Hello all and welcome back to the Spa for another Thursday of action. Unfortunately here we have some rain in the forecast today. As always my twitter will be posted below and if the conditions do change or we go OFF TURF I will be posting additional thoughts there. I will be providing written analysis for today’s races with the anticipation that we will stay on the grass with a little give in it. I will also be handicapping the dirt for an off track condition. My off turf selections will be in parenthesis, however there will not be any analysis for those selections. Let’s get into this card as we need some winners to keep our positive record with top selections for this meet with 2 Thursday’s remaining.
Bet/Returned
$112/$121.40
Twitter: @EdPiluso
Race 1: 1-6-4
#1 MAJESTIC VIEW ran his best Beyer in the mud back in June at Belmont. He’s getting blinkers on today which may be able to get some life out of this colt. I also very much like the drop in class that he’s taking and his early zip is nice to see. For a dry track he may not be the pick and O would go with the second choice, but with some moisture in the track that gives him a very good chance I feel. #6 IMPERIO D is the most logical player here as this colt has the best Beyer collection in the field. Two of the best runs from this guy came from breaking in posts that were further out. Manny jumps back up and these two have hit the board in all their races together. As I said before if there is moisture in the track stick to this order, if the track is dry, he is the most likely winner.
Race 2: 6-2-1 (2-4)
#6 ALL OTHERS FOLLOW (GB) has had ascending Beyer’s in her first three starts and gets the best pilot of her career up today. It’s a Chad Brown filly on the turf which is always a very promising sight. This filly could have every right to improve here and be better than this field overall. She has a fantastic pedigree for the grass and the distance shouldn’t be a problem here as she’s run long before. #2 PRAIRIE WINGS switched to the turf last time out and ran a very impressive race just getting nailed at the wire. This filly went to the lead last time and almost didn’t look back. A cut back in distance today could help this $800,000 purchase to run a solid race as her last race was her best Beyer.
Race 3: 5-4-7
#5 SENTRY closed in to an absolute snails pace here in his first race off the layoff and just missed showing some solid kick. This gelding has won around or above this level before and Joel has ridden him to some of his best races. This race second off the layoff could mean we get some improvement here and the fact he held the best form of his life off a layoff is very encouraging. We will get a price here and this horse in 3 for 4 ITM here at Saratoga and 4 for 7 ITM at the distance. #4 VALUE PROPOSITION (GB) has the best Beyer’s overall in this field. The last race was a bit of a disappointing one and was beaten by a rival in this race who had a worse trip than anybody that day. I put her here because she can absolutely win and has a good amount of talent. She’s put on the under’s due to value and in my opinion, a lack of reliability.
Race 4: 4-5-1
#4 HEIGHT has done his best running in his past two starts and that last race here at the Spa was very solid at this level. That was his first time at this distance and that tied his best ever Beyer earned. Junior has rode him in all his career starts and gets the leg up here. We see some solid works since that last race and I really think this field seems lighter than the last one, he should score here. #5 TACTICIAN had some solid races at the beginning of the year. The trainer has some great stats, at 28%, in 2nd off this kind of layoff tries and he looks like the best of the rest here.
Race 5: 1-5-2 (1A-2B-8)
I really tried to find somebody to beat #1A DOWSE’S BEACH but this gelding looks like the most likely to win here. This guy has the best collection of Beyer’s in the field and he has some good early speed. Irad jumps back on after a decent showing at this level last time out. This guy does some of his best running at this distance and is 6 for 11 here at the Spa. We see a bullet workout leading up to this race and I think he’s ready to get a win here. #5 DIRTY won his only start when being up for sale. This horse is coming second off the layoff and I believe there is room for improvement. He does his best running at this distance, being 6 of 7 ITM at the trip and this is his lowest career level ever.
Race 6: 2B-1/1A-9
#2B MOSIENKO has had some good runs and some of her best Beyer’s on the grass. Joel is climbing back up after the race a week ago and Linda Rice is 18% going dirt to turf. She may have just been going for competition that was too good out west when she ran the turf. Rice is 7 for 21 with horses coming back in 7 days or less, decent value here but I’m not loving this race. #1/1A ENTRY has a couple of nice fillies and the Ortiz brothers up in the irons. One is dropping a level here and the other is coming off a solid maiden win here at Saratoga. Both have decent runs here at Saratoga and the 1A has a decent race at the distance as well.
Race 7 Smart and Fancy: 1-7-4
There’s a lot of horses to like in this race but I went with #1 ROSE FLOWER (GER) for a few reasons. One being the solid Beyer’s that she has run over yielding turf courses. That last race was first off the layoff and she clearly wasn’t too ready that day. I expect a lot of improvement off that, especially after that bullet workout on the grass here at the Spa. Her overall body of work looks very solid and there seems to be some speed in here for her to run at which is very encouraging. Finally, the jockey trainer statistic is fantastic with there two. #7 PEACEFUL has won here this year at the meet and is 2 for 2 over this Saratoga grass. This filly has also never finished worse than 2nd in 3 races (with 2 wins) and Tyler is jumping back up here after that win this meet. This filly does have a good amount of speed and with the speed in this race I do believe she will hang on for second but it doesn’t seem to set up for her to win.
Race 8: 3-2-6
#3 ONE EYED JACK runs extremely well at this distance and in 2 races has a win and a second. The layoff isn’t a big issue for me as Todd is 29% off of layoffs of 180 days or more and he has sent out runners who are ready to run in routes. His one race over this track at this trip was his best Beyer figure ever. We get the meets leading rider up and depending on the track conditions this guy could very well get us a price here at 5/1 ML. #2 TEXAS SWING has the best Beyer’s of this field overall and ran a solid 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby back in March. JohnnyV jumps back up here and this guy has some zip from the inside. The reason I’m leaving beneath is the fact he hasn’t run the distance, but he is very capable and could definitely win here.
Race 9: 6-5-3
#6 SECURE CONNECTION very much enjoys this distance with a win and a place in two races and is also one for one here in Saratoga. That win here at Saratoga was back in July and the first time Jose jumped up. He retains the mount today and this level isn’t over his head at all. The runner who ran second in her last race won the next race out with an improved Beyer figure by 3 points. The pace sets up very well for closer here as there is a lot of speed and she looks to be that closer that will win, #5 SARATOGA LOVE has some early speed and had a good run at this distance during this meet. Joel retains the mount today and is a very solid turf sprinter overall. There have been some very solid workouts since that last race and I believe that she should have enough to hang on to get a piece at a price after showing some speed.