Welcome back to Saratoga everyone! Always great to head back north for the summer, and we get the Saturday slate going with 11 very nice races this afternoon. I’m actually on-track today, so let me know if you’re roaming around the grandstand and we’ll grab a beer (or three). Good luck to everyone, and let’s have a great meet!
Race 1
10 – She’s Not Bluffing – she got a very nice stalking trip and won easily over Peggy Sue last-out at Belmont, and she should get similar setup today with all the speed signed on here. The Falcone barn hits at 27% with runners off the 31-60 day layoff and Irad picks up the mount from the more-aggressive Luis Saez.
2 – Incredible Miss – speaking of Saez, I like him to round out the exacta in here with a nice filly who finally had a good trip in the maiden-breaking win over the Belmont slop. Pletcher does well cutting back, and I like her inside draw to clear and settle behind my third choice early…
5 – Win the Shake – this one is going to be moving from the bell and I expect her to be on the lead. She tried allowance company last out and was in over her head, but I think today suits her just fine and she’ll be tough to reel in if she gets loose.
Race 2
5 – Linda’s Ballet – going to give her a pass in the last try after stumbling out of the gate in an off-turf situation. Her two tries before that were both very solid show finishes and she’ll be very live in here today. Linda Rice is hitting on 27% of her runners dropping from MSW to MCL, and a very sneaky 5 for 10 when removing blinkers. Jose Lezcano is riding lights out right now as well.
3 – Mike’s Girl – has fired all three times since the move to the Gargan barn and should have a very nice chance in here with not a ton of speed signed on. She’ll have to avoid the early duel with the 1, but Carmouche should be able to navigate his way to a shot at the top of the lane. Two career starts over the Saratoga lawn doesn’t hurt either.
9 – Mz Seb Pat – got a much needed break over the winter and it proved to be the right move, as the two June starts at Belmont were near-misses in stalk-and-pounce efforts. She should sit a similar trip to my top selection, and I will certainly use all three of these (plus maybe a few more?) in the early pick-5.
Race 3 – The Sanford, G3 $150k
3 – Cucina – this is a very salty field of five, all of whom have a very good chance in here… I’m going with the Mark Casse colt who showed impressive late kick to win in his second career start last month at Belmont, and I think the perfect set-up is there for the taking today. Speed all around him, and I think he settles off the pace and runs them all down.
4 – Tomato Bill – the $500k Saratoga sale purchase won wire to wire at Delaware Park in his career debut and tries stakes company today for trainer Christophe Clement. He has great speed but will need to go up another level against these, as he surely won’t be alone on the lead this time. Still, no reason to think he doesn’t improve in start #2.
5 – By Your Side – stalked nicely to win in debut at Churchill and gets Irad today, who should try to sit a similar trip. He’s the only one in the field who won at 5.5 panels as well, so the added distance will be less of a question mark.
Race 4
6 – Zyramid – only one of two horses in here with a start under their belt and the Asmussen barn hits with 20% of their maiden second-timers. Manny Franco gets the mount and he’ll try to rate the $275k purchase a little better today.
1 – High Tide – it feels like Pletcher has lost his fastball a little bit lately, but what better way to get things turned around than with a 2yo first-timer on opening Saturday at the spa? Johnny V will take this colt from the rail and try to improve on the barn’s 23% clip with debut runners.
3 – Irked – Bill Mott isn’t known for pushing horses too fast too early, but a $250k War Front colt is probably worth taking an early swing with at the Saratoga meet. The works have been steady, and he even tossed a turf work in there for good measure.
Race 5
8 – Catch a Thrill – Mark Casse took a swing at G2 company over a mile at Keenland and things didn’t go to plan, but we’re back today at her preferred distance and I think she’ll get enough pace to run at from the outside draw.
1 – Originator – the heavier favorite amongst the coupled-entry is a stalk and pounce runner, but the chilly inside slots in these turf sprints at the spa might require her to be more aggressive. Still, the speed figures seem to be a cut above, so I’m certainly keeping in the exacta and wouldn’t be surprised if she rolls.
10 – Helen’s Tiger – this one hasn’t missed the exacta but once in 5 career starts, and should definitely be hustled out of the gate with that early speed. Saez is an aggressive rider and I think he gets her in contention at the top of the lane.
Race 6
I’m glad this race isn’t a part of either pick 5, because two year-old maidens going two turns on the grass isn’t something I’m running to the windows to bet with confidence. That said, the wild nature of these races requires at least a minor investment, so with that in mind I’m throwing a few bucks on #6, Mr. Everything. Wesley Ward debuted this one at 7.5 panels in South Florida, now brings her here on the stretch-out to try and continue his 30% success with maiden-second timers. #4 Enforcable has ran two pretty solid races at Churchill and could be in for an improvement today, and #3 Field Pass rallied nicely in his debut in Louisville and stretches out for Mike Maker. Small potatoes race for me, but a fun one nonetheless.
Race 7
9 – Amundson – broke the maiden in the second career start at Delaware and did so quite impressively over a sloppy track last month, and comes back here into state-bred company to face a salty bunch. Trainer Horacio DePaz connects on 32% of runners second-off this layoff and the outside draw should give him a clear shot on the turn.
2 – Special Story – well here’s my first swing on a Fingerlakes shipper at the 2019 Saratoga meet and I feel pretty good about it. He has hit the board in 8 of the last 9 and picks up Lezcano for the spa debut, and we can’t ignore the 10: 3-2-2 record at today’s six-panel distance.
8 – Red Zinger – has a place and a show in his only two Saratoga starts and will give allowance company a second go-round after a speed and fade last month at Belmont. He’ll cut back from the mile and try to rate a little bit I would imagine.
Race 8
7 – First Wave – on one hand Rusty Arnold is 0-29 with maiden second-timers, but on the other he hits on 30% of his turf sprinters and has this one geared up after a nice debut in the Churchill slop. Can she handle the turf just as well? I think she gets a great stalking trip and gets the money.
2 – Tan and Tight – “and the award for horse name that represents the exact opposite of my physical appearance goes too”……. All jokes aside, I think the Chad Brown-trained filly could be the lone speed in here if she improves off the Monmouth debut, and the barn is great with first-time turf runners.
6 – Peaceful – another Monmouth shipper coming off a solid debut, this one for Jonathan Thomas who is a 33% trainer with turf-sprinters. Likely a heavy favorite at post-time and deservedly so after rallying from the brutal break in the first start, I’ll try and beat her with better prices until we see that she can handle the early stages of a race. Must-use in horizontals.
Race 9 – The Chad Brown Derby (a.k.a. The Diana, G1 $500k)
Has a trainer ever hit all four spots of a superfecta? While that is something to keep an eye on in a ridiculous running of a grade 1, there are two horses in here that will lock horns in the lane and it should be very fun to watch. Quite simply, I’m going with #4 Sistercharlie to spring the minor upset over the ultra-sharp #2 Rushing Fall in a battle of Breeder’s Cup winners. There should be just enough speed to push Rushing Fall a little bit, and I think Sistercharlie will find herself closer to the pace than normal and use that late kick to get the job done. This is a nice field, but it looks like a heavyweight prize fight between two of them today.
Race 10
4 – Uber Kirk – he’s been sharp since Thanksgiving and runs his races with the versatility that should come in handy in this spot. The last effort at Churchill was impressive, and his 7/6 work indicates he’s ready to roll today. Lezcano gets the mount and I hope the price stays right where it’s at.
5 – Payne – Chad Brown has the favorite in here, and similar to my top selection he’ll try to benefit from a potentially hot pace. He’s run two good races at today’s distance and will be a tough out. Big exacta play here as I begin to lean towards Caroline Street.
2 – Where Paradise Lay – has yet to run a bad race in his young career and should sit a nice trip if he lets the two to his inside and outside get free and set the pace. Wouldn’t shock me at all if he found the wire first.
Race 11
#7 Prognostication is the clear favorite in here and has earned that with his 4: 2-1-1 at Saratoga, but I’m taking a swing with #8 Patriot Drive going for his third straight win and his third at today’s distance. The bullet work on 7/6 makes me think Danny Gargan has him cranked to break the spa maiden. #4 Derby Champagne hasn’t been sharp lately but has won at the spa and has finished ITM in 12 of his 27 career starts. Hunch play to round out the tri and wrap up the first Saturday of the meet. 8-7-4 for me.
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 327: 79-62-49, -19.4% ($654 wagered, $526.90 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 24.2%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 58.1%