field though than many of those races last year and he has to prove he’s ready to be competitive again with graded stakes foes before I can endorse him at any price. 

12. Another Mystery: Here’s another four year old that could be developing into a player in this division in Southern California. He’s made serious growth since moving to the McCarthy barn, outrunning his long odds in both the Del Mar Handicap and the John Henry. Prior to moving to the west coast, his two best races in his form cycle were at this 12 Furlong distance. He’s very interesting to me.

13. Tartini: He’s the first of two AE’s and he’s making his start of Glatt if he goes. He’s never had a Beyer in the 90’s, which shows he’s grossly overmatched with these.

14. Fivestar Lynch: He also doesn’t merit much chance, but if he does draw in, he’s likely to add to the pace scenario, which could set things up for some of the closers in here.

My Picks: 8-4-12-10

Churchill Downs, 11/27/2020, Race 10: The Grade 1 Clark, 1 Mile and 1/8

A large and talented field has assembled for this year’s running of the Clark. 13 of the 14 in the body of the field are in search of their first Grade 1 win, with Code of Honor, being the only one who has accomplished that feat thus far. This will be no cakewalk for him though, despite being installed at the morning line favorite.

1. Crafty Daddy: He started his career more focused on turf racing, however, McPeek discovered that he is capable on both surfaces when he won the Opening Verse stakes here in September (rained off the turf). He was dull in the Fayette, but rebounded nicely to beat Optional Claiming/Allowance horses last out. He clearly likes this track here, but this is a big ask for this horse, who has never won a graded stakes race of any kind.

2. Title Ready: He was the token longshot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and pretty much ran the same race he’s be running. At five years old, he’s been in decent form, but I don’t see much upside to him here at this level.

3. Code of Honor: After winning the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup last year, I’d have to think his 2020 campaign has been a bit of a disappointment. He skipped the Breeders’ Cup this year in favor of this spot. His one trip here in the Derby last year was an eventful one, but he ran well in the slop that day. With the big crowded field, and the draw near the rail, he is going to have to navigate traffic, which casts enough doubt for me to try to beat him here.

4. Multiplier: He ran his best race of his career earlier this year, almost pulling off the shocker at 33-1 in the Big Cap in March. You have to go back to May of 2018 to find his last win and you have to go back to the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne in 2017 to find his last win on the dirt. His last two races indicate he might be heading off form.

5. Aurelius Maximus: He’s lightly raced, but he enters this spot at the horse with the most upside in the field. He was really good when just got nipped at the wire in the Fayette last out. He’s now third off a layoff and could be sitting on a career top effort this afternoon. He has some early foot, but doesn’t need the lead. If he gets away cleanly in here, he has a chance to sit the best trip in the race. I’ll take him on top and hope for anywhere around his 8-1 morning line. 

6. Plus Que Parfait: I thought he had a sneaky chance to win the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance marathon race on Breeders’ Cup Friday, but he tired and faded in the final few furlongs. His other races just aren’t fast enough to be competitive at this level.

7. Mr. Freeze: I just can’t quite figure this guy out. He had a strong stretch of races he put together last year, winning the Ack Ack and Gulfstream Mile, and hitting the board in the Fayette, Clark, and Pegasus World Cup. His last five races though, he’s been flat. He was good enough to win the Fayette, but he’s had no visible excuses for subpar tries in the Alysheba, Met Mile, or the BC Dirt Mile. I’m not crazy about him wheeling back in three weeks off his last try. He certainly can win, but I’m against him.

8. Bodexpress: When he runs at Gulfstream Park West, he looks like a completely different animal than when he’s racing anywhere else. He’s 3-4 in his career there, and 0-12 everywhere else. Aurelius Maximus beat him on this oval two starts ago. He’ll take some money after running the big Beyer last out, but he’s going to have to prove he can take his show on the road before I’ll endorse him. 

9. Owendale: He keeps running good races, but never great races. He looked poised to have a breakout year when he looked so visually impressive beating a good group of horses in the Blame here back in May. Then he disappointed in the Stephen Foster, was second to By My Standards in the Alysheba, was a beaten favorite in the Pimlico Special, and came up short (after a terrible draw) in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Until he gets that breakout win, he’s going to continue to be more of a minor award type at this level.

10. Bourbon Calling: He’s been sharp in his last three starts, including a second in the Ack Ack two starts back. However, he takes a big step up in class and hasn’t shown that he can compete at this level of competition. 

11. Coastal Defense: This $800,000 son of Curlin, didn’t make it to the races until this February as a four year old. Once he left Florida and came to Kentucky, he started to steadily improve.  He had a strong win two back to clear the NW1X condition here and followed that up with a competitive 4^th place in the Fayette. He too, has some upside and could have another forward move in him. If he goes off near 20-1, that seems like decent value to me.

12. By My Standards: Last year’s Louisiana Derby winner has had a very successful four year old campaign winning three grade two races (Alysheba, New Orleans, Oaklawn), and second in the Stephen Foster and the Whitney. Perhaps the 10 Furlongs was outside his range when taking on a very deep Breeders’ Cup Classic field last out. He faded to 8^th that day, but a repeat of his previous four efforts, would likely put him right there in this spot. 

13. Phantom Currency: His only prior try in stakes company came on the grass at Ellis this past August, and it didn’t go well. He’s never recorded a Beyer above 85 on the dirt, which put him near the back of this field today.

14. Silver Prospector: We usually see a few three year olds in this race, but this guy is the only one this year. He was going well this winter at Oaklawn in the three year old series before going off form in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby. He returned with a strong effort to clear the NW3X condition last out at the end of October. I’d like his chances more if he didn’t draw such an awful post for a race where he’s taking a big jump up in class.

15. In Love: If this Brazilian bred does draw in, he’s definitely an unknown commodity. His two North American turf races have been solid, while facing lesser competition. He broke his maiden on the main track in Argentina, but that doesn’t offer much insight here. The best I can see for class lines is that at a longer distance, he was soundly defeated by Miniraque, who nearly upset the Throughbred Aftercare Alliance field at 27-1. Prior to that, he (Miniraque) ran two other dull races at competition levels similar to this.

My Picks: 5-12-3-11