Hello and welcome back to the Spa! Last week for opening day we had 2 on top winners out of the 10 races, putting us just under even for the day. We did get DQ’d in the 2nd race of the day however with our 5/1 top pick, keeping us from finishing positive and winning the daily double. This week we will try to continue last week’s success but with no disqualifications. Interestingly we do not have any dirt routes today just as a side note. Let’s waste no more time, get hot today and pick some winners!
PLEASE NOTE: There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms today. If rain does come to impact the track or any races get taken OFF TURF, my twitter will be listed below as always and I will tweet my opinions for those races!
Twitter: @EdPiluso
For your sake I will not be giving picks for the steeplechase, it wouldn’t be in anybody’s best interest.
Race 2: 8-5-3
#8 NORTHERN HAZE is an interesting one here at 10/1 ML. Last race was a clunker, an awkward start and was eased by Rosario. Today he drops down to his lowest level ever which is extremely interesting especially with blinkers off after that last race. This gelding is 2 for 2 here at Saratoga and won a race above this level earning his best Beyer here last year. The is also 3 of 4 ITM at the distance with 2 wins (Both the Saratoga victories) which are also his best Beyer’s of his career. There are no world beaters in this race and this guy gets a 7 pound weight advantage for Cardenas, who is capable. If he takes a liking to this track again we could have a nice winner at a good price to start off the day. #5 CARTHON is dropping to a career low level today as well after running consistently at OC 40K since breaking his maiden. The Beyer collection here is very solid and usually beats the Beyer par for this race. Dropping to this level is an interesting move and could just be to get a win hoping this gelding doesn’t get claimed. This guy hasn’t seen the winners circle since December of 2018 and is a nibbler at heart, hence the second place selection here.
Race 3: 4-7-6
#4 STUNNING PRINCESS has a sire who is 11% with his first time turf route starters, there is a good amount of turf pedigree here which is promising here. The jockey/trainer combo is 40% throughout last year and the trainer does well in debuts over a mile. Lastly we see some very decent workouts overall and that last work here on July 10th makes me very optimistic here. #7 LOST LAKE is the only one with a race under her belt and it wasn’t anything to marvel at. This horse is bred for grass much more than dirt so that last race can be thrown out. Reason I left under is because the trainer is 1 for 15 2 year old starters going dirt sprints to turf routes, but she is a player and could win here. Definitely consider her in your tickets as this is a tough race with no clear winner.
Race 4: 2-1-7
#2 DIXIE CANNON is coming off a race which I think she needed running first off a long layoff. She looked decent on the backside but ended up wide on the turn and was empty. The workouts have been extremely consistent since that race, which is very promising and even though she didn’t beat much in that last race it was her best ever Beyer. I think there’s a lot of room and right to improve here, the favorite, who is also the second choice, I feel is vulnerable due to the set up of the race and this is a better price play if you’re looking for one. #1 FRESCO is a maiden going up against winners but she has the best Beyer’s of the field and hasn’t been beaten by more than 2 1/2 lengths. Irad jumps back up here and the trainer is 3 for 7 with turf runners in ungraded stakes going sprint to route.
Race 5: 3-4-8
#3 NEW FRONTIER is a professional maiden coming back from the turf which this gelding clearly doesn’t like. His best Beyer came in his lone race switching from turf to dirt, and he ran 3rd in his lone race here at Saratoga. This guy is also 8 for 8 ITM on the dirt at this distance with some Beyer’s that beat the rest of this field handily. The 6/1 ML price is nice and for me this one looks to at very least hit the board but I think he can win over a lighter looking field. #4 AHEAD OF PLAN is also switching turf to dirt after a lackluster race last time out. This guy ran 2nd in both attempts on the dirt but hasn’t been seen since last August here at the Spa. Worth a bet as Chad Brown, remarkably, has his horses always ready regardless of layoff time, will be extremely short here due to connections.
Race 6: 9-5-1
#9 KITTEN BY THE SEA has improved in all three races she’s run in and goes for the three peat off the layoff today. Her last race, which was also her best Beyer, was impressive at this distance as she went to the front and never looked back. There is not a lot of speed in the race here, or at least it doesn’t look like it, and Jose should be able to clear this field from the outside post for the lead. With not too much pace pressure she could get loose on the lead. The workouts have been very consistent with this filly and I’m not too concerned with the layoff as Todd Pletcher is 24% off layoffs in this range. The lightly raced filly definitely has room to improve here. #5 BAREEQA is a mare who runs very well here at Saratoga being 5 out of 8 ITM. She has some of the best Beyer’s in the field and is also the most raced one. Irad jumping up here is interesting and her overall talent suggests she can run well in this race.
Race 7: 3-10-2
#3 FIERCE LADY went on the shelf and was brought to Rudy Rodriguez after having a coupe of off form races in 2020. In 2019 we see second or better in all four races and two of those (a win and a place) came here at Saratoga. The pace seems to set up well for a stalker here as there is a good amount of speed. This filly’s best race came when she stalked the pace and her tactical speed gives Joel options. The drop in class also makes me optimistic coming off of the layoff. #10 BERTRANDA has speed from the outside and gets Irad up here today. This mare has been ITM the past 6 races and ITM in all races this year so far. She finished 2nd at this level last time out and that bullet workout last time was promising. This one has a good amount of speed to clear the field from an outer post and to get position. This one is more of a nibbler which is why I am more confident to leave underneath.
Race 8: 9-3-2
#9 ITS A WRAP ran well first time off the layoff in its first race on the grass just getting nailed on the wire (DQ’d to 3rd). The versatility of this gelding will give Manny options to either use speed to clear from the outside post or to sit back and stalk. He’s proven he can run on this surface and I do expect some improvement here from this gelding. Consistent works and that bullet last workout makes me feel very confident in this race. #3 UNION COLONEL has had two races on grass and they’ve been honest enough. The improvement from his first grass race to his second was substantial and ran out of track that day. The extra half furlong should help this colt and Tyler jumping back up is promising as they’ve run well together in the past.
Race 9: 5-4-6
This is a field that could easily make up a stakes race, this is why Saratoga is so special. I’m going to go with #5 MIHOS in this extremely tough race here. There are two speeds in this race who should set quite the pace. This colt should sit off that pace that could very well break down if the track is playing fairly. Joel should be able to sit a nice trip here and have a good shot turning for home on a horse who does it’s best running in sprints. #4 HONEST MISCHIEF is the chalk here and there is good reason for this. Javier will have options here and will most likely sit a stalking trip off the pace. If the pace does break down here then this colt has shown that it has success stalking. It has run well at this distance with one win and a third in it’s two attempts. It ran well first off the layoff and could definitely find the winners circle here assuming it doesn’t stay too close to the pace.
Race 10: 6-11-8
#6 CONTINUUM was a little restless in his first run back off a long layoff. The trainer is 4 for 9 when dropping his dirt sprinters into these kinds of races and he’s 1 for 1 in that same stat here at the Spa. That last race got his feet back under him and I believe he should deliver a much stronger performance today. There are no world beaters here, his Beyer’s are solid, and overall he has a lot of room for improvement which could come looking at those consistent workouts. #11 FINANCIALSTABILITY is running second off the layoff and that race was clearly to get his legs back under him. This gelding has the best Beyer’s of the field and has run well here at Saratoga with a first and a third in three races, It does worry me that he’s been in worse form this year than we’ve seen before but a sharp drop in class here makes him the favorite. Not worth a solo win bet but a definite include if you’re playing exactas, trifectas and the like.