Last Friday we didn’t do so hot after the rain washed us off the turf, did get a winner home but it was chalk. Hope to do better this week, forecast looks clear for friday but expect some moisture in the turf with rain wednesday and thursday, good to firm is my guess. Early pick 5 sequence looks pretty good and I have some pretty strong opinions in this card, as always follow me on twitter for updates and scratches @cjfelts87. Here we go:
Race 1 MCL 25k state bred 3up, 7 furlongs
5-3-2
#5 Bourbon Mission drops in for a tag after running in msw company, showed a good late kick on turf last out, 0 for 3 gelding gets blinkers and trainer Todd Pletcher has a 37% strike rate when dropping in for a tag. I would expect him to be bet down to around 4-5 so don’t expect much of a price. #3 Legion Storm raced last friday at Saratoga in a 20k Mcl going 1 mile and one eighth, claimed by Rob Atras whose 21% first off the claim and 22% switching from route to sprint. #2 Quintarelli has flashed speed in the past, chart says he bled after his last race and is coming off a 2 month layoff with slow works, but still think he will set the early tempo and hang on for a piece.
Race 2 Clm 25k 3 yo fillies, 7 furlongs
5-4-6-3
If you’re playing the early pick 4 or 5 this would be a good race to spread in. I see this as a four contender race and I’m gonna go with #5 Queen Kaheen. Irad hops back on after trying turf and will enjoy the class relief, with a lot of speed in this field she should get a nice trip and Linda Rice is 22% with the surface switch. #4 Bronco Sally is a versatile type of runner who should sit off the pace and do her running late, use underneath. Don’t discount #6 Carrizo, probably the best early speed in this bunch, Carmouche will send her early but I thought she would falter once the pressure gets put on. Maybe we see an early Irad and 5/5 double?
Race 3 Msw state bred fillies and mares 3up, 5.5 furlongs turf
11-10-5-2
#5 Doll should be the post time favorite and I will try to beat her in this spot, another tough race if you’re playing multis. #11 Corey Scores has shown late speed in her only two turf starts, now second off the layoff for Chad Brown and there is a chance you could see a decent price on her, 8-1 ML. #10 Tatterazzi is a bit of a longshot play, one of two first time starters in this group, but the grandsire War Front is an underrated turf sire and trainer John Terranova has a positive ROI with debut turf runners, plus a positive ROI over the last year when he teams up with Luis Saez. Would end up being an Irad triple if the top 3 picks come in.
Race 4 Clm 20k 3up, 7 furlongs
5-1-4-7
#5 Getoffmyback has the best early speed of this bunch, will use him to try to beat the 3 shareholder value who will probably be overbet. One of two entries (note that they’re uncoupled) for trainer Robertino Diodoro who actually claimed him back, his last race he got a terrible trip and now switches to Luis Saez who will send this gelding to the lead. 5-1 ML. #1 Javelin ran the best speed figure of his career here at Saratoga, clearly likes the surface and the race will set up nice for him too. #4 Sir Ballentine seems like a logical contender to finish underneath, will enjoy the class relief and Michael Luzzi has been ITM a few times so far at the meet.
Race 5 Msw 90k, 2 yo fillies, 6 furlongs
8-2-4
#8 Sweet Kisses makes her second career start for Jeremiah Englehart, I like her to show improvement and be in the mix late. #2 Kiawah Sunset is a Wesley Ward 2 year old and may be overbet, switches to dirt for the first time after running in a very hot pace last out. #4 Inveterate looks to be the best of the first time starters, Dermot Magner is 23% with debut runners, being by Palice Malice and the grandsire Curlin she may want extra distance down the road.
Race 6 Str Alw 50k 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
11-2-7-12
#11 Cross Border will be the second choice on the ML at 9/2 and has the ability to sit right off the pace and then show that late kick when needed. After sitting on the sidelines for over a year looked like he needed a race when finishing second beaten a head at this level last out. Luis Saez stays on and horses that have showed good form at Woodbine seem to handle the turf here fairly well, see Mr. Havercamp in last week’s Forbidden Apple stakes. #2 Willing to speed has 3 seconds at this level, Irad hops on and looks like he could have a pretty big day being on a couple of my top selections. #7 Clear for Action is the ML favorite, was originally gonna use him as my top pick as an early speed horse but he does not expect to be a lone speed, there will be pace pressure and dont think he will have enough down the lane.
Race 7 Aoc 62.5k n2x 3up, 1 ⅜ miles turf
9-3-5-7
These are the only 3 horses that have at this distance and at races going this long it’s nice to prefer horses who have proven themselves going long. #9 Pillar Mountain is a stalker type for trainer Todd Pletcher, one of two in here for him, got up to win by a nose at the n1x level last month at Belmont and now steps up to the n2x condition but looks to be in good form and should be running late. #3 Sentry won his first try at this distance back in November, finished fourth at this level closing pretty well last time out and Manny Franco hops back on. #5 Violent Blue has been experimenting with different distances at this level for James Toner, beaten only a length and a quarter at this distance last out, think he will be in the mix late.
Race 8 Aoc 80k n3x 4up, 6 furlongs
1-2-7
This is a really competitive race and I landed on #1 Seven Trumpets. He’s dropping in class from a couple grade ones including the Breeders Cup dirt mile, a race where he showed speed and also a forwardly placed move in the Grade one Malibu at Santa Anita last december. Starts off his 4 year old campaign dropping into the n3x condition which fits him well and has put up some very quick works for Dale Romans so no question he is fit and will be ready to run. #2 Engage is also dropping in class, coming off a layoff but quick works and Chad Brown is 29% off the layoff.
Race 9 Grade 3 Lake George, 3 year old fillies, 1 mile turf
1-7-2
Chad Brown has 3 in here, ended up on #1 Regal Glory who has good late speed and should be running late, will probably end up being the highest price of the three at 7-2 ML. #7 Blowout is the 2-1 ML favorite for guess who? Won a listed stakes last out at Belmont and should be competitive in this spot. #2 The Mackem Bullet is one of 2 here for Wesley Ward, won last out over a soft turf at Keeneland, raced in the Breeders cup last November so they see some promise in her, worth a shot to hit the board.
Race 10 Mcl 40k 3up, 1 ⅛ mile
1A-5-10
Stats through 7 Daily Gallop writeups: 54-11-8-11 (20% win, 56% ITM)