Hope you played along last week, 5 on top winners even though it was a chalky day. Hoping we stay on the turf but with some rain in the Saratoga area last night they may take a few of the grass races off to preserve the course for the weekend. As always follow me for updates on twitter @cjfelts87 and good luck if you’re playing today!
Through 9 Daily Gallop writeups: 80-22-15-15 (28% win, 65% ITM)
Saratoga Meet ROI off $2 win bet: $2.50 ($62 wagered, $78 won)
Race 1 Clm Nw2L 30k, 3up, 5.5 furlongs turf
4-1-3-9
Chalky way to start the day but I thought that #4 El Dulce made the most sense at 8-5 ML. He takes blinkers off and drops from the n1x allowance level down to his eligible nw2L claiming condition. Trainer DePaz Horacio has a positive ROI with 1st time claimers and has positive numbers taking the blinkers off. Positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz and expect him to sit off the pace in a race loaded with speed. #1 Yes and Yes put up a career best speed figure at this level, another one dropping in class from the starter allowance level, his regular jock Dylan Davis stays on and he hasn’t been great at Saratoga but decent enough on the turf and I thought he had a good shot to finish ITM. Yet another class dropper in #3 Smooth Tales, drops in from restricted stakes and cuts back in distance, has enough speed to be competitive here for Linda Rice.
Race 2 Mcl 40k, 3up, 1 1/8 miles
8-2-3
I landed on #8 Strike Silver here, his last race at this level he put up his best speed figure and it’s the closest to par in the field, 2nd start for Bruce Brown who spouts positive numbers with second time runners. 5-2 ML. #2 Bebeau seems the horse to beat for Todd Pletcher and Starlight racing, drops in from msw company where he was beaten by eventual Kentucky Derby winner (technically) Country House, so he has been running against better competition but he was too short a price for me to put on top. #3 Oso Negro would be my third choice 1st off the claim for Eric Guillot, his last race was second best to Derby Memories who romped that field, expect this stalker type to be running late and maybe pick up some pieces.
Race 3 Str Alw 50k, 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
6-2-5-1
#6 Much Trouble is the ML favorite with Irad aboard for Michael Maker, finished second by a neck at the n1x level and now drops into the starter allowance level, stretches out to a route and has good late closing speed for a trainer who is 20% 2nd after the claim. #2 Willing to speed comes out of a similar race, 3 seconds in 4 starts at this level, expect him to be in contention late. #5 Red Right Hand comes out of the same race as Willing to speed, finished third in front of a fourth place for WTS, got caught in traffic last out so hoping for a better trip here with Javier aboard.
Race 4 Msw 78k state bred 2 yo, 5.5 furlongs turf
9-10-7-11
#9 Fly Fly Away makes his turf debut who is 20% debut turf and 22% making the surface switch, gonna take a gamble that this colt likes the footing at 4-1 ML in his second career start. #10 Lord Camden is a first time starter, for Mark Casse, purchased for over 10x his stud fee, good last workout breezing from the gate and Casse does well with first out runners on turf. #7 Portfolio Hedge goes out for Klaravich and Chad Brown, not often you see Luis Saez teaming up with CB but they have a positive ROI doing so this year. Should he draw in as an AE, consider #11 Turbo Drive as well.
Race 5 Aoc 62.5k n2x 3up, 1 ⅛ miles
1-2
I think this race is pretty straightforward and #1 Lone Sailor will be tough to beat as the ML favorite. Similar to El Dulce in race 1 as he takes blinkers off and drops in class, blinkers off can be a good angle to play and obviously Lone Sailor has the back class to be competitive taking a drop down, stakes placed and winner of a grade 3 last year is gonna make him very tough to beat. #2 Spinoff seems like the most logical contender to use underneath, they tried him on turf for the first time in the Belmont Derby and that didn’t go to well so now he’s down to his eligible condition and should at least finish in the exacta.
Race 6 Msw 90k fillies 2 yo, 5.5 furlongs turf
1-7-6-12
Another maiden special on the turf for 2 year olds, I’ll take a shot with #1 Leaveuwithasmile at 12-1 ML. Hopefully she can leave us with a smile here, purchased for 10x her stud fee, Jeremiah Englehart shows some good numbers in these maiden races especially with debut turf runners, these races are always a bit unpredictable so I figured why not throw a bomb in here. #7 Indochine is one of 2 entries in here for Chad Brown (uncoupled), gotta figure at least one CB will hit the board so why not play the higher price. #6 Boston Beauties goes out for Todd Pletcher and Luis Saez, has some good turf pedigree and some good works on both dirt and turf. Should she draw in, consider #12 Mom’s Pass as an AE, would be the only horse in the field with experience.
Race 7 Clm 25k 3up, 7 furlongs
4-7-10-5
This was a really tough race especially with so many horses 1st off the claim and I landed on #4 Eagle Pass. This early/presser type horse has Kendrick Carmouche in the saddle who should get this horse the trip he needs to be successful. He’s coming off 2 of his best races this year and I think he’ll give another big performance today. #7 Shareholder Value is the logical favorite, he comes off 2 straight wins beating horses he’ll face today, 1st off the claim for Michael Micelli. #10 Big Muddy comes in first off the claim for Linda Rice, gets her top jock in Jose Ortiz who has a good shot to hit the board with a pace setup.
Race 8 Aoc 62.5k n2x fillies and mares 3up, 1 mile turf
9-10-4-5
#9 Andina Del Sur has the best late closing speed of the bunch here, Luis Saez has ridden him before in stakes races and now he drops down to the n2x level, against stakes company he was finishing only 4 or 5 lengths off the winner so he should no problem versus softer company here. #10 Victorine starts off his 2019 campaign after running against tougher last year, he’ll enjoy the class relief but I would wait and give him a race first off the layoff. #4 Malakeh has been competitive at the n1x level, finished fourth at a stakes race at Laurel last out and Javier hops back on.
Race 9 Tale of the Cat stakes 100k, 3up, 6 furlongs
2-4-6
#2 Killeybegs Captain put up a very good 3rd in a grade 2 last time, has a lot of speed which will help him with the pace scenario, Ricardo Santana is very aggressive with these early speed types and I think that will help him late. #4 He Hate Me just won at the n3x allowance level here at Saratoga, now steps up to stakes company, have a feeling it’s gonna come down to the wire between these two but I think he’ll be bested late. Maybe an exacta box wouldn’t be a bad play here. I like #6 Ruler of the Nile has won 3 straight rising in class each time, Manny Franco won with him last time so don’t rule him out as he is a logical contender in this race.
Race 10 Aoc 80k n1x fillies and mares 3up, 1 mile turf
9-8-10-1
#9 All Quality is a lightly raced filly who technically has never been beat, only reason he is eligible for this race is because last out at the n1x level at Woodbine he crossed the line first but was DQ’d to ninth. Chart says she was ridden out and that was a 7.5 furlong turf sprint. Plus she has shown ability breaking her maiden over the woodbine tapeta and now switches to turf here which is one of my favorite angles to play. 8-1 ML. #8 Dancing Vega is a European invader for Chad Brown, we all know he does well with these imports and she is the higher price of the two uncoupled CB runners. May be better off putting money on her to Place than to Win. #10 Panther Hit seems like a logical contender to finish underneath, Luis Saez stays on and was beaten 3rd in a tough race at this level last out.