Happy Friday from the Spa! Weird day yesterday, rain came out of nowhere and ended up cancelling half the card. My guess is that races today will be off the turf, I gave picks for both surfaces in case but I’d imagine they’d like to keep the turf course in decent enough shape for the Bowling Green on Saturday. The Early pick 5 sequence was handicapped for on turf first, after is off turf. As always follow me on twitter for updates and scratches @cjfelts87.
Race 1 MCL 20k F+M 3up, 6 furlongs
3-5-8
#3 Countenance drops in for a tag for the first time coming off a 4 month layoff, he has shown speed running against msw company, gets a top jock in Jose Ortiz and Cristophe Clement is 30% switching from msw to mcl. 3-5 ML so either single in your exotics or pass.
Race 2 Msw 78k state bred 2 yo, 1 1/16 miles turf
8-5-1A/1X-2
This seems like a pretty wide open race and I landed on #8 Assault Breaker. This second time starter stretches out after showing a mild kick in a dirt sprint last out, seems like a pretty logical spot for trainer Jonathan Thomas who is 31% in 2nd career starts. 5/2 ML favorite. #5 No Lime was purchased for nearly 10x his stud fee, Junior Alvarado does well on the turf and with horses with no designated running style (ie first timers). Could be a nice value play at 5/1. The 1A/1X entry is a 3 horse Repole Stable entry (plain 1 is an MTO), both were intriguing in their own right, both trying turf for the first time after running in dirt sprints. 7/2 second choice.
OFF TURF 1-2-4
Race 3 Alw 92k n1x 3up 5.5 furlongs turf
8-6-4-5
I would go 3 deep in this race if I was playing mutlis but #8 Bourbon in May is my top choice based on his slight class edge on the rest of the field. He showed speed and was involved in the early pace in a listed stakes going 7.5F at gulfstream last out, now drops in distance for Todd Pletcher. 3/1 ML. #6 I can do anything is the favorite at 2/1, was trying to play against him here with the slightly higher price, he’s 3/3 ITM on turf, was involved last out going a mile at Churchill and switches back to Julien Leparoux who broke his maiden with him. #4 All systems go is a versatile type of runner, thinking this lightly raced 4 year old will sit off the pace and will grab a piece late.
OFF TURF 11-2-5-7
Race 4 Aoc 62.5k n2x, F+M 3up, 1 ⅛ miles
6-1
#1 Queen of Beas is the 4-5 ML favorite and I’ll try and beat her with #6 Indy Union. She’ll need a setup in this race with this stalker style but there is enough speed coming from the 3 to play into her hands, has won before getting said trip with Junior aboard, 5-1 ML. That said it’s quite obvious that Queen of Beas is the horse to beat, gets class relief after running in the G1 Acorn last out but I’ll happily play against her here.
Race 5 Clm 12.5k F+M 3up, 6 furlongs
1-6-8
This race is a rematch between #1 Moondance Joy and #6 Wildcat Belle, last time out Wildcat Belle won by a head but this time I think Moondance Joy will get the best of the two, there’s a ton of speed in this and she holds the best late pace figure in the field, looks like Wildcat Belle will have a speed duel with the 2 and Moondance Joy will take advantage. 7/2 ML. #8 Ivy’s College Fund is coming off 2 straight wins at Monmouth, thinking this race falls apart and she can hang around to grab a piece.
Race 6 Msw 90k F+M 3up, 1 3/16 miles turf (1 ⅛ miles off track)
(On turf 5-9-8-7)
OFF TURF 3-1-8-6
#3 Beau Belle is the only horse in here that has shown ability on the main track, granted many of these have never been on dirt. Still, I think she makes the most sense should this race come off, which it looks like it probably will. #1 Funny Flowers has run well enough over 2 turf races, should she stay in here she could be dangerous, has some of the better mud pedigree compared to her competition so I think she will run well on dirt. #8 Passive Investing is one of two entries in here for Chad Brown (8 and 9, note they are uncoupled) has early speed and will come out firing.
Race 7 Str Alw 50k F+M 3up, 7 furlongs
3-8-5-1
There’s a lot of value to be found in this race and I’m going with #3 Dizzy. This 3 year old filly ships up from Gulfstream Park after running in a 75k listed stakes race and closed well, with a good amount of speed in this race I think it will set up nice for her at 6/1 ML. #8 Olive Kat is also a big price at 10/1 ML, another shipper coming from Parx, gets Joel Rosario aboard and I think she will appreciate running back to 7 furlongs compared to her shorter sprints. #5 It was Considered should be considered underneath, lightly raced 5 year old at 3/1 was too short a price to put on top.
Race 8 Aoc 40k n2x state bred 3up, 5.5 furlongs turf
(On turf 8-10-5-2)
OFF TURF 12-16-11
#12 Mo Diddley was involved in the early pace in a state bred listed stakes, now drops to the n2x condition, won the n1x condition on an off track race, now 3rd off the layoff for Mark Casse and John Velazquez hops aboard. #16 The Caretaker should draw in as an MTO, has run well against open company and now faces state breds off the layoff, Luis Saez hops aboard. #11 Fear ran a career best speed figure last out at 7 years old, that may be a sign of his peak but it’s close to par and he has run well over off track courses.
Race 9 Curlin stakes 100k 3yo, 1 ⅛ mile
1-3-6-5
I’m going with #1 Intrepid Heart in the Curlin. His recent works indicate he’s still in good shape after the grueling 1 ½ mile Belmont, he was only beaten 5 lengths in the Belmont and 6 lengths in the G3 Peter Pan, in a softer spot I like him to sit a couple lengths off the pace at the half mile pole then make a move when needed. Johnny V stays on. #3 Looking at Bikinis is the 5/2 ML favorite, will be tough to beat but I don’t think he will offer much value in this spot. #6 Direct Order seems like a logical contender to round out the tri or super, has been running consistently ITM his past couple starts.
Race 10 pass
Through 8 Daily Gallop writeups: 61-16-9-11 (26% win, 59% ITM)
Average $2 ROI at Saratoga (13 races)- $3.32; $26 wagered, $43.20 won