Saratoga 8/1/2020 – Race 10- The Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens, 7 Furlongs
Interesting race here as No Parole looks to remain undefeated at one turn, but he’s facing the deepest field he’s seen to date. There are a lot of interesting challengers here that could offer value in what is, to me, the best betting race of all the stakes races on the card today.
1. Hopeful Treasure: He was 4th in the Gold Fever in the slop on closing week at Belmont in his most recent try. His other dirt races are decent, but not really Grade 1 caliber. He feels like he’s in over his head in this race.
2. Eight Rings: He’s one of two Grade 1 winners in the field, winning the American Pharoah last fall at Santa Anita by open lengths. His debut was sparkling, so we know he can fire fresh. His only start this year at Oaklawn was disappointing though, and he has a tough draw, being on the inside of several other speed horses. He hasn’t shown the ability to rate, and I don’t think he can go with some of these early. He’s a pass for me.
3. Sonneman: This one was bred to be a good one, as his owners paid $375,000 for him. I can forigive his dull effort in the Easy Goer match race at Belmont. Celtic Striker had a tactical advantage, and once he opened up, this guy threw in the towel. He’s definitely better than his last, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs a career best figure, but I don’t see him being good enough to beat many of these right now.
4. Echo Town: He was bumped a bit at the start and the expected speed duel with No Parole never percolated, allowing that one to run free on the front end. His tactical trip earned him a second place finish in a Grade 1. I’m most interested in seeing what tactics they will employ today. He’s drawn inside of No Parole, so I don’t think they want to give him an easy lead. On the other hand, there’s no secret to No Parole’s game, so do you hope some of the other speed horses do the dirty work, and try to work out a tracking trip? The latter was the kind of trip that worked well on Friday in the dirt races.
5. Mischievous Alex: Speed is a part of his game as well, and when broke outward last out, he bumped Echo Town, allowing No Parole to scoot away to an uncontested lead. He moved a little early to try to apply pressure and then flattened out. Servis switches to Ortiz, which is a plus, but I’m not sure he’s enough in this spot.
6. No Parole: This speedy son of Violence helped put him on the map as sire as he is now a Grade 1 winning sprinter than is undefeated in one turn races. His game is speed, and he got a dream run in the Woody Stephens. When I watched the Rebel, he lost interest early when Nadal got the jump on him early. He has significant speed to his inside today, and potentially on his outside, depending which tactics Liam’s Pride and Tap It To Win employ. He’s probably going to go off close to even money, and starting in the middle of the field, there’s a lot that can go wrong early. He’s yet to prove he can win when things don’t go exactly his way, so I’ll look for some value to try to beat him, knowing very well he could simply be the best and the fastest horse in the race.
7. Shoplifted: He was the only horse that showed the ability to close on paper going into the Woody Stephens and bettors hammered him down to 7-2, which was a ridiculously low number. He made an early move and flattened out to be third that day. He did run a career best figure and should be more fit off that last race. He has run well here before and could be ready to take the next step forward if he can lay back and make one big run. Tyler Gafflione has won a few races this meet making that same move without giving up tons of ground. He’s intriguing if his odds are greater than his 12-1 morning line.
8. Three Technique: He made the trip to Arkansas this winter to see if he was Triple Crown worthy after a respectable two year old campaign, that included an off the pace open length maiden score at this distance on this track. Englehart is good off the layoff and he should get a decent trip. There’s been positive buzz about him in the AM, which explains the 6-1 morning line. I have a lot of mixed feelings about him though as he’s coming back to face a pretty strong field.
9. Liam’s Pride: He won the Gold Fever in the slop at 13-1 last month at Belmont and he’s still 20-1 on the morning line here, speaking to the depth of this race. He’s making his 9th start of the year already, and I’m not banking on him taking another big step forward, which he would need to do to win this one.
10. Captain Bombastic: Englehart sends out this nice looking New York bred. He has never lost a one turn race on a fast track, which is a positive. He would need to take a significant step forward to hit the board in this race though. I respect the connections taking their shot, but I think he’s in deep water here.
11. Tap It To Win: His two races leading up to the Belmont were super impressive. I was really impressed with comeback race at Gulfstream. He showed that he grew up considerably from the horse that threw in the towel in both Kentucky starts at two. He went on to crush a really good allowance field at Belmont, by open lengths, beating next out Peter Pan winner, Country Grammar. I don’t think he wants 9 Furlongs, and he’s not on the level of Tiz The Law, so I can forgive his last. I think the outside draw is perfect for him and I’m banking on a big rebound effort as a returns to the site of his impressive maiden breaker.
My Picks: 11-7-4
Saratoga 8/1/2020 – Race 11- The Grade 2 Bowling Green, 1 Mile 3/8 Turf
This is a wide open race where most of them in here have a shot. I’ll be searching for value in here, as there are many chances. I see a race where first and last are separated by 7 lengths or less, so the trip and the jockey decisions will likely be what decides this one.
1: Marzo: He was last seen finishing midpack in the Mervin Muniz at the Fair Grounds back in March. Prior to that he show ability at longer distances, winner the Sycamore last year at Keeneland and finish a decent third behind Dot Matrix in the Connally. His versatility should allow him to sit a perfect trip, but I’m thinking his best shot is at the bottom of the exotics.
2. Cross Border: Maker opted to give him a paid workout last week, winning the Lubash for New York breds for fun. He almost took them gate to wire in the Manhattan two back, giving way in the late stages, I don’t see anyone trying to challenge him early again, and he’s never lost a race in four tries on this course. I just worry that he wasn’t able to hold off Channel Maker or Sadler’s Joy two back under ideal circumstances. I will need better than 5-2 to bet him.
3. Highland Sky: I was getting ready to write off this seven year old gelding, but he showed some life in the Tiller last out. He ran his best race of the year last year off a similar pattern, and Junior Alvarado gets the return call after getting a little more out of him last time. He’ll be a price if he runs, as he is cross entered in Sunday’s Birdstone. I’ll be playing him underneath if he runs.
4. Dot Matrix: He just missed at the distance in the Tiller two starts ago, when Paret beat him that day. That one went on to just miss in the Grade 1 United Nations last out. He followed up that effort with an even 8th place finish in the Manhattan. He’s been in the best form of his career over the last few races, with the exception of his botched start the Fair Grounds. He’s another one that could be right there at the end.
5. Channel Maker: Like Highland Sky, he was a big number last out after being off form, but he looked a lot more like his old self. Franco changed up his tactics a bit and had him closer to the pace that Cross Border set last out. His better efforts have come when he’s been more involved early on. I think he’s live if Manny rides him like that again today.
6. Sadler’s Joy: This seven year always shows up on the scene late, and he would be helped tremendously with a little more pace to run at. I don’t see a fast pace happening here, which will likely reduce the impact of his late kick. He’ll be running, but he’s only finished first once in the last two years. I think he’ll be the favorite or second choice, but I don’t see much value here.
7. Pillar Mountain: He’s lightly raced by the standards for this division, making only his 11th career start this afternoon. He might have some upside still, but he has yet to hit the board in a graded stakes race. Factor in that he’s trained by Pletcher, so it’s hard to envision that he’d go off at fair market value.
My Picks: 5-6-3
Saratoga 7/25/2020 – Race 12- The 200,000 Caress, F/M 5 and ½ Furlongs, Turf
There doesn’t appear to be much rain in the forecast until Sunday, so I’m anticipating the turf will be firm for this race. However, if there is some rain, as the weather pattern is a bit unsettled in the Northeast this weekend, it will change the way I’m looking at this race.
1. Getmotherarose: She’s was the winner of the Grade 3 Honey Fox earlier this year at Gulfstream, however that race came at a mile. Her last two races have been in sprints at Belmont, cutting back in distance each time from the race before. She caught courses that were less than firm, which may have hindered her a bit. She’d benefit from a hot pace up front, but even then, I’m not sure she wants to go this short.
2. I’llhandalthecash: She won the License Fee at Belmont last month in a game performance to capture her first stakes victory. Her three races this year have been good, and she has definitely shown a lot of improvement from her three year old campaign. This filly has a lot of upside in this spot.
3. Sweet Bye and Bye: This five year old mare is fairly consistent, finishing on the board in 11 of her 14 starts, winning 6 of them. She has only been off the board one time while racing on the grass, and that was in her most recent start, back in January at Gulfstream, in Grade 3 company. She has never run this short on grass though, and I’m not sure this is an ideal distance for her.
4. Introduced: She moves up in class after winning her first two starts of the year, sprinting on grass at Laurel and Delaware. In her only career try sprinting on the grass, in open stakes company, she finished third as a beaten favorite at Laurel last year. She’s a nice filly that will need to take a step forward to beat this group to today.
5. Jakarta: She returns to the grass and drops out of graded company after two tough starts at Belmont. She caught wet courses both days, which might not have been to her liking. If the course stays firm, she is a threat to take them all the way, as I don’t see anyone in here that can go with her early. If rain softens up the course a bit, I’m probably looking the other way.
6. Mother Mother: Her year started off so promising, but her last three have been very ordinary. She has faced stronger in each of those three starts, and there’s no Bellafina or Monomoy Girl in here. I get the idea to try something new with her, however I’m not convinced a switch to grass will change this one’s fortunes.
7. Dalika: She closed well last out in the License Fee to get within a half-length of I’llhandalthecash. She stays on as a sprinter after running all of her three year old races around two turns. She’d be the type to benefit from a hot pace up front, but I’m not certain that’s she going to get that today. She’s definitely live though, but I don’t see a lot of value with her. I’ll will hedge some bets with her, but I’m trying to beat her today.
8. Saratoga Treasure: This New York bred ran very well three starts back, winning the Autumn Days at Aqueduct at 17-1. She returned in the Intercontinental and was overmatched by next out Grade 1 winner, Newspaperofrecord. I would have liked to see her be a little more competitive while facing New York breds in her last next start. She still could move forward in her third start of the year, and is worth taking a long look at if her odds float over 15-1.
9. Cariba: She’s a new face in the division for the red hot Christophe Clement barn. She clearly has showed in her last three starts that she is simply a different animal on turf than she is on the main track. She handily beat a next out winner in allowance company last time, in her first one turn sprint. Rosario opts to ride Dalika, but getting Irad Ortiz as a replacement isn’t a bad thing. She’s dangerous in here today.
10. Miss Gossip: She’s the oldest mare in the field, making her third start as a seven year old. Her last two have been competitive while racing in allowance company at Churchill. She has run well on this course in the past, finishing second to Oleksandra in the Smart and Fancy last year. That may explain why they decided to ship her North, instead of staying in Kentucky for the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Sprint, running tomorrow at Ellis. She’s another one that would benefit from a hot pace that I don’t see shaping up on paper.
My Picks: Firm turf: 5-9-2 / Less Than Firm: 2-7-9