Welcome back to the Spa, the August place to be! Last week we got rained out after 4 races and quite frankly we won’t talk about it. This weeks forecast is sun and 86 degrees as the high…. for the love of everything let’s hope the weathermen are correct. Let’s get hot and pick some winners at the Spaaaa!
Race 1: 3-9-10
#3 FROSTED ROSE is coming off a race at Laurel where he had some trouble. Almost dead last early on by 15 lengths and then gets bumped, angled out, and made a bid home where he made up over 10 lengths. Joel Rosario is the best finisher in the game and a better trip seems like an easy win here for him at 6/1 ML.
Race 2: 4-1/1A-3
Please let this be known, I am NOT going to be singling this top selection in multi race wagers! #4 LADY’S ISLAND is the top choice however as she has a lot of back class. Jose Lezcano jumps up today after a bullet work down at Gulfstream. She’s finished first or second in every race she’s run this year, a very strong contender in a very decent race.
Race 3: 1/1A-2/2B-9
#1/1A ENTRY has the horse who has run the best speed figure of those who have a race in this group. If he didn’t get off to an awkward start then the result that day could be different. We are getting a decent 9/2 ML price here for a duo who both have experience, one of which ran a very solid race.
Race 4: 1-7-5
I tried to find somebody to beat the top selection here, I didn’t want to play chalk. But in the end, I found nothing I could confidently say could beat #1 IDEATIONAL. This filly only has one race but ran it at a higher level, gained ground on the leaders, and ran on past the wire. We get a slight stretch out in distance today which I believe will help a lot. Irad retains the mount for turf king Chad Brown and this dropper should get the best of this field.
Race 5: 2-6-4
Of course a wide open race to end off the early pick 5, I would suggest going deep here if able. We are going to take a shot with #2 TIPLE (IRE) coming off that very nice maiden win. She came from dead last and over 12 lengths off to win last time out at 6 furlongs. That’s the best recent speed figure of this crop and Irad is retaining the mount today. She shouldn’t have to run as well as last time to win but she definitely can replicate that performance.
Race 6: 3-2-1
#3 GRAY NILE is finding himself at his lowest level to date after running a dud last time out. His last win and arguably his best race ever came at this distance over this oval. Luis Saez jumps back up today and he has inspired him to do some of his best running. His speed figures are collectively the best in the field and this should be another win over the Saratoga dirt.
Race 7: 5-6-3
#5 BLUE ATLAS has been running very consistently and is coming off a victory at this distance over at Pimlico in May. Her most consistent speed figures are the ones at this distance and we get Ricardo jumping up here today and he has been doing a very solid job at the Spa thus far. This filly has been ITM in 3 of 4 races this year and today looks to at very least do that against this crop, she has a very good shot turning for home stalking the pace.
Race 8: 1/1A-2-5
#1/1A ENTRY is a great entry from turf king Chad Brown and Graham Motion with the Ortiz Brothers and both their horses getting a drop today. I shouldn’t have to say anymore but I will. Both the entry horses have wins at this distance, the #1 with 2 wins and the 1A with one, with both of them one of those victories was over this turf course. They’ve both ran in graded and ungraded stakes, and have placed in graded stakes and are just head and shoulders above the rest here in my opinion.
Race 9 Birdstone Stakes: 8-1-7
#8 ROCKETRY is somebody who I’ve picked in these marathon races many times before. I see this as a two horse race coming for home between our top two selections. The reason this guy gets the nod? His ability to run over the mile and a half distance. Since September both races he has run over the mile and a half distance he has won, and Joel was up for both. Joel retains the ride today and he is the best in the field by far going a distance this long shot.
Race 10: 7-4-2
#7 SALTKING is coming off a layoff but ran a very solid race last time out where he just missed by a nose at the wire. That speed figured earned was the highest out of anyone in this field which insinuates if he runs like that again he will win. Landeros jumps back up which doesn’t worry me, it’s the finale anything can happen. His works have been decent enough and there’s a bit of pace for him to chase, giving him a good shot turning for home.