FLORIDA OAKS
- Ivyetsu- Geroux/Arnold II
- Geroux gets the mount, as Leparoux tales Secure Connection. She gets blinkers on for the first time today as she returns to the turf after a very promising debut. Her dirt form wasn’t as impressive and she has 3 starts on dirt compared to 1 on turf. This is her second start off the layoff and her figures aren’t too crazy but fromful. I think if she can get comfortable early on she could make a run for all the marbles.
- New York Groove- Gallardo/Trombetta
- New York Groove is an undefeated filly but all 4 starts came on the synthetic at Presque Isle Downs and Woodbine. She should bring her strong form to the turf today. She has yet to run in 2020 which is a slight knock against her when it comes to fitness. However, she has a very strong workout on Feb 29th with 4F for 47 and 3 resulting as a bullet work. Her figures are part of the upper echelon of horses in this field. I think she has a strong chance today.
- Secure Connection – Leparoux/McGaughey III
- Leparoux rides her today instead of Ivyetsu which is interesting. I think this is the lesser of the two but I think she still has some talent. I think her last start was very solid but I think the small layoff of almost two months is slightly concerning unless they were pointing to this spot. I will be using other horses today.
- Mirabell Mei- Morales/Terranova II
- This John Terranova filly is coming into this race only off of an above average maiden special weight victory. Her speed figure in her maiden victory was solid but she could of just faced a weaker group than in her debut three races back. I will be looking elsewhere.
- Correctness- Centeno/ Delacour
- Delacour has the same angle as the filly inside of her. Her figures are less than average here by a decent amount. The layoff is also a negative angle for her today. I don’t see much for this filly in this race.
- Walk In Marrakesh (IRE)- Bravo/Correas IV
- Joe Bravo picks up a very strong mount today in Walk in Marrakesh. Ignacio seems to have this horse in prime fitness based on the consistent worktab. She just missed in the Alabama stakes in her only turf race in America as she has most of her career form from Great Britain. She seems to be the best in the field when it comes to form and class. She is my top choice today.
- Galileos Ballerina – Castanon/ Brinkman
- The 7th entrant today is Galileos Ballerina and she seems to be in this race way over her head. Brett Brinkman seems to have some incredible expectations for this filly. She is shipping in from Fair Grounds but seems to barely prove herself there. Her figures are slightly below par but I think she will need to step it up a lot today to make an impact.
- Outburst (GB) -Castellano/ Kenneally
- Outburst is another overseas horse today and has one win at Tampa as a prep it seems. Castellano picks up the mount today for the first time and seems to be picking up a good filly. She should improve in her second start in America and off the layoff. I will be using her strongly today.
- How Ironic- Suarez/ Oliver
- How Ironic is probably the biggest toss for me in this field. I just don’t see anything positive from her today in this type of field. She seems to be an allowance horse at best for me.
- Secret Stash(IRE)- Camacho/ Casse
- Gary Barber gets another horse under his ownership in a stakes race. Samy Camacho gets the mount today for the first time. She seems to be a bit one paced and this filly won’t benefit from it in this field. I think she will get bet but I don’t like her one bit here.
- Blame Debbie- Velazquez/Motion
- Blame Debbie has been in some stakes races already but on dirt. She is trying turf for the first time and seems to possibly want it. She hasn’t done much on the dirt but I think the talent is there just Blame Debbie herself is still figuring it out. I don’t know if turf is the answer and I don’t like her enough to hope she likes it.
- Micheline- Lopez/Stidham
Micheline would be more impactful from a post closer to the middle of this field. I think she is the strongest closer today and I wish Jose Ortiz was still aboard but he is out due to injury. Paco isn’t the best closer in these spots but I think he should do justice. I will be using her but not as my top pick but more as a horizontal play.
TOP PICKS
#6 Walk in Marrakesh
#1 Ivyetsu
#2 New York Groove