From today on, I will be analyzing Saturday’s cards at the Spa, and we begin this new venture with a solid ten race offering, in which the Grade I Diana serves as the feature. Let’s go to the analysis right away:
1st race: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 72k Purse $72,000 (UP TO $12,528 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.
3-7-1
Wesley Ward debuts After Five (3) in this grass sprint, and that means he is live. This son of The Factor has been working great for his vow run and Irad wants that champion jockey trophy. Right now is tied with his brother Jose and Joel Rosario comes in third. Rosario appears here with My Sea Cottage (7), who debuted on the dirt, but his pedigree screams turf from top to bottom. Mark Casse has been cold as ice in the Spa, but he is too good a trainer for remain that way, and I think this one can improve off that debut. Foliage (1) is another one that is working nicely towards his debut. That rail port is not ideal, but given he find the space, I think he can be dangerous. As I always advice in these kind of race, with six out of the eight participants being first time starters, go deep in your horizontals, and the All button is a distinct possibility.
2nd race: 6 Furlongs. Clm 25000n2L Purse $43,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES.
4-2-3
It is normal to feel uneasy about Airtouch (4) and his drastic drop in class, after being extremely competitive against much better horses. But this group is so bad that him being a shadow of what he was should be enough to send him to the winner’s circle. Of course, I don’t recommend singling, so Macho Jack (2), who just won his maiden with some in the tank, is the one that can go wire to wire in here. Joel Rosario will look to put him on the lead and see if he can go the whole way. Kilmarknock (3) is another one that just won his maiden against much softer company, but the light bulb angle can apply here, and at 12/1, is an interesting proposition.
3rd race: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 74000n1x Purse $74,000 (UP TO $12,876 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
5-6-2
That last race for French Reef (5) is way better that any race any horse in this group has run ever. It is almost impossible for him to repeat such an outstanding effort, but he can regress a bit and still win. He looms large in here. Cryogenic (6) just missed in a similar group last time out. He will need a hot enough pace to run at and he might get it. Irad repeats in his saddle. I have been a Montauk Daddy (2) believer over his career. That last race is a throw out, now Linda Rice takes the blinkers off and returns him to a sprint. If there is a surprise, it can be him.
4th race: 1 1/8 Mile. Clm 20000 Purse $40,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
1-3-6
The Big Fundamental (1) ran like a horse that needed that last race, which was his first in sixteen months, in a distance not suitable to his style. Now, going a trip in which he hasn’t been out of the money, and dropping to a much easier spot, I expect a much improved effort on his part. Super Dude (3) is also taking a steep dip in class. He should be stalking the leaders and come with his late run from the three sixteenths pole on. Heavy Roller (6) has burned some money lately, but he is 2 out of 4 with a second at this 9 furlong distance and should get a nice setup, with good speed in front of him.
5th race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 72k Purse $72,000 INNER TURF (UP TO $12,528 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.
3-1-8
Sifting Sands (3) is making his career debut for the powerful Chad Brown barn. That pedigree doesn’t looks like one that we may find here regularly. Seems to be ready for a prime effort and Jose Ortiz has resurfaced here at the Spa as a top choice for trainers. Thorn (1) showed some speed in his debut at 5 and a half furlongs, now stretches out to 8 and a half and looks like an intriguing proposition at 15-1. Trainer Bill Mott hits at 18% first time routing. Winfromwithin (8) ran against Reinvestment Risk, who so far is the most impressive two year old I have seen here at the Spa. New surface, but Pletcher hits at a high rate doing this, so is not out of the question.
6th race: 6 Furlongs. ™‘MC 25000 Purse $40,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
7-5-8
Difficult race to analyze due to the lack of quality shown by the participants. First time starter Shenandoah Girl (7) comes from a very good barn and her works are good enough to give her a decent chance, and I think you will get very close to the 5-1 morning line odds. Love Me Tomorrow (5) is the fastest in here, and if Dylan Davis can control her speed somewhat, she can have something left in the tank to try to hold the closers. In her most recent, she put up extremely fast fractions and understandably tired late. Happy Hi Lil (8) was eased in her last race, but has two works to return from a month break, so her connections feel she is ready to fire once again. Watch out!!
7th race: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Alw 74000n1x Purse $74,000 INNER TURF (UP TO $12,876 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS
7-4-8
Lonesome Fugitive (7) had some traffic problems that could have costed him the win last time out. Interesting that Chad Brown puts blinkers on him, something you don’t see very often. Apparently wants him closer to the pace, lest see of the change in equipment does the trick. Assiduously (4) faltered in his most recent, but that was at nine panels. Now he cuts back to a mile, Irad repeats in the saddle, and we don’t see that much speed signed in here. Kingmeister (8) ran well off the bench for his new trainer Shug Mc. Gaughey, with some further improvement he can get the job done.
8th race: 1 1/8 Mile. OC 62500n2x Purse $76,000 (UP TO $13,224 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
1-6-2
Blewitt (1) returns to the dirt after a not so successful experiment on the turf. The mile and an eight is a bit of a question mark, but we can say the same about some of his top rivals in here. His entry mate Legit can pick up the pieces late if there is a hot pace up front. It’s All Relevant (6) returns to the level in which he has performed the best. Looked way out of league in the Alydar, but against these, he deserves a lot of consideration and Saez is an improvement in jockey. Growth Engine (2) completes the selection, taking a step up in class after an easy win at Monmouth. He needs to take a step forward, but with only five races lifetime, that is not out of the question.
9th race: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) 4strdavH-G1 Fourstardave H. Grade I. Purse $400,000 INNER TURF A HANDICAP FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
5-8-1
Halladay (5) wasn’t able to dictate the pace in the Bernard Baruch, but today I think he can be the one that controls this race from a pace standpoint. Get Stormy is the only other bonified speed influence, and her last races leave a lot to be desired. Without Parole (8) always finds a way to lose races in which he was supposed to win. Now tomorrow I think he will be somewhat forgotten, and Irad maybe will put him closer to the pace, and looks very dangerous. Raging Bull (1) was Joel Rosario’s choice over Uni, drew well in the rail and if he can have a setup for his late run, he will be right there at the end.
10th race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Clm 40000n2L Purse $49,000 (UP TO $8,526 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE
YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES.
9-1-2
Rakeez (9) returns from a seven month break running for a tag for the first time. Chad Brown wins at a 46% clip making this kind of move, and should be at or close to the lead from the start. Letterman (1) is another one making a return from a long layoff, eleven months to be exact. He ran well in similar company in his most recent and his works signal readiness for a successful return to the races. The big upset here can be Kid Chocolate (2), which I bet last time out and had some problems at the start, and didn’t have enough pace to close into. At 15-1 and with Franco on the saddle, looks good for the exotics.