Saratoga Racing Analysis — Sunday, July 21, 2019, by Ivan Lopez

Let’s get quickly to the comments on a big Sunday card, with thirteen races on tap, including the Grade III Shuvee and the Grade I Coaching Club American Oaks.

1st race: 2 1/16 Miles. (Turf) Alw 65000n2L Purse $65,000 TO BE RUN OVER NATIONAL FENCES (UP TO $11,310 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

1-4-7 

Markhan with two straight wins looks tough in this hurdles race, but Renown and Whitman’s Poetry can give him a good run for the money. 

2nd race: 7 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L Purse $35,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES.

3-6-2

Brush County takes a steep drop from 40 to 16, but in the Spa this is nothing out of the ordinary. Diodoro hits at 31% dropping two classes. Business Cycle has been a bit of a disappointment, but this group is much softer than anything he has faced. Mandatory Payout has had trouble in his last two, hoping for a cleaner trip now. 

3rd race: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) MC 65000 Purse $55,000 (UP TO $9,570 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

9-6-7

Value Engineering has some more ground to work with a takes a bit of a class drop. Chad Brown takes no prisoners at the Spa. Heirloom Kitten has been trying to get to the turf, twice the race has been taken off. Now gets his wish and can be dangerous if he improves, as I expect. Foti has had some bad luck in his races, with a clean trip he can be a nice upset. 

4th race: 1 1/8 Mile. ™CCAOaks-G1 Coaching Club American Oaks Grade I. Purse $500,000 FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD.

1-5-2

Guarana looks like a star in the making. Question mark is the two turns, but was she has shown is nothing but talent. I will not be beat by her. Point of Honor has the experience edge over the favorite and she is a big threat if Guarana feels the additional furlong. Champagne Anyone is a very nice filly, with more seasoning that the two faves. Watch out! 

5th race: 1 1/8 Mile. Mdn 90k Purse $90,000 (UP TO $15,660 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

6-2-7

Majority Rules fell just short in his debut, now has an additional furlong to work with and Castellano rides back for Chad. Per Capita is another Chad Brown trainee that should be at or near the lead from the start, and with an easy lead he can wire this field. Spice Road has already crossed the wire first, but he was taken down. Two good works in preparation give him a fighting chance. 

6th race: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) ™Clm 30000n2L Purse $48,000 INNER TURF (UP TO $8,352 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD

4-1-6

Galadriel’s Light won her maiden easily in her most recent, and gave the impression that there was more in the tank. She already has experience at the distance and Linda Rice excels after a maiden win and sprint to route. Chestnut Street is maybe the filly to beat, but takes a bit of a suspicious class drop after breezing very leisurely. Chad got rid of her, so there is food for thought. Mamma Dee completes, now dropping to non winners of two after taking on straight claimers. Linda Rice again here. 

7th race: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) ™Mdn 90k Purse $90,000 (UP TO $15,660 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD.

7-10-1

Moon Pass with two very close losses in her only starts so far, if she repeats she will be a tough cookie to chew. Sequin debuts for Wesley Ward. I know this is not Keeneland, but she went for almost 35 times her stud’s fee, and its working daylights for her debut. Fly So Pretty ran well in her vow run, that one post is not the best for her, but the jockey upgrade is substantial and cant be overlooked. 

8th race: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 90k Purse $90,000 (UP TO $15,660 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.

2-7-9

Three Technique showed some promise in his first start, and now has some more ground for his run to be felt late. Jose Ortiz repeats with him. Mr. Thrifty is maybe the fastest of this bunch, and Carmouche is very good with speed horses. Will be prominent early. He’s Super Lucky debuts for trainer Kathy Ritvo and went for almost 13 times the stud fee. The dam of this colt was a champion here in Puerto Rico an Grade II winner at Laurel. 

9th race: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Alw 92000n1x Purse $92,000 INNER TURF (UP TO $16,008 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

2-8-5

Penalty gets the edge here in a very hard to handicap race. Coming from Churchill, were competition was pretty good, he didn’t disgraced himself and Alvarado is riding great. Halladay broke his maiden in his most recent, and looks that he has not reached his ceiling yet. Ortiz climbs aboard for Pletcher. Lohntwist can be the big upset here if he gets a clear lead, Landeros is a great jockey specially with speed type horses.

10th race: 7 Furlongs. OC 62500n2x Purse $95,000 (UP TO $16,530 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

3-8-2

Long Haul Bay returns from a three month freshening. He was running against much better horses and Castellano should put him on that first flight from when they spring the latch. Borracho comes from his best performance lifetime when losing by a length in the Woody Stephens. If that was no fluke, he will be right there at the end. Restoring Hope is maybe the speediest of this group, he can be long gone if no one goes with him early. 

11th race: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) ™CaressL200K Caress S. Purse $200,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

3-4-2

Fire Key ran great after slightly bobbling at the start in the Intercontinental. Jose Ortiz will put her right in contention and with a cleaner trip will be a factor from the gitgo. Significant Form is the strongest finisher in here, won the Intercontinental coming from seven months out and with some pace will be right there at the end. Broadway Run completes the selection, a very nice filly who always gives a good account of herself. Inside post is not good though.

12th race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) ‘Alw 80000n1x Purse $80,000 INNER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

10-8-4

Pipes has been running with better horses in quality, this race should fit him well. Franco is a grass specialist and I like him at that 5-1 morning line. Internet of Things hasn’t run in the turf yet, but pedigree says he should do fine and the group is not that tough for him. Monaghan broke his maiden last time out, Nevin is pretty good when coming back from a win and can be a noce exotics play.

13th race: 1 1/8 Mile. ™Shuvee-G3 Shuvee S. Grade III. Purse $200,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

1-5-8

She’s a Julie is tough as nails and that rail post and the lack of pace should favor her. Losing to Elate by a length and a half is no disgrace. Wow Cat is the best mare of this group, but she is coming from an eight month rest and maybe needs one. Electric Forest has the highest ceiling from this group and I am sure we have not seen the best of her yet.

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