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Race #10: The 43^rd Running of the $500,000 Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes

One mile on the turf for three year olds

Post Time: 6:28 PM EDT

Of the three Grade 1 races that Arlington is offering on Saturday, it is the Secretariat that appears to be the most wide open of all the fields. There are several possible reasons for this: first and foremost, the Secretariat Stakes which previously had been run at the distance of 10F will be reduced down to just 8F this year. The change was made so as to try an not conflict with the distances for the races that NYRA was offering as part of their new Turf Trinity series and to be closer in distance to that of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (which is generally run at either 8F or 8.5F). Secondly, this race does not appear to have a standout contender that towers over his peers. Sure both Chad Brown and Aidan O’Brien have entered a pair of runners but none of them are the top colts in their barns and appear to be just slightly above par (at least compared to what the local prep, the G3 American Derby, produced last month). All in all this makes for quite a fascinating edition of this race and it may be possible to have a decently priced horse win this affair on Saturday. 

Selections: 3-7-4, LIVE LONGSHOT: 5

1. Clint Maroon (Wayne Catalano, Channing Hill) 3yo gelding by Oasis Dream, 20-1 ML

• July 4^th: 4^th in the 8F $100K Manila Stakes over a firm rated turf course at BP
  • 111 TF speed fig
  • Stumble at the start pretty much cost himself any chance in that race as he was further back (than normal early on)
• Was then sold in a private sale for $200K and will race for 1^st time on Sat coming out of Catalano barn
• Running style is fairly versatile (pace-setter/presser/stalker) but given his modest early speed will likely be in mid-pack or 1^st flight of stalkers early on
• Only try against graded stakes company (G3 Pennine Ridge) resulted in 5^th place finish and as he will be stepping up on Sat to G1 company from a listed stakes effort, it is hard to endorse him here especially for a trainer that does not have a lot of success w/ runners making their first starts for him (11% win rate/45% ITM rate from 38 starts over past 3 years)
• ULTIMATUM: TOSS

2. Van Beethoven: (Aidan O’Brien, Wayne Lordan) 3yo colt by Scat Daddy, 8-1 ML

• Well-beaten 8^th in the G1 St. James’s Palace Stakes at Ascot on 6/18 going a mile over good rated going
  • Earned a 105 TF speed rating for effort which was fairly similar to G1 Irish 2000 Guineas effort at the Curragh back in May; never really threatened to get involved
  • Van Beethoven has not won a race or finished in the money since 2^nd career start when he won the G2 Railway Stakes going 6F at the Curragh last June
• Does not possess great early speed (appears to be mid-pack to late running closer type)
• Has not hit the board in any of his three tries at a mile on turf
• May wake up a bit though with 1^st time Lasix on Sat (though AOB’s track record w/ getting runners to win or even hit the board under those circumstances is not great)
• Does enter this race following a 56 day layoff and from a limited sample, AOB has had 4 of 6 runners hit the board in US efforts following similar layoffs
• ULTIMATUM: Very hard to endorse this colt at all (even though he has been racing against top level competition this year in Britain, Ireland and France); there are others in this field that I prefer more

3. Never No More (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 3yo colt by No Nay Never, 6-1 ML

• Last seen besting Madhmoon by ½ a length in the 2000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown way back on April 6^th racing 7F over soft going
  • Earned a 106 TF speed fig; very impressive effort in that race as he tracked the leaders early on, was forced to switch outside when his main rival moved in front of him in the final furlong, commenced an excellent drive and moved past that rival in the final 50yds
• Running style appears to be that of a pace-presser/stalker which should suit him well in this field, although he does have excellent late speed coupled with a great kick (as evidenced from his most recent effort)
• The main concern here is obviously the very long layoff (unsure as to why he has not raced in over four months), but after viewing him Thursday morning when the Ballydoyle contingent walked through the paddock and around the track, he appears to be in full flesh and looks quite fit
• Another concern regarding this colt is the step up in class as he has yet to compete against graded stakes/group company in his short career; thus Saturday will be a major test for him as he will be taking on more seasoned foes
• The final concern regarding this colt is the distance, he has yet to contest any race further than 7F; however, his pedigree suggests that the stretchout on Sat is certainly feasible
• Never No More will be receiving Lasix for the first time on Saturday so that could help his chances of running well.
• Ultimatum: All in all, there are a number of concerns surrounding this colt and yet seeing as how he’s not trained by an individual named Chad Brown, he may go off at a decent price in this race. Furthermore, if he can return to the form that he displayed back in April, then he merits serious consideration against this field. He will be my tentative top selection in this race.

4. The Last Zip (Michael Stidham, Adam Beschizza) 3yo gelding by City Zip, 6-1 ML

• Dead-heated with rival Crafty Daddy for 2^nd in the 8.5F G3 American Derby at AP on 7/13
  • Tied career best 105 TF speed fig; tracked pace from third throughout much of the race (was a bit wide in the turn and going into the stretch), rallied between rivals in the deep stretch and just missed getting up to win
  • All in all, it was a fairly impressive effort for this gelding as it was his first attempt against graded stakes company after breaking his maiden in his prior effort
• Running style is that of a pace-setter/presser and the TF PP suggests he could find himself on the lead (albeit a narrow one as there are others in this field that will likely want to be forwardly placed) early on
• Will need to step up once again on Saturday as he makes the jump from G3 to G1 company; however, he will be cutting back in distance (just slightly) and that could work in his favor as it appears 8.5F is about as far as he wants to run
• Has been working out solidly over the AP Polytrack in recent weeks for Stidham suggesting he has maintained his fitness coming into this race
• Also it is very noteworthy that Beschizza eschews the mount that he won the prep race on (Faraway Kitten) in favor of The Last Zip and this should be considered a very encouraging rider change for the gelding
• Ultimatum: In what appears to be a wide open affair this year with not much separating the entire field, it might be worth it to take a shot with a horse that could potentially be overlooked on the toteboard. Therefore, I will consider The Last Zip to be a win contender in this race, although he will be my overall 3^rd choice.

5. Ry’s the Guy: (Ian Wilkes, Chris Landeros) 3yo colt by Distorted Humor, 15-1 ML

• Made turf debut last time out (after previously running exclusively on dirt) in an 8F $97K Allowance effort over a firm rated turf at CD
  • Earned 114 TF speed fig for his effort; tracked pace from 3^rd early on, was in the 3 path in the far turn, made a bid for the lead in the straight and drew clear from his rivals to win by 2 ½ lengths
  • Although this was a fairly impressive effort for this colt, I’m not entirely sure what he beat in that race and will certainly need to take a major step up in class in order to contend on Sat
• His running style (at least as evidenced from his two prior efforts) is fairly similar to that of the two runners drawn to his inside as he appears to good early speed and should be forwardly positioned early on (the TF PP suggests he will be up near the initial pace being set by The Last Zip)
  • I would expect Landeros to try and work out a similar trip to the one he gave his mount last time out and if he can avoid getting caught up in traffic, he will be there at the end
• Ry’s the Guy has put forth a series of solid works (including a 4F bullet on 7/20) leading up to this which suggests this colt is in good form right now
• Wilkes: Past 3 Years, 2^nd Grass Race: 17/43 from 35 starts
  • Concern is that Landeros has not been particularly good this year on turf (228 starts: 7/22); however, Landeros is the only rider this colt has ever known so the familiarity that exists between horse and rider could be of benefit in this race
• Ultimatum: If this colt’s grass debut was not merely a fluke and he can handle the sharp step up in class, then he merits consideration in this race. It appears that this edition of the Secretariat might be one where it will be beneficial to race up close to the pace early on and with his good tactical speed, Ry’s the Guy should be in contention when the field hits the stretch. At 15-1 it might be worth taking a shot with this LIVE LONGSHOT to see if he can pull off the upset and win.

6. Fog of War: (Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr) 3yo colt by War Front, 3-1 ML

• 2^nd in the $100K Manila Stakes by ½ a length to Win Win Win on July 4^th going a mile at BP
  • Earned a career best 117 TF speed fig; tracked initial leaders for the first ½ of the race, then ran 3w from the 5/16ths to the 1/16^th pole vs a pair of rivals, led up to the deep stretch and was just beaten at the wire
  • Speed fig was a career best by 22 pts but this was the 2^nd straight race of his 3yo campaign in which he had failed as the favorite
• Now he steps back up to G1 company (a class level he hasn’t competed at since winning the G1 Summer Stakes up at Woodbine vs War of Will last Sept)
• Although he has finished ITM in both tries at a mile, given his pedigree, that distance might actually be a little too short for him; however, his running style of a pace-presser/stalker should keep him involved in this race throughout its entirety
  • There is a part of me that is a bit concerned that perhaps this colt simply has not been able to make the progression from a 2yo to a 3yo and that he may not be as good as his 2yo form suggested
  • It is also fairly telling that as Javier Castellano was the sole rider for both Fog of War and Valid Point and now he hops off the former to ride the latter, exactly what he thinks of this colt’s chances
• The recent works that Fog of War has posted coming into this race have been solid but not spectacular (outside of a 5F work over the turf at Saratoga on 7/28)
• Brown: Past 3 Years, 3^rd off the Layoff: 22/65 from 147 starts
• Ultimatum: As the ML favorite in this race at 3-1, with form that is a little suspect, perhaps it is worth a shot to take a stand against this son of War Front; however, that is not to say that he should be completely excluded from all exotic wagers for this race.

7. Valid Point (Chad Brown, Javier Castellano) 3yo colt by Scat Daddy, 5-1 ML

• Easily bested a field of $80K OC by over 3 lengths going a mile on the grass at BP back on June 7^th
  • Earned a 112 TF speed fig; (race was coded as having a slow pace by TF), ran 3w in initial pursuit, coaxed at the 5/16^ths pole, 3-4w in the upper stretch, drew away in the upper stretch and edged clear at the end
  • The speed fig was a massive 21pt jump from his debut but is to be expected considering that effort came following a nearly 4 month layoff
• The one mile distance should present no issues for this colt especially considering that he has raced at 8F in his only two lifetime starts and won both of those efforts
• However, the steep step up in class would normally be a major concern…for any other trainer not named Chad Brown (who usually spots his horses quite well when making stakes debuts like this)   
  • What is of some concern though is that the morning works for Valid Point leading up to this race have not been particularly inspiring or fast in any manner and perhaps this one might not give his best effort on Saturday
• As for running style, this colt is yet another one that has done all of his running pressing/stalking the pace, though unlike many of the rivals drawn to his inside, he does not have very good early speed and thus might find himself towards the rear of the field early on
  • But he does appear to have a solid late closing kick and if Javy can find a way to keep his charge from getting shuffled well back at the start and remain in contact with the leaders, then Valid Point should be in contention as the field hits the top of the stretch
• Brown: Past 3 Years, 46-90 Day Layoffs: 27/61 from 734
• Castellano: Riding for Brown Over the Past 60 Days: 24/71 from 63
  • Also Turf Races This Year: 23/52 from 318
• Ultimatum: I ended up making Valid Point my 2^nd choice in this race as I believe it’s worth taking a shot in this field with a promising young colt that appears to have the ideal combination of running style, jockey and trainer to get it done and win the Secretariat.

8. Faraway Kitten: (Mike Maker, John Velazquez) 3yo colt by Kitten’s Joy, 9/2 ML

• Won the 8.5F G3 American Derby over a firm rated turf course at AP by a neck over two common rivals back on 7/13
  • Earned a career best 105 TF speed fig; sat in mid-pack early on through the first turn and into the backstretch, split foes at the ¼ pole, came in on foe coming into the straight, shifted 2w into the upper stretch, rallied, seized the lead at the 1/8^th pole and just held on to win
  • Win was his 1^st versus graded stakes company, although the field he faced in that race was not particularly strong
• Will be stepping up in class once again on Sat and on a whole his speed figs (along w/ those of the other runners exiting the American Derby) are fairly slow compared to the rest of this field
• Furthermore, it is very possible the slight cutback in distance from 8.5F to a mile could hurt his chances at winning given his off the pace running style (his prior efforts are a veritable mixed bag in which he flashes good early speed for one or two starts and then reverses course and is slow early on before ramping up the speed figs late)
  • Thus it is somewhat unknown as to how forwardly positioned Johnny V will have his charge; although, it appears that being positioned towards the rear of the field in this affair is not the ideal place to be
• Maker: Past 3 Years, Winner Last Race: 18/45 from 655
• Rider change from Beschizza to Velazquez: it is a bit troubling that Beschizza hops off this colt to ride another in this field and Maker is forced to make the jockey switch to Velazquez who has been fairly cold riding on turf this year
• Ultimatum: I was not particularly high on this colt going into the American Derby and he proved me wrong. I’m willing to let him beat me again, this time going shorter and against a tougher bunch of rivals. That being said, in what appears to be a fairly wide open race, it would not hurt to include Faraway Kitten underneath in your exotics as a saver bet.

9. Crafty Daddy: (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux) 3yo gelding by Scat Daddy, 5-1 ML

• Dead heated for 2^nd in the 8.5F G3 American Derby on 7/13 at AP
  • Earned a 105 TF speed rating; bumped a foe early on, chased the leaders 2-3w through the backstretch, pushed along into the 5 path in the final turn, commenced a 3w rally in the stretch and just got up for 2^nd
  • Speed figs on a whole are fairly slow and would need to improve significantly in order to merit serious contender status in this field
• Running style is pretty much a cornucopia of every possible style: first three efforts dating back to last December (ran as a deep closer), two spring time efforts (ran as a pace-presser), last time out (ran as a mid-pack stalker-though getting bumped early on may have had something to do with that)
  • Thus it is not particularly clear as to which running style this gelding will display on Sat- though his best chance at winning comes if he reverts to the pace-pressing ability he demonstrated back in the spring
  • Also there is the definite possibility that the cutback in distance is going to work to Crafty Daddy’s disadvantage on Sat as it seems that he would prefer to be racing longer than a mile
• Crafty Daddy fired off a very sharp 4F work over the track at CD at the beginning of this month and thus should be coming into this race in good form
• Geroux: Riding for Cox Over the Past 60 Days: 26/68 from 34
• Ultimatum: Crafty Daddy was my top choice to win the American Derby last month and I was a little disappointed when he was unable to drive past Faraway Kitten in the deep stretch and win. Now considering that he will be cutting back in distance, draws the outside post with a somewhat short run-up to the first turn, will be facing a much tougher field than what he raced against previously, and does not appear to be as fast as many of his rivals, it stands to figure that he should be used only as an underneath play in this race as I do not believe that he can win.