Race 1
2 – Blackberry Wine – the debut at 5.5 furlongs was taken off the turf, and Joe Sharp brings him back for a two-turn try on the grass this time around. The barn hits with 20% of their maiden-second-timers, as well as 20% with their first-time turf runners, so this feels like a nice spot to bet him back at a price. I’ll use the two Chads to round out the exotics and go with 2-1-3.
Race 2
2 – Slimey – tons of speed in here with the favorites, so I’ll use Lezcano on the late-running Slimey (3: 2-0-1 at Saratoga) dropping in for a tag for the first time since the last victory opening weekend at the Spa. She’s coming back on seven days rest for David Cannizzo, a confident move on the class-drop. Looking for things to get hot up front early and hope the extra ½ panel will be enough to get her rolling by in the lane. 2-1-4
Race 3
10 – Hurricane Hill – a very impressive late-running effort for third in the debut after breaking poorly, and did so at a huge price. Jose Lezcano rides for Linda Rice, who connects with 30% of her maiden-second-timers, and should get a nice stalking trip from the outside stall. Needs a clean break, but with all the speed signed on he could get the perfect set-up. 10-6-7
Race 4
8 – There He Goes – didn’t miss the exacta in six tries in as many months before stumbling last-out downstate in early July, but he was claimed by Rob Atras after that start and will look to improve on the barn’s 28% clip with first-off the claim runners. He’ll likely try to grab the lead early and walk them around, and he very well could do it with not much speed signed on. Break clean and don’t look back Manny! 8-1-4
Race 5
8 – Midnight Tea Time – certainly not the most obvious choice in here, but definitely a play with the pace scenario that might unfold. He’s drawn outside and has a chance to get the early lead to himself, which has proven to be a simple but effective angle at the spa thus far this summer. The last two tries in optional claiming haven’t gone well, but Joe Sharp is a 22% turf trainer, we pick up Castellano today and the horse is 5: 0-2-2 over the Saratoga lawn. Will use the big Clement favorite along with Lezcano in the exotics. 8-7-2.
Race 6
5 – I Can Do Anything – he’s run two very nice races in his last couple tries at Churchill and comes in today for the lightly-featured Stanley Hough barn. I very much trust these Kentucky shippers in the allowance ranks, and this one is pairing back to back 82’s to go along with his nice early zip. The three local works have been very sharp, with the last two coming on the lawn. Sanatana gets the mount and he has a good shot at clearing the inside horses to grab the lead. Wire job very possible on the cut-back. Will try and beat Chad and I like the inside horse for Gaffalione to grab a piece as well. 5-8-1.
Race 7
7 – Excession – the debut was anything but memorable, but Asmussen always has them ready to roll in their second try and he gets his main man back in Sanatana. This is a very tough baby race so I’ll be spreading in the first leg of the late pick five, but I’ll go 7-1-4 for my top three and throw in 2,3,6 for the big ticket.
Race 8 – The Smart N Fancy, $100k
1 – Fire Key – gets the inside draw and has speed in a race lacking pace, so she feels like a natural play in this spot. 5: 2-1-0 at the spa and retains the services of Jose Ortiz. Look for a clean break and watch out…. 1-5-7
Race 9 – The Lake Placid, $200k G2
4 – Blowout – couldn’t hang on to beat the stable-mate in the Lake George but gets another crack today in a full field (as opposed to two combatants in the Chad Brown Derby) and should be able to set the pace up front. There won’t be a ton of pressure on the lead, so Jose Ortiz has a chance to walk them down the backstretch and should appreciate the added distance (3: 1-2-0 at 1 & 1/16th). 4-5-6
Race 10 – The Alabama, $600k G1
7 – Point of Honor – Dunbar Road is going to take a lot of money and should be a deserved favorite, but I’m worried about the distance at the short price and instead will look towards the George Weaver filly looking to stretch-out after the very impressive CCA Oaks try. I like the two inside horses (including the aforementioned Dunbar Road) to set the pace before my top choice swallows them up in the lane. 7-1-2.
Race 11
The 2 (Sweet Meadow Mist) looks to be the one that will get the set-up in here, so I’ll use her on top and hope Rosario gives one of those patient rides with the pace getting hot up front. I’ll use the 5 (More Mischief) for Chad Brown getting a stalking trip as well, and will put the down-on-his-luck Dylan Davis in the third spot with the 3 (Not About the Nail) getting a clean late-run. 2-5-3 with 6 &9 added in to close out the late pick 5.
2019 Saratoga
Week 1 (7/13): 11: 4-3-0, +47.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $32.50 returned)
Week 2 (8/3): 11: 2-3-0 -23.2% ROI ($22 wagered, $16.90 returned)
Week 3 (8/10): 11: 5-1-1, +97.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $43.50 returned)
Total – 33: 11-7-1, +40.8% ROI ($66 wagered, $92.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 360: 90-69-50, -13.9% ($720 wagered, $619.80 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 25%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 58.1%