Hello all and welcome back to Saratoga for what is the final week of Saratoga (yes, that noise is me crying). Last week we had a nice week where we went positive for the day. The weather looks solid here for the day which will be fantastic. We’ve lost some riders here at the Spa this week for Churchill Downs and Derby week. We need just $4.80 to go even for the meet and that would be fantastic for us here. Let’s get hot today and try to get another winning day to end off the meet on a high note.
Bet/Returned:
$130/$145.20
Twitter: @EdPiluso
Race 1: 7-5-1/1A
#7 COMPLAINT just ran a solid race coming off almost a 10 month layoff and that was a stalking trip behind a very slow pace. We see a couple of consistent workouts since that last race and I expect some improvement from that race. If there is any improvement from that race this colt should be the easy winner here, and he could win even without improvement as I do believe he is the class of this field. The drop in class here is a 40% success rate for Chad Brown here as well. #5 HOLY EMPEROR got out dueled last race, losing by a nose. That race was impressive and this guy has been ITM in every race on the grass. Saez retains the mount here and his early speed could serve him well here.
Race 2: 3-4-1
#3 LONG TERM THINKING is still a maiden as he got DQ’d in his debut and only lost by a neck in his next two starts. Jose is jumping up today for Chad Brown and Brown’s very solid numbers of 29% off this layoff makes me confident. This guy has the best Beyer’s in the field and getting this big drop should almost guarantee a victory today. #4 CAUSE I SAID SO is coming second off the layoff here and I expect some improvement. Joel is jumping back up here after running second here in their last race at this level. I think this guy offers some price value for the under’s here.
Race 3: 2-7-1
#2 PLUM ALI had a nice race out here last time at this distance and she sat behind a moderate pace and was able to make a nice move to get 4 wide at the 5/16’s pole and run by the rest of the field. There is some pace in this race regardless of the low number of runners, most of the other’s have speed and this filly should be able to sit off what could be a nice pace and make a good run in the stretch. CC and Joel team up and they’ve been money this meet. #7 SIMPLY RAVISHING won last time out and stalked the pace but it wasn’t super fast. I believe that pace will be slightly slower than today’s but I’m not sure if that Beyer earned really reflects the race she ran.
Race 4: 5-1-6
#5 I’LL TAKE THE CAKE has some good looking tactical speed and runs well at this distance being 5 of 9 times ITM. The drop in class here is interesting as we haven’t seen this mare down this low in some time. Saez is jumping up today and this mare does run quite well on the fast dirt. Her Beyer’s are some of the best in the field and she looks to be able to win here with a nice stalking trip at a decent price. #1 COVER PHOTO is a Finger Lakes shipper who has had some decent works since her last race. She’s ITM in both races at this distance with a win and a third. This filly does her best work breaking from the inside and I think that will continue today. Last time at this level she was a winner down at Aqueduct.
Race 5: 8-7-9
#8 CLASSIC COLORS had a poor start last race out but was able to make a solid run at the leaders and finish a strong 3rd at the distance over the track. She has the best Beyer in the field earned with that race and she’s the only horse in here who has run this distance before which I think is huge. A work similar to the one she did before that last race makes me believe she can run back to that if not better and that can beat this field. #7 HERALD ANGEL ran a very solid race here on the mellon course in a sprint and is now stretching out to a route where the trainer is 19% in this condition. This filly has speed and is bred to go this distance if not longer. Jose jumps up here and this filly could find herself on the lead.
Race 6: 4-3-7
#4 BIG Q got a very tough optional claimer last time out and that field could even be seen as better than this one here. The filly chased but to no avail in that race. Today there is a good amount of pace in this race that she will be around but she has dealt with that before. The filly has won an ungraded stake like this before and the jockey was up for her breaking her maiden. She offers some value in this stakes race and though her Saratoga record is spotty, she’s been in some very tough and forgivable races up here at the Spa. #3 SPIN A YARN is a filly who is 4 for 4 overall and has run some very solid races over at Finger Lakes She has a lot of speed and is stretching out in distance here slightly but she should be able to handle it. She obviously has talent and is a must include here in my opinion.
Race 7: 1-10-7
#1 KITTEN BY THE SEA gets Jose back up today and is dropping down in class today after a bit of a stinker last race. This filly is getting blinkers off here which I think will help and she does have some solid speed from the inside. There isn’t too much speed here so this will obviously work into her favor. I don’t think she liked the ground last time out with the moisture in it but her best Beyer is on this turf course and I think she should get it done with not too much speed here. #10 MUSIC OF LIFE is coming off a layoff from May. She’s been ITM in all 3 races she’s run in this year and she did get caught in the last race as she did put her head in front. She has some very solid races overall on the grass and a decent one here as well.
Race 8: 6-8-2
There are a lot of good runners in this race here and it is wide open but I landed on #6 FAIR REGIS for the pace scenario. There is a lot of speed in this race and the pace should be hot so she should be able to sit right off that pace and get a nice stalking trip. Irad jumps back up today and this mare is 16 for 18 ITM at this distance which is extremely encouraging. Her and Irad in the last year haven’t finished worse than 2nd together and that bullet workout looks great. #8 SPANISH POINT is taking a step up in class here after beating some weaker foes last time out. That win was here at the Spa and she’s won at the distance before. The pace scenario sets up well for her here as well but I don’t believe she’s as good as the top selection here.
Race 9: 8-7-4
#8 ORGLANDES is getting quite the cutback in distance and is coming off two victories coming into the states. She gets Lasix for the first time and is a very good runner on the grass with a lot of pedigree. Chad always has his runners ready and Irad is up today which we love. #7 MISS TEHERAN (IRE) is put second for the reason that she’s only run on the grass once but she does have some great turf pedigree and handled synthetic very well. Hot riding Saez up is very nice to see as Chad obviously had options here. She has some very consistent workouts and gets the Lasix for the first time. I’m going to box these two in an exacta as the play.
Race 10: 9-2-6
#9 APURATE is a nice looking 12/1 shot who I think is very live here. She’s switching back to the grass here where she has done her best work and has a solid collection of Beyer’s. She’s run over this Saratoga turf before and has a 2nd over it. Switching to the grass looks to be huge for her here and we are going to take a shot here in the finale to end off my meet. #2 RED LIGHT RACER is a $525,000 purchase given to Chad Brown and we are getting 8/1 ML on that. She has consistent works on the grass and Chad has great numbers going long with debut runners