We had a nice day last Wednesday for my write up. As you will all learn, I am not interested in top pick percentage or place and show wagers. My results will be posted every week showing the ROI of my top pick for each race that I send based upon a $2 win bet on my top choice. I will also recap my Play of the Day every week including how much was wagered ($15 max), amount won or lost, and running ROI for the Play of the Day.
If you ever have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to me or shoot me a follow on twitter. @bobbi_niggi
Good Luck today and let’s get some prices home!
Week 1 Results
Top Choice ($2 to win)
Total Wagered- $16 Total Return- $48.80 ROI- 305%
Top Pick Winner $2 Return
Race 6- $16.40
Race 8- $32.40
Play of the Day Results ($15 max wager)
Total Wager– $10 Total Return- $64.80 ROI- 648%
Race 1-
Steeplechase. Same review as last week! I would never lead you in the wrong direction. I have no idea how to cap these races as I have never done so before. Your dart is as good as my dart in this spot!
Race 2 (5,9,6)
Starting off tough with this baby race. I landed on 5, The Honest Toun. If you watch replay of last race, this horse closed much better than it looked. He was against the track pretty big and still was able to close and make up some ground. I don’t love Donk at all, especially on the east coast, but Ortiz and Donk 36% together all time at the Spa. Probably will take a bit of money here but best shot to win in my opinion.
Race 3 (4,1,10) OFF TURF RUN AT 7F NOW
If you were hoping this race got easier after the first, sorry to let you down. If you follow me on twitter, you know I am a sucker for work patterns. There are a few trainers who I don’t pay attention to their patterns and Rudy Rod is one of them. This horse should be able to handle the distance without much of a problem and gets both of our main men, Carmouche. Barn is smokin’ and Rudy Rod is 17% with FTS at Spa. Carmouche is also 25% all time riding FTS for Rudy. Must run extremely well, but this would be my top choice. Or, my shot. One to watch. Has a chance. Watch down the lane. Should be feared. Live. (TC,MS,OTW,HAC,WDTL,SBF,L)
Race 4 (3,2,10)
Going to be pretty tough to beat Chad and Co in this one. AOT does look good in this spot but I am hoping that Jose opens up early and can take Sassy Little Lila the distance. The dam only went this long one time and was nipped right at the wire. Jose riding well and it was interesting to see him get the call here as he never has previously. This horse does have a bit of trouble finishing off a race but I am hoping for an easy lead and to send this one home. Brissett has had some live runners this meet and Jose rode his only winner thus far.
Race 5 (8,9,4)
This guy rode huge LTO off the layoff and is in a good spot to improve again here. Gets Red hot Saez and I think another improvement is in store today. Has a solid record of 2-1-1-0 at the Spa and this guy is my top choice.
Race 6 (11,3,5) OFF TURF
What a nice field this is! At first glance, the dam pedigree on Wesley Ward runner, #7, is absolutely insane. I am a big sucker for dam pedigree and this one seems to have it all. With that said, I am going to take a shot in another direction. I landed on #4, Get Set. Has not had any siblings run yet, but the dam was 2-7 sprinting on the dirt and has some nice win early pedigree to boot. Klesaris normally gets a lot of improvement second time out and is 33% with 2nd start maidens. Couple all of that with the fact that Klesaris always has his horses live for the Spa and he gets da God (shoutout Swifty), I am in. I am going to be making a bet on this one.
Bummed that this is now off the turf. I really wanted to take a stab with the 4 horse here and make this my play of the day. Neverless, we we have to adapt. I am going to audible to #11, Hemlock. I know everyone is going to be all over the 1 horse, but I don’t love in this spot. Contessa normally gets some improvement next out and this horse ran a monster race on debut but I am going to take a stab against. I like the #11 because Alvarado is another jock who I think is highly underrated. I know Mott doesn’t like to win FTO too often, but I think this horse has a big shot today. The only sib on the dam side who ran on an off track was a winner so that is a plus to me as well. With the scratches and smaller field now, this one draws well and I think has a shot to win.
Race 7 (2,8,9)
I landed on the 2 here in this tough race. I love Carmouche and he has a pretty solid track record with Dilger. I watched this horses last 2 workouts and was visually impressed with appearance. Has some class and coming second off the layoff should merit enough improvement that could win against a lot of horses with tons of question marks making the big switch to the turf.
Race 8 (4,1,3)
The G2 Honorable Miss draws in a pretty nice race in my opinion. It doesn’t look like we are going to get too much pace in this one and that is drawing me away from my initial pick of Honey Bunny who was with the flow of the race LTO and still wasn’t able to get up. After a lot of deliberation, I landed back on Mia Mischief. Love that she is able to rate or show early speed and make sure she gets the trip. Santana and Assmussen both having nice meets and this one is going to be tough to beat.
Race 9 (5,6,7)
In this race, I want Cannizo who is 1-1 this meet and got his lone win with our play of the day last week, Slimey at 15:1. Historically ships in some live runners and this one should sit a super nice trip. I don’t see a ton of pace in here and Santana is a good jock and should sit behind the early speed and clear late. We should get a nice price and I think the cut back is going to suit her perfectly. We should be able to get a square price on this one and I will be betting anywhere near the ML. Oddly enough, the broodmare of one of my top picks is running in this race! You don’t see that very often.
Race 10 (5,3,9)
I love horses who have run at the Spa before and have the experience. No better time to try to take a stab with Levine and try to get Franco out of him slump! Take Charge Aubrey is 2-1-1-0 here and 1-1 at this distance. I do see a ton of pace and it is going to be tough to fend off some of the big closers such as Surging Tide, but I think the price is going to be right. Levine has had some live runners this meet TCA gets a nice drop today. I was able to go back and watch some replays of this gal and she was another one I was visually impressed with. I think she has a good shot to clear late and going to cross my fingers that Franco can get it done!
Wednesday 7/24 Play of the Day
Race 5
$5 win 8
$4 Exacta 8-9
$2 Exacta 9-8
$.50 tri 8/9/ALL
$.50 tri 8/9/4