Race 1
5 – Wicked Freud – drops in class today and stretches out for Jason Servis, who connects on 28% of runners going from sprint to route. His last four races have been very good, he likes today’s distance (6: 0-1-3) and should sit a nice stalking trip.
6 – Blame the Thief – hasn’t been too successful on grass but has good early speed and has shown some versatility while hitting the board in 10 of 27 career starts. Santana stays aboard after the July effort at Belmont, and should be able to sit a similar trip today.
2 – Startup Nation – the likely post-time favorite for Chad Brown is well deserving and has been a model of consistency for the past four years, but he’s coming off a long break (November of 2017) and likely needs a heavy pace to close into. Big ask at a short price off that vacation, but I obviously respect the connections enough to keep in the exotics.
Race 2
7 – The Joke’s On You – stalked beautifully in the career debut at Belmont last month and Lezcano stays aboard for a barn that hits with 21% of second-start maidens. The 8/1 work over the Oklahoma track was sharp and it appears all systems are a go for the natural progression in the return to the starting gate.
6 – Bassman Dave – has the early speed to get to the front in here and has hit the board in both career starts at today’s six panel distance. The last two works look good, and I expect a possible wire-to-wire attempt in here.
9 – Quiet Out East – another short-priced closer type that will likely go off as the favorite; I certainly respect the Clement barn, but unless he gets near the pace early I don’t think it sets up for him well enough to support at these odds.
Race 3
8 – Fame to Famous – made the career debut going 1 & 1/16th on the Saratoga lawn two weeks back, went off at 51-1, had tons of trouble and still rallied to grab fourth (less than two lengths off the winner). This one SCREAMS bet-back and that’s exactly what I’ll be doing. Picks up Saez who will naturally be aggressive, and that should help avoid any early issues.
4 – My Sacred Place – the only two career starts have come in turf sprints at Monmouth, neither of which being overly impressive. So why is Jason Servis bringing him to New York and running against tougher? This one feels like a trainer play, and the barn does hit on 28% of runners going sprint to route.
7 – Decorated Invader – closed very nicely in the debut on opening weekend and draws outside this time instead of on the rail. Will be a short price and loses Irad, so I’ll keep underneath.
Race 4
8 – Wicked Trick – seems to have finally found his preferred surface on the dirt after a frustrating 0-13 turf career, and looked great in finally breaking the maiden last-out. Will face winners for the first time today, but he’s the only one with a win at the spa and I think we’re looking at another forward move today.
2 – Bustin Mach Four – I’m drawing a line through the most recent start as he stumbled early and never had a chance. If you can remove that from the running lines, what we have left is a speedy gelding that has hit the exacta in both tries at six furlongs and I like his chances at a price to do it again.
1 – Elios Milos – tried allowance company first-off the long layoff and finished up the track, but came back at the Spa on opening weekend to run a tough fourth at today’s distance. This field fits and I think he runs a nice race.
Race 5
7 – Tumbling Sky – NYRA really made the closing leg of the early pick 5 challenging with this baby race, but alas, here I am “confidently” taking the Asmussen runner in his first career start. The $200k Competitive Edge purchase is working well and looks cranked for the debut. Going 7-1-2 here and throwing the 9 in for the pick 5.. and yes I know the 2 is a $1.4mil American Pharoah trained by Chad Brown…..
Race 6
5 – Catch a Thrill – three tries at the distance, three appearances in the old exacta. Lost a heartbreaker opening weekend but comes back today in a race with plenty of speed and Joel should put her in the perfect stalking spot. Watching the tote on this one, as the 3-1 ML is very attractive considering the pace scenario.
4 – Turf War – the Chad Brown filly makes her second North American start and will get some pace to run at in here, I’m just banking that everyone bets her down do the barn success and we get the price we want on the winner.
7 – Saint Moon – most impressive of the speed, I think she stays for third once everything collapses.
Race 7
8 – Cardiac Kid – in a field of first-timers, we’re rolling with the only runner that has race-experience thanks to this DRF Formulator gem courtesy of Mike Beer – Kenny McPeek, past five years, 2yo maiden, second start, first Lasix, turf to dirt: 5 for 13, 38%, $3.92 ROI. This is another wild baby race and it unfortunately kicks off the late pick-5, but we’re going 8-7-1, and throwing the 2 & 3 in for the pick 5.
Race 8 – The Saratoga Special, G2 – $200k
1 – Noose – Churchill shipper for Eddie Kennaelly won on debut coming off the pace at six furlongs, and enters a race today with an abundance of early speed. Put up a bullet work in Kentucky on 8/2 and should certainly get a pace-setup today. Inside draw and the proven distance ability puts this one in the top spot for me.
7 – Peruvian Bay – Julian Leparoux gets the mount today on the Tapit colt who won off the pace in his second career try. Similar to our top choice, the speed should be ideal in front of him and we’re looking at a very generous price to round out the exacta.
3 – Green Light Go – the ML favorite for Jimmy Jerkins can flash a ton of speed and has impressed breaking from the gate in recent workouts, but at a short price in a field with this much speed I have to try and beat.
Race 9 – The Fourstardave Handicap, G1 – $500k
6 – Get Stormy – with many folks looking towards Uni to beat the boys for the first time in the history of this race, I’m going with the filly in the bunch to make waves against a very salty bunch. Mark Casse is bringing her back on seven days rest after an absolute jog in listed stakes company at the spa last weekend. She is 10: 6-1-2 at today’s one-mile distance on the lawn and will get the perfect set-up just off the early speed. Who runs the world? Girls.
8 – Hembree – stone cold closer for Mike Maker will retain the services of Luis Saez and try to improve on his solid record on the Saratoga sod (5: 1-3-0). Things could get just quick enough to set it up for the big exacta here….
9 – Made You Look – Chad Brown brought this one back off the long layoff last month to finish a close fourth in G3 company and must be respected here today second off the bench, especially at anything near the ML price.
Race 10
3 – Alisio – could he be the lone speed in here? Kiaran McLaughlin is hitting on 31% of runners coming off the +180 day break, and this one ran second in his only try at the distance. Going 3-7-6 here, and adding 2&4 in the late pick 5.
Race 11
9 – Valmont – in a pretty uninspiring race I like Manny Franco’s chances to take them gate to wire, and I’m going 9-5-3 to round out the very-tough late pick 5.
2019 Saratoga
Week 1 (7/13): 11: 4-3-0, +47.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $32.50 returned)
Week 2 (8/3): 11: 2-3-0 -23.2% ROI ($22 wagered, $16.90 returned)
Total – 22: 6-6-0, +12.3% ROI ($44 wagered, $49.40 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 349: 85-68-49, -17.4% ($698 wagered, $576.30 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 24.4%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 57.9%