COMMONWEALTH TURF STAKES G3
- Tobacco Road- Alex Achard/John Ennis
- This colt is really out of his class range today, and the only way I see him making an impact is if the pace completely falls apart or her truly likes turf more than dirt. Just nothing I really like from him today in this spot.
- Osage Moon- Miguel Mena/ Mark Casse
- This folt in my eyes is still finding his true form. Mark Casse has had an exceptional year conditioning his horses, and I feel like he is also learning his run style. I trust Miguel Mena way more than the candian jockeys riding him before this race. However, the layoff after two straight wins on the turf at Woodbine is a little head scratching. He seems to like to go to the lead as of late and Mena can be aggressive when he needs to be. I think if he is on the lead or sits right off he has a legitimate shot to steal this race.
- Clint Maroon (GB)- Channing Hill/ Wayne Catalano
- Clint Maroon is a very even horse when it comes to runstyle. His races early in the year were his best races on paper, but also were the only races to set up in a favorable way. He needs the lead in order to win it seems, and I don’t think he gets it today. He could get a piece underneath though.
- Priate’s Punch- Robby Albarado/ Grant Foster
- If this was on dirt, I would have this horse on all tickets due to his tactical and game type of speed on the dirt. However this is a route turf race and also a grade 3 with a ton of talent in it. I think this is just a bad spot for a horse who never showed signs that he wanted turf and never ran on the turf.
- Marquee Prince- Tyler Gaffalione/ Brad Cox
- This one caught my eye a little. I think if the speed is lined up today and it gets busy on the front end, Marquee Prince can sit the trip. I trust Tyler Gaffalione to sit about 3rd or 4th off the speed unless more go to lead early that I expect. I he runs the way he did in Louisiana then he could win this race easy.
- Spectacular Gem- James Graham/ James Baker
- Another horse that can be on the lead but also could sit slightly off. It seems as if he needs the lead to win however, so I can see James Graham sending from mid pack. He just won the Jefferson Cup last time out which was a prep for this race. He had an easy lead with easy fractions and held on for the win. If he doesn’t get an easy lead today I don’t like his chances.
- Tracksmith- BJ Hernandez Jr./ Joe Sharp
- This is one of my top choices in this race. With all the speed lined up early, I think Tracksmith will be able to track them down and roll late. BJ Hernandez Jr is a legit rider and one of the most underrated on the turf, which gives me nothing but confidence that he will give this guy the perfect trip.
- Tiz Plus- Ricardo Santana Jr./ Steve Asmussen
- You can never look pass this duo. I like this duo even more because this horse was winning ALW races at Remington with Mindy Willis and Stewie Elliot as the connections so I expect this new duo to help this colt take the next step forward. Should be sitting off the pace and have the right trip lined up with Santana.
- Knicks Go- Gabriel Saez/ Ben Colebrook
- Knicks Go is a one runstyle type of horse that needs to set crazy early fractions and just run away with it at the end. I don’t think he can get that trip today and I think turf is even a bigger question. Should be gunning for the lead with Gabriel Saez though.
- Armistice Day- Corey Lanerie/ Barbara Minshall
- I can’t figure this horse out. He can close going short but sits close to the pace going long. He can run well on any surface and he has been to 4 different racetracks in his medium sample of races. Looks like the connections always wanted synthetic and not turf, so it is strange to me on why he isn’t still at Woodbine.
- Mr. Dumas- Joe Rocco Jr./ John Ortiz
- I don’t trust Joe Rocco Jr. at this stage of his career to get a horse home. If Rocco can sit him right he can have a chance late, but when I see Rocco aboard in a field of 14 I tend to look at other places because of talent and age. Despite the bias, I think the horse figures to be in a good spot and if the trip is right could make a run for the leaderboard come midstretch.
- Louder Than Bombs- Alex Canchari/ David Fawkes
- This gelding seems to just miss every race. This makes me think he likes to hang down the lane and I don’t trust Canchari to get this horse up at the wire if the horse is a hanger. I think the horse is coming back into form however since being gelded, which is always a good sign.
- Faraway Kitten- Julien Leparoux/ Michael Maker
- Leparoux has been having a solid campaign this year, and this horse has been doing alright everywhere he goes. However, he has been beaten the last two times by Spectacular Gem which is a bad sign since Spectacular Gem is in this race and the race favors Spectacular Gem’s run styler more than Faraway Kitten’s.
- Journeyman- Declan Cannon/ Eoin Harty
- I think the post kills this horses chances, and especially the way he runs also gets killed a little due to the post. He seems like the horse that lays in off the pace and sits the right trip but coming from the 14 hole, I can only expect him to have to sit wide all the way around and tire out.
PICKS : #7 Tracksmith, #5 Marquee Prince, #2 Osage Moon